Download Investment Financing Statistics

APCAS/16/8.3
ASIA AND PACIFIC COMMISSION ON
AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS
TWENTY-SIXTH SESSION
Thimphu, Bhutan, 15-19 February 2016
Agenda Item 8
Investment financing statistics (Government expenditures, Credit to
agriculture, ODA, Foreign Direct Investment and Country Investment
Profiles)
Contributed by:
Sangita Dubey,
FAO Statistics Division
[email protected]
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Investmentfinancingstatistics(Government
expenditures,Credittoagriculture,ODA,
ForeignDirectInvestmentandCountry
InvestmentProfiles)
Sangita Dubey & Brian Carisma
Statistics Division, FAO
APCAS26: Thimphu, Bhutan, 15-19 February 2016
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Outline
1. Context
2. FAOInvestmentStatisticsInitiative
3. Keyfindings
4. Challenges
5. ProposedRecommendation
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Context – Investment data purpose & goals
ü AgriculturalInvestmentavitaldriverof
productivityandgrowth,withinvestment
datanecessarytomonitortrendsand
informpublicpolicy
•Investmentñè Productivityñè
RealIncomeñèFood Securityñ
•AddressMarketFailures;Smoothfarmer’sincomes
Twotypesofinvestmentdata:
1. Physicalinvestmentinagriculturalcapitalstock(laterpresentation)
2. Totalvalueandsourcesoffinancing:domesticandforeign,publicandprivate
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Context: Growth in ACS and hunger reduction
ü StrongcorrelationbetweenthegrowthinACSandhungerreduction
AnnualratesofACSgrowth(1990-2005):bestandworstperformingcountries
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Background – Agricultural Investment Framework
Domestic Flows
Private
Domestic
Savings
Informal
Borrowing
Credit to
Agriculture
Public
Domestic
Government
Expenditure
*Sourcesinredrepresentprivateequity.
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Foreign Flows
Public Foreign
Development
Flows to
Agriculture
Private Foreign
Foreign Direct
Investment
Foreign
Remittances
Investment Statistics Initiative: Datasets, source and status
Government
Expendituresin
Agriculture(GEA)
Development
Flowsto
Agriculture(DFA)
ForeignDirect
Investmentin
Agriculture(FDI)
Credit/loanstofrom
Commercial Banks
Domestic
Government
Spendingon
Agriculture
SpendingbyDonor
governments,
International
organizations
Spendingbyforeign
companies
CentralBank
websitesand
publicationson
Financial Statistics
FAOQuestionnaires
tocountries
OECD’screditor
reportingsystem
data+FAOfinancial
information
Fromdatacompiled
byUNCTADandthe
UNSD
Secondupdatein
FAOSTATunderway
Secondupdatein
FAOSTATinearly
2015,3rdglobal data
collection underway
Dissemination
launchedinFAOSTAT
Firstdatasetaboutto
bereleased
Creditto
Agriculture(C2A)
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Investment Statistics Initiative – Background/Mandate
Statisticsand
Agricultural
Commissions
needforbetterdataandmethodologytomonitor
governmentexpendituresonagricultureandrelated
investmentfinancingstatistics
Work plan, approach and methodology presented to FAO member countries
1
• ApprovedandendorsedbyAFCASmembersin2013
and2015
2
• ApprovedandendorsedbyAPCASin2014
3
• ApprovedandendorsedbyCommitteeonAgriculture
(COAG)in2014
4
• Approved andendorsed byLatinAmericaandCaribbean
CommitteeonAgriculture &LivestockStatistics(IICA)in2015
Statisticalfindingsfromworktodatefollowsnext…
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Investment Statistics Initiative – Background
Approach
•
Minimizecostandduplicationbyreusingexistingavailabledata
•
Maximizequalityandconsistencybyusingofficialcountrydatawhere
possible,andexistinginternationalguidelines/methodologies
•
harvestofficialdatafromnationalstatisticsoffices,centralbanks,
andotherinternationalorganizations
•
CollectdatadirectlyfromcountriesusingFAOquestionnairesto
obtaindetails/informationnotelsewhereavailable
Addvalue:createnewindicators,suchasagriculturesharesoftotal,
agricultureorientationindices,geographicaggregations,aggregations
acrossfinancingsources,countryinvestmentstatisticsprofiles,etc.
•
“Agriculture”referstothebroaddefinitionofISICRev3.
SectionsA+B,whichincludesagriculture,forestryandfishing
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GEA share of public spending highest in Asia & the Pacific after 2007: The
3.6% share of 2001-2007 rose to 4.4% in 2008-2009 after the Food Price Crisis. Pre
crisis levels resumed after 2010, but remained higher than in other regions.
AgricultureshareofGovernmentExpenditures(%)
5%
Africa
4%
Asia
3%
Europe
LatinAmerica
2%
Others
developed
World
1%
0%
2001
2002
2003
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2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Key findings for GEA: the top 10 countries in average agriculture share of
government expenditures, 2001-2012 included 4 APCAS members:
Bhutan (1st), Nepal (2nd), Bangladesh (3rd), China-mainland (5th) and India (6th).
Bhutan
10.5
Nepal
9.3
Bangladesh
8.9
Belarus
7.9
China,mainland
7.9
India
7.8
Latvia
7.2
Zambia
7.1
Swaziland
6.1
Namibia
6.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
%ofagriculture spending to total govtexpenditures
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In most developing countries in Asia and the Pacific, public spending is less
oriented to agriculture than developed countries. Low AOI countries include
Indonesia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, which have large agriculture sectors.
AgricultureshareofGDP
70
Agriculture OrientationIndex
4
3.5
60
3
50
2.5
40
2
30
1.5
20
1
10
Morocco
CentralAfricanRep
Liberia
Lebanon
BurkinaFaso
Greece
Indonesia
Nigeria
Tanzania
Kyrgyzstan
ElSalvador
Madagascar
Palestine
Mozambique
Egypt
Pakistan
Afghanistan
Kenya
Georgia
Uganda
Argentina
Guatemala
Ukraine
Serbia
Israel
Angola
Maldives
Nepal
Sweden
Jamaica
SaoTomeand…
Denmark
Jordan
Zambia
Panama
RepofMoldova
Malaysia
Iceland
Portugal
Hungary
Seychelles
Cabo Verde
0
0.5
%AgriValueAdded,average(2008-2012)
AOIaverage(2008-2012)
AOI-GEA INDICATOR:
Measures the agriculture share of government expenditures as a ratio
of agriculture’s contribution to GDP. An AOI>1 shows agriculture orientation.
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0
Among APCAS members, only the Republic of Korea and Japan had an AOI
for GEA of over 1.
Agriculture OrientationIndex
AgricultureShare ofGDP
70
4
60
3.5
3
50
%AgriValueAdded,average(2008-2012)
AOIaverage(2008-2012)
40
2.5
2
30
1.5
20
1
10
0.5
0
Turkey
RussianFederation
Philippines
Lesotho
Bahamas
SriLanka
Thailand
India
Oman
Azerbaijan
Chile
Spain
Bulgaria
Tunisia
Australia
Poland
Slovenia
Algeria
Germany
SouthAfrica
Austria
China, mainland
Kazakhstan
CostaRica
Namibia
Croatia
Belarus
Cyprus
Swaziland
Botswana
Norway
Ireland
Slovakia
Mauritius
Malta
CzechRepublic
Lithuania
RepofKorea
Japan
Switzerland
Luxembourg
0
AOI-GEA INDICATOR:
Measures the agriculture share of government expenditures as a ratio
agriculture’s
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Key findings C2A: By 2013, developing countries in Asia and the Pacific
were the second last region in terms of share of total credit to agriculture.
OtherDevelopedreferstoAustralia,NewZealand,Japan andNorthAmerica
Theseresultsmayreflectfinancialsectorevolution andcollateral
provided byagriculturalproducers.Developed countrieshavemore
evolvedfinancialmarkets,andhigher sharesoflargeandcommercial
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farmsabletoprovide collateralagainstloans.
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Key findings C2A: The top 10 countries in agriculture’s share of total credit included
two countries APCAS members: New Zealand (2nd) and Iran (7th).
Chart2:Top10Countries- AgricultureShareofTotalCredit,
2008-2012Average
Tajikistan
NewZealand
Belarus
BurkinaFaso
Zambia
SyrianArabRepublic
Iran(IslamicRepublicof)
Uruguay
RepublicofMoldova
Ethiopia
0
5
10
15
20
5-yearaverageshare,%
25
30
35
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Key findings C2A: In most countries in Asia and the Pacific, credit is less
oriented to agriculture. Going to the next slide, we see ...
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4.5
0.40
4.0
0.35
3.5
0.30
3.0
0.25
2.5
0.20
2.0
0.15
1.5
0.10
1.0
0.05
0.5
0.00
0.0
DOTS - Agriculture Orientation Index (AOI) for Credit
0.45
Mexico
Guatemala
Iraq
Jordan
Israel
Tunisia
Burkina Faso
Trinidad and Tobago
Guyana
Malaysia
Syrian Arab Republic
Kazakhstan
India
Namibia
Serbia
Russian Federation
Costa Rica
Ecuador
Philippines
Azerbaijan
Belize
United States of America
Peru
Seychelles
Ukraine
Zambia
Czech Republic
Panama
Dominican Republic
Sri Lanka
Bolivia (Plurinational State of)
Hungary
Republic of Moldova
Estonia
Maldives
Gabon
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Uruguay
Tajikistan
Brazil
Argentina
Canada
Italy
Belarus
France
Australia
Germany
New Zealand
BARS - Agriculture Value Added Share of GDP
… for APCAS members, only New Zealand, Australia, Iran and Sri Lanka had
an AOI for C2A of 1 or more, indicating an agriculture orientation.
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Key findings DFA, 1995-2013: total flows rose to $260 billion (constant 2013
prices), but agriculture’s share fell to $14 billion, or just over 5% of the total
300
TotalDevelopmentFlowsinconstantUSD
billions,andAgricultureShare(%)
7
10
6
250
DFAtoAgricultureinbillionsconstantUSD,
byRegion,1995-2013
8
5
4
100
Food Price
Crisis,
2007-08
2013USD(billion)
150
Share(%)
6
4
3
2
2
50
1
0
TotalDFA(left-axis)
AgricultureShareofDFA(right-axis)
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2013USD(billion)
200
LAC
Unspecified
Europe
Africa
Asia&thePacificandAfricacollectivelyreceivedalmost80%of
Development FlowstoAgriculture (DFA) between1995and2013...with
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Africaleading afterthe2006-2007food pricecrisis.
displayed.
Asia&Pacific
http://faostat3.fao.org/browse/I/EA/E
Agriculture ValueAddedofGDP(%)
30
1.2
25
1.0
20
0.8
15
0.6
10
0.4
5
0.2
0
0.0
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-
35
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aveAFF shareofGDP2009-2013 (leftaxis)
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
DFAAOI Index
1.00
40
AOI- DFA(rightaxis)
1.4
FAOSTAT facilitates easy visualization of where/how DFA is spent …
Agriculture OrientationIndex ofDFA
Turkmenistan
SyrianArab…
Jordan
PapuaNew…
Tuvalu
DPRKorea
Tonga
SolomonIslands
Micronesia
Thailand
Kiribati
Oman
Myanmar
SriLanka
Vanuatu
Pakistan
Mongolia
VietNam
Nepal
Bangladesh
Stateof…
Afghanistan
MarshallIslands
Yemen
Armenia
Indonesia
Tajikistan
Cambodia
Georgia
Palau
Maldives
Bhutan
Kyrgyzstan
Uzbekistan
LaoPDR
Samoa
Turkey
India
Iraq
Philippines
Kazakhstan
Malaysia
China,mainland
Lebanon
Nauru
CookIslands
Iran
Azerbaijan
Fiji
Timor-Leste
Key findings DFA, 1995-2013: the A&P region had an AOI between 0.2 and
0.6, showing development flows to the region were not agriculture-oriented.
Among APCAS members, only Fiji and Iran had AOIs of 1 or more.
DFAAOIforAsia&thePacific
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
1.6
FAOSTAT shows: top 10 donors (by recipient); the top 10 recipients (by donor).
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Key Findings FDI: Anticipation of and reaction to the Food Price Crisis of 2007
and 2008 saw growth in FDI to agriculture, as more Transnational Corporations
and institutional investors sought to acquire land, access to water, and an
increasing share of agro-food trade.
FDI inflows to AFF, 2005 USD (billions, lines) by region, 1997-2011
4
3
2
-1
Africa
Europe
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LatinAmerica&Caribbean
NorthAmerica
Asia&Pacific
OtherDeveloped
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
1998
1
1997
FDIinflowstoAFF,2005constantprices($billions)
5
Between 2004-2011, the top 10 recipients of FDI inflows to agriculture included
three APCAS members: China-mainland (1st), Indonesia (4th), Vietnam (10th)
VietNam
Germany
Egypt
Belgium
Ghana
France
Malaysia
Austria
RussianFederation
RepublicofKorea
Uruguay
UnitedStatesofAmerica
Indonesia
Spain
Brazil
Japan
Argentina
China, mainland
China, mainland
Malaysia
0
200
400
600
800
FDIinflowstoAFFin2005USD(millions)
1000
0
200
FDIoutflowstoAFFin2005USD(millions)
400
…whilethetop10sourcecountriesforFDIoutflows to
Agricultureincluded:Malaysia(1st),China-mainland(2nd),Japan
(3rd),andtheRepublicofKorea(6th).
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Country Investment Profiles (CIPs): 2007-2013 average
agriculture investment shares of total, select countries
Bhutan CIP
15.89
12
10.84
12
8
5.78
8.00
5.36
4
2.25
1.28
3.93
GEA
GFCF
0
0
FDI
DFA
C2A
GEA
GFCF
FDI
Agrivalue
added
India CIP
DFA
C2A
Agrivalue
added
China, mainlandCIP
16
16
Percent
8
11.15
4.41
4.11
4
Indonesia CIP
16
Percent
Percent
16
14.09
11.56
12
12
8.89
8.81
7.59
8
7.49
8
7.60
5.08
4
4
2.65
1.30
0
0
FDI
DFA
C2A
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GEA
GFCF
Agrivalue
added
FDI
DFA
C2A
GEA
GFCF
Agrivalue
added
CIPs: 2007-2013 average agriculture investment shares
of total, select countries
Philippines CIP
12
10.83
Percent
Percent
12
8.13
8
6.69
5.40
8.19
8
4
0.11
FDI
DFA
C2A
GEA
GFCF
6.27
5.39
5.07
4
0
MalaysiaCIP
16
16
5.11
GEA
GFCF Agrivalueadded
0
Agrivalue
added
FDI
DFA
C2A
KazakhstanCIP
TurkeyCIP
16
16
12
12
Percent
Percent
3.52
3.99
8
8.50
8
5.75
3.36
4
4
3.98
2.22
1.80
0.36
FDI
FDI
DFA
C2A
GEA
4.28
0.41
0
0.05
0
3.18
2.78
DFA
C2A
GEA
GFCF
GFCF Agrivalueadded
Agrivalue
added
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CIPs: 2007-2013 average growth rates for select countries
Bhutan CIP
30
Indonesia CIP
30
25.94
20
10
20
15
Percent
Percent
25
10.58
9.96
10
5
1.68
0
DFA
C2A
GEA
GFCF
Agrivalue
added
-20
-16.8
-30
-40
-50
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GEA
GEA
GFCF
3.26
Agrivalue
added
-50
GFCF
2.75
Agrivalue
added
Percent
Percent
-10
C2A
C2A
China, mainlandCIP
25
8.08
DFA
6.66
-40
12.6
0
FDI
DFA
30
10
4.47
-24.7
-30
India CIP
16.64
FDI
-10
30
20
18.77
-20
2.19
FDI
1.74
0
20
15
17.69
15.29
11.8
9.67
10
3.79
5
0
FDI
DFA
C2A
GEA
GFCF Agrivalueadded
CIPs: 2007-2013 average growth rates for select countries
Philippines CIP
20
20
1.25
GFCF
Agrivalue
added
0
FDI
-10
DFA
C2A
GEA
(3.96)
-20
8.85
10
3.48
Percent
Percent
9.91
5.92
10
FDI
-10
DFA
C2A
-40
-50
-50
GFCF
(3.51)
Agrivalue
added
(41.52)
KazakhstanCIP
TurkeyCIP
30
140
118.95
120
100
80
60
40
20
6.1
C2A
15
10.20
GEA
2.96
5
0.89
1.68
GFCF
Agrivalue
added
0
DFA
20
10
22.6
FDI
-11.2
26.11
25
Percent
Percent
GEA
(2.42)
-30
-40
-20
2.15
3.42
0
-20
(24.00)
-30
MalaysiaCIP
30
30
3.09
0
FDI
DFA
C2A
0.29
GEA
GFCF
3.26
Agrivalue
added
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CIPS: 1991-2013 key trends for select countries
BhutanCIPtrend
Indonesia CIPtrend
50
20000
45
MillionUSD
Million USD
40
35
30
25
20
15
16000
12000
8000
4000
10
GEA
FDI
C2A
DFA
-4000
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
GFCF
GEA
IndiaCIPtrend
140000
DFA
GFCF
China, mainlandCIPtrend
MillionUSD
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
160000
120000
80000
40000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
MillinoUSD
C2A
200000
120000
0
FDI
GEA
FDI
C2A
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DFA
GFCF
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1991
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
5
GEA
FDI
C2A
DFA
GFCF
CIPS: 1991-2013 key trends for select countries
MalaysiaCIPtrends
Philippines CIPtrend
9000
3000
8000
MillionUSD
7000
5000
4000
2500
2000
1500
1000
3000
500
2000
1000
GEA
FDI
C2A
DFA
-500
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1991
1992
0
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Million
6000
GFCF
GEA
FDI
C2A
DFA
GFCF
TurkeyCIPtrend
KazakhstanCIPtrend
3000
12000
1500
1000
10000
8000
6000
500
4000
0
2000
-500
GEA
FDI
C2A
DFA
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
MillionUSD
2000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
MillinoUSD
2500
GFCF
GEA
FDI
C2A
DFA
GFCF
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Investment Statistics Challenges
ü Determining the composition of Country Investment Profiles
(graphics, tables, analyses)
ü GEA: low and declining response rates; lack of data collection or
compilation at country level
ü C2A: lack of access to data and metadata (due to non publication or
collection), and lack of consistency in standards and definitions
ü FDI: Poor data coverage of FDI inflows to agriculture, lack of
access to UNCTAD data
ü Sub-sector detail: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing statistics not
separately provided or collected, and hence not available
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Proposed recommendations for discussion
ü MembercountriescommittoimprovingresponsetotheFAO
GEAquestionnaire,andtocollaboratingwithFAOtoimprove
CentralBankreportingofCredittoAgriculture.
ü MembercountriesrecommendthatFAOprovidetechnical
assistancetomembersinimprovingthecollectionand
reportingofGEAandC2Adata.
ü Membercountriesagreetorequest/encourageUNCTADto
shareandreleasedataonFDIonagriculture.
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Formoreinformationoninvestmentdomains:
visitFAOSTAT:www.faostat3.fao.org
and
FAOStatisticsDivision(ESS)webpage:http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/esseconomic/en/
Formoreinformation,pleasecontact:
SangitaDubey,SeniorStatisticianresponsibleforEconomicStatistics
([email protected])
BrianCarisma,InvestmentStatistician([email protected])
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