Download Talk Slides [pdf]

Statistical Challenges and
Opportunities in the
Semiconductor Industry
Joel Dobson
Texas Instruments
Pstat®
A chronology of buzz words
Laplace! Bayes.
Statistician (& Mark Twain’s quote, Fisher)
Total Quality Management
Six Sigma Black Belt, ISO, TS,…
Data mining
Thinking statistically
Big data, Data scientist
What next? Distributed computing, cloud,
Hadoop®, Google tools®…..
Images from: Wikipedia web page and Amazon web page.
10
Thinking Statistically & Statistical Engineering
Started by Dr. Roger Hoerl formerly of GE now at Union College, Dr. Ron
D. Snee, and others
• Variation exists
• Maybe more than one
variance, or mixed models
• Continuous Y versus categorical Y
Line on a scatter plot,
box plots, ROC curves, …
• Paired data or not? Longitudinal?
Repeated measures.
• Risk as an average loss or an average utility
• Converting prior information into posterior
Image from: Google image search for “Hoerl and Snee” at SAS Institute.
11
Our role in the SC industry
We do not need to invent much. (But can)
Be aware and use what exists.
But, be sure to enjoy!
What can go wrong?
Don’t like the original CPK definition? Just redefine it….
Perhaps most dangerous? --- Type IV errors
12
The four errors
One is reject the null when true.
Two is to NOT reject the null when false.
Three is answering the wrong question well.
Four is using a deeper method than needed.
13
From ASA
newsletter
web
page.
14
Our role in the SC industry
Beware of the democratization of statistics.
By analogy to medical practice…
The skills must be appreciated on both sides.
Jargon is a two way street. Learn device physics.
Images from: 1.mediabistro.com, 2. http://lotsasplainin.blogspot.com/
and 3. publicoccurrenc.blogspot.com
15
Image from: Amazon web page.
16
Who was Tom Bayes?
Recent book
The Reverend Bayes
Bayes rule
Image from: Amazon web page.
17
Sematech Statistical Council (SSC)
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sematech in Austin
Yearly Fall Conference
One of the parallel sessions
Attrition of statisticians at Sematech
The work with regard to AIAG books
Applied Reliability by
Tobias and Trindade
• NIST Statistics Handbook
Image from: 1. Google image search and 2. from a personally shared photo.
18
Our
call
to
action
From ASA
newsletter
web
page.
19
Differentiating yourself as a PStat
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
You cannot be passive! Was Steve Jobs?
Sell your skills widely. Set a marketing plan. Blog!
Get to know your IT & corporate communications people!
Make videos when teaching. Didactic pedagogy.
Innovate then give presentations, but target your pitch to your
audience.
Be able to explain in terms of finance: revenue or profit.
Service and standards outside your company.
Seek patents every chance you get.
Consider yourself lucky to help others. Enjoy and thrive.
Mutual admiration, opportunity abounds, fame
Optimism is a muscle. ( Robin Roberts quote )
20
Image from: Amazon web page.
21
Image from: Amazon web page.
22
Bayesian statistics
Image from: Amazon web page.
23
Hierarchical
We may have several variances.
Fabs:
lots, wafers, chips, cross to tools or batches
Assembly and test sites: (AT)
AT lots, chips, and then cross to fab lot.
Tester, Handler, Loadboard, Test Site (quadsite, etc)
The bivariate tests may be inappropriate.
Do not take sample sizes from a bivariate test.
Much harder with >1 variance! (Brendler, IBM)
Random effects models or mixed models.
The whole censored data topic.
24
Engineering Significance
• Some call this “Meaningfulness”.
• Practicality?
• For example, two processes may be statistically significantly
different in the mean but the difference is practically
meaningless.
• Correlation…
Picture from Linked In’s Kevin Anderson site.
25
Statistical Software (one example)
Excel®
JMP® or Minitab®
R® or other for scripting
Home grown ETL
26
Recent Excitement
The world is our oyster right now!
Best jobs ----- USA Today 4/19
1. Mathematician,
2. Tenured Professor,
3. Statistician,
4. Actuary
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/04/19/cnbc-best-and-worst-jobs-of-2014/7881247/
27
Recent Excitement
Medical clinical trials:
Sequential methods, ethical concerns
Human genome (HGP®: Craig Ventner,
Francis Collins now leads the NIH in DC)
Better hazard methods
Open BUGS®
Better predictions
Repeated measures
Time structures of covariance (ARIMA)
28
Join Us !!
MOOCs online. Just Google search ‘MOOC’ or ‘MOOC Statistics’.
Get on to various monthly newsletter list. (inside and outside)
Take CE courses:
{ ASA JSM, R, JMP, DOE, other }
Local R Users group third Saturdays at 10 at U of D near DFW airport
Weekly seminars. SMU in Stats and at UTD in Stats. Free.
Local ASA – Dallas Monthly ASA meeting at SMU third Thursday at 7 pm.
Brad Efron was here on 2/27 at SMU as the first Schucany lecture.
Many RSS feeds from statistical blogs.
Use Feedly reader to find them, or any other topic.
Follow us or connect on Linked In.
Images from: zimbio.com/pictures after a Google image search,
and SMU Dedman School web page
29
References List:
Screen captures from Amazon web site.
30
References List:
31
Screen captures from Amazon web site.
References List:
32
Screen captures from Amazon web site.
References List:
33
Screen captured from Amazon web site.
References List: (Earlier but harder to read)
Screen captured from Amazon web site.
34
References List:
Brand new but check those reviews…….!!
35
Screen captured from Amazon web site.