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Development Lessons from the Past for the Future Spain is not Uganda and the Past is not the Future … Response to Stuart Corbridge by Prof. Colin Lewis, Economic History, LSE – Panel Respondent Responding to Professor Stuart Corbridge • • • • • Some Historical Data/Indicators Exploring (‘explaining’) the Data Engaging with Professor Corbridge’s Agenda States and Institutional Change Late Development or Late Industrialisation Growth: GDP p/c (U$S 1985) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 USA Jp Ch SA Bz 1700 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Growth: GDP (% an.av.) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 'EU' USA LatAm Japan China India Africa 182070 191350 19732010 Share of World GDP (by country): back to the future? Share of World GDP (by region): ‘convergence’? ‘Explaining’ or Exploring the Data: History, Institutions and Institutional Change • Learning from Development Studies and History • Why are some countries and regions richer/poorer than others? • Can ‘less developed’ countries learn from ‘more developed countries’ …? • Geography, Institutions, Shocks & Luck Engaging with Professor Corbridge’s Agenda History, Institutions and Institutional Change: virtuous circle or vicious cycle? Democratic Order Disorder Disorder Authoritarian Order Authoritarian Order History, Institutions and Institutional Change: virtuous circle or vicious cycle? Examples from Europe & Asia • • • • • “Glorious & Bloodless Revolution” 1688 Property Rights Bank of England Construction of Modern Fiscal State Debt & the Royal Navy & Trade & Industrial Growth Importing a King & Restructuring Institutions from Within Japan is • • • • • • “Black Ships” and the Meiji Restoration 1852-4 & 1868 Bureaucratic centralisation ‘Land reform’ and tenancy rights Societal restructuring Education & innovation War and industrialisation Restoring an Emperor & Importing (some) Institutions not England History, Institutions and Institutional Change: virtuous circle or vicious cycle? Examples from Latin America, c. 1910 • Growth Shock • Societal Diversification/Social protest • Accommodation or Disorder • Mexico (1910) Revolution: intra-elite discord + exogenous protest (peasant protest & urban unrest) • the Argentine (1912): ‘reform from within’ and ‘incorporation within the system’ History, Institutions and Institutional Change? • Shocks: endogenous or exogenous • Shocks as challenges and opportunities: response - virtuous circle or vicious spiral • Institutions are endogenous • Institutions may be imported but cannot be exported Industrialisation as Institutional Change: Industrialisation as Development? • ‘For real and sustained development, there is no substitute for industrialisation’ Patrick O’Brien Industrialisation: critical perspectives on the world economy (1999) vol I, p.xiv • ‘ … a more equal distribution of income raises the probabilility of industrial success for a host of reasons related to class struggle, worker motivation, expected returns to investment in education, and other micro and macro variables.’ Alice Amsden ‘A Theory of Government Intervention in Late Industrialization’ Putterman & Reuschemeyer State and Market in Development (1999) p.73 The EAsian model/nexus Welfare & Institutions: Life Expectancy: ‘convergence’? 80 70 60 DevEcn E Asia S&SEA LatAm SSAf 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950 1985 2020 Welfare & Human Happiness Index: Happiest/Least Happy 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2011 Nor Aus Neth USA NZ Can Ire Ger Swe Gui CAR Sleo BuFaso Development Lessons from the Past for the Future: what is it all about? • • • • Learning what not to do? Learning how and what (‘institutions’) to ‘import’ Observing to ‘catch up’? Growth can reduce poverty, but only development delivers equity OR the market can reduce poverty but only the state delivers equity? • Leaving the last word to Marshall: democracy <> citizenship <> welfare <> capitalism = equality of opportunity and equitable distribution of wealth