Download Sidang Akhbar Prestasi Ekonomi pada Suku Pertama Tahun 2015

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15 May 2015
Sidang Akhbar
Prestasi Ekonomi
pada Suku Pertama Tahun 2015
Gabenor
Bank Negara Malaysia
15 Mei 2015
Sidang akhbar akan meliputi:
• Prestasi ekonomi pada suku pertama tahun 2015
• Perkembangan monetari dan kewangan
1
Moderate global economic expansion in 1Q 2015
Global Growth
Real GDP
(Annual change, %)
2014
1Q
4Q
2015
Year
1Q
Advanced economies
US
1.9
2.4
2.4
3.0a
UK
2.7r
3.0r
2.8r
2.4p
Euro area
1.1
0.9
0.9
1.0p
Asian economies
PR China
7.4
7.3
7.4
7.0
Chinese Taipei
3.4
3.3r
3.7r
3.5a
Indonesia
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.7
Korea
3.9
2.7
3.3
2.4a
Singapore
4.6
2.1r
2.9r
2.1a
p
Preliminary estimate a Advance estimate r Revised
Source: National authorities
2
• Divergence of growth momentum
across major economies
• Sustained economic recovery in
the US and UK
• Subdued growth in the euro area
and Japan
• Growth in Asia continues to be
sustained by the expansion of
domestic demand
The Malaysian economy expanded by 5.6% in
1Q 2015
RM bn (2010 =100)
300
Real GDP growth
6.3
6.5
Annual change (%)
7
5.7 5.6
5.6
250
6
5
Real GDP
4
200
3
2
150
1
0
100
1Q
2011
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2012
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2013
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
3
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2014
2Q
3Q
2Q
1Q
2015
Private sector remains the anchor of growth
Ppt
contribution
Share,
%
(2014)
1Q
4Q
Year
1Q
10
Domestic demand
(excluding stocks)
91.5
7.6
5.7
5.9
7.9
8
Private Sector
68.5
8.9
8.3
7.9
9.6
Consumption
51.8
7.0
7.6
7.0
8.8
Investment
16.6
14.9
11.1
11.0
11.7
Public Sector
23.0
3.6
0.6
0.4
2.5
Consumption
13.6
12.2
2.5
4.4
4.1
Investment
9.5
-6.3
-1.9
-4.7
0.5
Real GDP
(Annual change, %)
Net exports of goods
and services
9.3
2015
2014
8.2
-4.0
12.8
6
2.0
4
4.6
2
0
-1.1
-0.4
-2
7.9
1.9
5.1
-0.6
Imports
Change in stocks
(RM billion)
66.8
7.8
2.6
4.2
1.0
-0.8
-1.6
-2.7
-8.5
-2.5
GDP (y-o-y)
100.0
6.3
5.7
6.0
5.6
-
1.4
1.8
-
1.2
GDP (q-o-q growth,
seasonally adjusted)
5.6%
0.5
-10.2
76.1
Exports
6.3%
GDP growth:
5.7%
6.5%
5.6%
-4
1Q 14
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
4
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
Private investment
Private consumption
Public investment
Public consumption
Net exports
Change in stocks
Private consumption expanded at a stronger pace
of 8.8%
Spending remained supported by
stable employment conditions
Stronger pace of private consumption
Unemployment Rate and Employment
Real Private Consumption Growth
Annual change (%)
Unemployment rate
(% of labour force)
10.0
3.5
Persons
(million)
14.5
Employment (RHS)
9.0
8.8
8.0
14.0
13.7 13.7
3.1 13.5
Unemployment rate
3.0
13.0
7.6
2.8
7.0
6.0
12.5
12.0
2.5
11.5
5.0
11.0
2.0
4.0
10.5
1Q 12
1Q 12 3Q 12 1Q 13 3Q 13 1Q 14 3Q 14 1Q 15
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia; Ministry of Human Resources
5
4Q 12
3Q 13
2Q 14
1Q 15
Private investment advanced by 11.7%
Real Private Investment Growth
Annual change (%)
30
Private investment driven by:
25
•
Capital spending in the exportoriented manufacturing industries
and the services sector
•
On-going multi-year investment
projects
20
15
11.1
11.7
10
5
0
1Q 12
4Q 12
3Q 13
2Q 14
1Q 15
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
8
6
Trade balance remained sizeable and current
account surplus improved
Trade balance remained sizeable
Higher current account surplus in 1Q15
RM bn
183.2 30
RM bn
200
RM bn
40
% of GNI
12
Current account balance (RHS)
Exports
150
175.0
Imports
30
9
20
6
10
3
0
0
25
20
100
21.3
50
Trade balance
(RHS)
15
5
3Q 13
1Q 14
3Q 14
-3
-20
-6
10
0
1Q 13
-10
-30
1Q 15
% yoy
1Q14
4Q14
2014
1Q15
Exports
10.7
0.5
6.4
-2.5
Imports
5.5
4.6
5.3
0.2
-9
3Q 12
1Q 13
3Q 13
Goods
Primary income
CAB % of GNI
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
7
1Q 14
3Q 14
1Q15
Services
Secondary income
Ample reserves to meet external obligations
while external debt affected by valuation effect
Reserves position remained at about fivetimes the level during Asian Financial Crisis
USD bn
Times
12
30 Apr. 2015:
USD105.8 bn 10
Net International Reserves
160
140
120
100
In 1Q 2015, higher external debt in ringgit
terms due to valuation effect
Total external debt
RM768.1 bn, 65.9% of GDP
RM bn
350
900
800
696.6
700
1997:
USD21.7 bn
80
8
602.1
500
747.5
211.8
537.5
600
6
USD bn
768.1
300
205.1
434.3
200
400
60
4
100
200
2
20
150
300
40
50
100
0
250
0
0
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 As at
30
Net International Reserves
Apr
Retained import cover (RHS)
Reserves/ST ext debt (RHS)
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1Q
2015
Offshore borrowing (Previous Definition)
Non-resident holdings of domestic debt securities
Other debt liabilities*
Total External Debt, USD equivalent (RHS)
*Include trade credits, SDR allocation and miscellaneous
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia, Department of Statistics, Malaysia
8
Growth supported by the major economic sectors
Real GDP
(Annual change, %)
2014
2015
1Q
4Q
Year
1Q
Services
53.5
6.7
6.6
6.5
6.4
Manufacturing
23.0
7.0
5.4
6.2
5.6
Mining
9.0
-0.1
9.5
3.3
9.6
Agriculture
9.2
2.6
-3.7
2.1
-4.7
Construction
4.3
19.3
8.8
11.8
9.7
100.01
6.3
5.7
6.0
5.6
GDP
1
Share,
%
(2014)
Numbers do not add up due to rounding and exclusion of import duties component
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
9
• Services: Expansion in all subsectors, particularly in
consumption-related sub-sectors
• Manufacturing: Strong production
in the E&E cluster
• Construction: Supported by nonresidential and residential
subsectors
• Mining: Strong growth amid higher
crude oil production
• Agriculture: Contraction due to
lower palm oil output
Headline inflation was lower at 0.7% in 1Q
•
The decline in inflation was due mainly to the transport category following the downward
revisions to domestic fuel prices
Contribution to Inflation
Annual growth, %
4.0
4Q ‘14
Category
1Q ‘15
Weight
Annual growth, %
3.5
3.0
Headline inflation
100.0
2.8
0.7
Food and nonalcoholic beverages
30.3
2.7
2.5
Housing, water,
electricity, gas and
other fuels
22.6
3.4
2.1
Transport
14.9
4.8
-7.6
Others
32.2
1.5
1.6
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Food & non-alcoholic beverages
Housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels
Transport
Others
-0.5
-1.0
1Q 15
4Q 14
3Q 14
2Q 14
1Q 14
4Q 13
3Q 13
2Q 13
1Q 13
4Q 12
3Q 12
2Q 12
1Q 12
-1.5
Others include alcoholic beverages and tobacco; restaurants & hotels; recreation services & culture; education; health; furnishings, household
equipment & routine household maintenance; communication; clothing and footwear; and miscellaneous goods and services.
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
10
OPR maintained at 3.25% amid steady growth prospects
and contained underlying inflation
%
4.0
Overnight Policy Rate
• The Malaysian economy is expected to
remain on a steady growth path with
domestic demand remaining as the key
driver of growth
3.5
3.25
• Inflation is expected to trend higher in
2015 following the implementation of
GST. Underlying inflation is expected to
remain contained
3.0
2.5
• The stance of monetary policy remains
supportive of economic activity
2.0
• Risks to destabilising financial
imbalances are contained
1.5
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
1.0
11
Ringgit movements driven by both domestic and
external factors
MYR performance against selected currencies
THB
-7.0
INR
-7.0
• Regional currencies continued to face
volatility during the first quarter:
IDR
PHP
-6.1
CNY
-5.9
USD
-6.0
JPY
‒ Concerns on the global economic
outlook
-5.3
KRW
TWD
‒ Uncertainty surrounding global
monetary conditions
-1.0
-4.2
• The ringgit also faced adjustments due to
ongoing concerns on impact of low global
crude oil prices
-6.8
SGD
-2.0
EUR
5.9
AUD
1.2
GBP
-9
-6
-3
0
• The ringgit, however, has appreciated in
April following some recovery and
stabilisation in the global crude oil prices
% change
-1.0
3
1 Apr- 13 May 2015
6
9
1Q
Note: +ve corresponds to ringgit appreciation
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
12
Financing remained supportive of economic activity
Relatively stable total loans growth amidst
continued strong growth in SME loans …
Net Financing1 and Outstanding Banking
System Loans Growth
Gross Financing through the Banking System
and Capital Market
RM billion
350
Loans Disbursed
Gross PDS Issued*
Equity
SME loan
growth: 17.2%
302
300
247
2Q13
250
243
1Q13
16
282
281
2Q14
300
1Q14
Annual
change (%)
20
… with sustained gross financing to the
private sector
310
282
256
12
Total loan
growth: 9.2%
200
8
150
Net financing
growth: 8.3%
4
*Excludes issuances by Cagamas
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
13
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
loans of the banking system and PDS outstanding
4Q13
1Outstanding
3Q13
100
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
Domestic financial stability continued to be
preserved
Banking sector
4Q 14
1Q 15
Common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital
ratio (%)
13.3
12.5
Tier 1 capital ratio (%)
14.0
13.2
Total capital ratio (%)
15.9
15.2
Capital buffer (RM bn)
107
99
Net impaired loans ratio (%)
1.2
1.2
ROE (annualised)
15.2
12.4
Liquidity buffer (<1 mth) (% of deposits)
15.8
16.0
Insurance/Takaful sector
4Q 14
1Q 15
Capital adequacy ratio (%) - Insurance
252.1
246.5
Capital adequacy ratio (%) - Takaful
189.6
187.5
Capital buffer (RM bn)
32.9
33.1
Profit YTD (RM bn)
16.9
6.2
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
14
• Financial intermediation continued
to be supported by:
– Sound financial institutions;
– Orderly conditions in financial
markets; and
– Ample liquidity
• Banks and insurers to remain
resilient under stress scenarios
• Public confidence in the financial
system remained intact
• Banking system liquidity remained
ample
Household debt expansion continued to moderate
RM bn
Household Sector: Debt and financial
2500
Annual
growth
(%) 16
2,070
2000
12
1500
9.2
1000
6.6
•
Household debt grew by 9.2%
•
Aggregate financial assets remained
above 2 times of household debt
•
Risk of delinquency remains low in
near term
– Continued income growth and
favourable employment
conditions
– Prudent debt servicing ratios
(DSR) associated with new
household debt
– Sustained debt servicing
capacity
8
4
500
0
0
Financial liabilities
HH debt growth (RHS)
%
Financial assets
Financial assets growth (RHS)
Banking System: Impaired Loans and Loans-in-arrears (LIA)
Ratios of Households
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.0
0.5
0.0
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
2011
2012
Household: LIA 1-<3 months ratio
2013
2014
2015
Household: Impaired loans
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
15
Sustained debt servicing capacity amid improved
leverage position of businesses
Business sector: Leverage and debt servicing capacity
%
times
10
60
50
41.5% 8
40
•
Quality of banking sector credit
exposure to businesses remained
healthy
– Low impairment and arrears
– Supported by sustained financial
performance and strong financial
buffers of businesses
4
20
2
10
0
0
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2011
2012
Debt-to-equity ratio
Current ratio (RHS)
6.0
Growth in domestic borrowings
(loans, private debt securities and
sukuk) by businesses moderated to
7.4% (Dec 2014: +8.5%)
6
30
%
•
2013
2014
Interest coverage ratio (RHS)
Banking system: Impaired loan and loans-in-arrears
(LIA) ratios of Businesses
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.0
0.3
0.0
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Business: Impaired loans
Business: LIA-1-<3 months ratio
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
16
Looking ahead, the Malaysian economy is
expected to remain on a steady growth path
• The global economy to improve although at a moderate pace
− Pace of recovery of the advanced economies to remain modest and uneven
− While growth in the regional economies is slower, it will continue to remain an important
growth center in the global economy
− Downsides risks remain, with the international financial markets affected by shifts in global
liquidity and investor sentiments.
• Domestic demand to remain as the key driver of growth of Malaysian economy
− Private consumption is expected to be affected by the introduction of GST, but will continue
to be supported by the steady rise in income and employment
− Investment activity to be led by capital spending in export-oriented industries, services
sector and infrastructure projects
− The recovery in global growth, although moderate, will provide support to manufactured
exports
17
Announcement on
Rebase of Malaysia’s GDP
to Base Year 2010
18
Malaysia’s GDP rebased to the 2010 base year
1. GDP rebasing is a planned periodic exercise and is in line with
international best practices
2. Rebasing of Malaysia’s GDP ensures the continued relevance and
improves the quality of GDP estimates
−
Reflects latest structure of the Malaysian economy
−
Adopts international best practices in statistical compilation
−
Incorporates latest comprehensive surveys, censuses and data sources
3. The rebasing exercise has minimal implications on Malaysia’s economic
profile
−
Modest increase in nominal GDP
−
Minimal changes to the structure and underlying drivers of growth in the economy
−
Unchanged GDP growth and underlying momentum
19
Structure of the economy broadly unchanged
Services and manufacturing
remain the largest sectors
%
60.0
Private sector domestic demand
remains the key driver of growth
Share of real GDP (by economic activity) in 2014
55.3
%
60
53.5
Share of real GDP (by expenditure) in 2014
52.5 51.8
2005 base
50.0
2010 base
2005 base
50
40.0
2010 base
40
30.0
24.6
30
23.0
20.0
17.5 16.6
20
6.9
9.2
7.9 9.0
10
9.8 9.5
8.0 9.3
Net exports
10.0
Public
investment
13.2 13.6
3.9 4.3
20
Public
consumption
Private
consumption
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Private
investment
0
Construction
Mining
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Services
0.0
Nominal and real GDP growth relatively unchanged
Underlying growth momentum of the economy remains relatively the same
Nominal GDP growth
Real GDP growth
Yoy, %
Yoy, %
Old base
12.0
New base
Old base
8.0
New base
11.0
11.0
10.0
6.0
8.6
8.4
8.0
5.3
5.2
6.5
6.0
5.6
6.0
5.5
4.7
4.7
4.0
6.4
6.0
4.9
4.8
4.0
2.0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2011
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
21
2012
2013
2014
Questions