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PROCEEDINGS OF THE SECOND ,,INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE . OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMISTS HELD AT CORNELL UNIVERSITY, ITHACA; NEW YORK, AUGUST 18 TO AUGUST 29, 1930 U:l]e <Gollegiatc lgress GEORGE BANTA PUBLISHING COMPANY MENASHA, WISCONSIN 1930 I AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AS APPLIED ECONOMICS A. w. ASHBY wAL ES, 0 UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ABERYSTWYTH, wALES in agricultural economics it has always seemed to me that the philosophy of economic science with which we are provided in the general studies of method in economics, and in general statements of the aims of economic science, is quite inadequate for our purposes. Agricultural economics is an "applied science," that is, it is a methodical pu~suit of knowledge of economic processes and organisation in agriculture and of their results, for the purpose of stabilising, adapting or modifying them; and, if and when necessary, of changing their results. The application of knowledge to an industry does not necessarily mean changing the forms of organisation or structure of the industry or even making any change in its processes. The most complete and reliable information may confirm the ·usefulnesses, desirability, and value of the existing organisation and processes. But this is not often the case, and had there been expectations that this result would arise from the study of agricultural economics probably there would not have been any such study. In all "applied"- sciences there is an underlying assumption that the results of study will lead to desirable change, to development and progress. The study of agricultural economics grew out of a more or less dearly recognised need for knowledge of economic organisation and economic processes in the industry which could be used for intelligent modification of existing forms and conditions. Agricultural economics is not a "pure science," for the study is not pursued, nor is the organisation maintained to pursue it, maintained to produce "knowledge for knowledge's sake." There are necessarily times when agricultural economists must specially claim to be free to pursue knowledge in their sphere without restriction and without thought of its possible effects; and they will of course always claim "freedom of science" to explore their universe and "academic freedom" to proclaim results. Scientists engaged in an "applied science" do not usually apply their knowledge: they usually apply their methods of study to what are apparently weak spots in the industry. They produce their results, and they sometimes indicate how these results affect the consideration of processes or forms of organisation. They may I N MY WORK 308 A. W. ASHBY even go further and indicate the modifications which seem, as the result of their investigations, to be necessary or desirable. Some studies are directed not, apparently, to weak spots in organisation or processes but to these in general. But no one will object to the statement that any weaknesses discovered in such investigations are given greater attention than evidences of strength or of stability. This condition may alter as the science develops and at some points knowledge may lead quite as clearly to preservation or conservation as to change, but this is not to be expected for some time to come. If agricultural economi9 is not an applied science in this sense, then it can only be an industrial branch of "political economy" or "economic science." Studies will be pursued and organisations maintained to procure knowledge and to proclaim it. The result may be "pure knowledge," whatever that may be. But whenever the result is real knowledge we may rest assured that someone will use it either in whole or in part. And we have always to remember that "laws" or "principles" of the "purest" of pure economics have been used, particularly in politics but also in industrial administration. These uses perhaps have been more frequently of a negative or conservative than of a positive or constructive character, but negative uses of ideas, principles, and even knowledge in social life may sometimes be as important as constructive uses. The negative here as everywhere is merely the first step to a positive attitude. Industry is a social activity. Economics is a social science. The pursuit of agriculture is a social activity, and agricultural economics is a part of a social science of economics, which is only one of the social sciences. From these points of view I would examine the position of agricultural economics and in part that of the agricultural economist. If anyone accuses me of being an idealist, or of trying to make a philosophy, I can only say that my record as a fact-finder will show that I have done a fair share of work in that sphere. My dissatisfaction with mere fact-finding drives me to consider its basis. The outstanding fact about any branch of applied economics, and about agricultural economics in particular, is that its results, its knowledge (sometimes more properly perhaps, its "information") will be used for purposes of manipulative or directive acts in the sphere of economics or politics. These acts may be those of individuals, of groups or their leaders, or of administrators or AGRICULTURAL AS APPLIED ECONOMICS 309 statesmen. They may apply to one business, to group interests or collective businesses, or to economic organisation of the state or world-community. There is a theory, or as I would prefer to call it, a suggestion (occasionally treated as a dogma), that agricultural economics is concerned only with natural forces in that part of the economic universe occupied by agriculture and agriculturists. Agricultural economics, it is said, is a naturalistic science, that is, it should pursue its studies with reference only to phenomena or facts; and it has nothing whatever to do with "values" or assessments of phenomena or "facts" J?y human or social standards. There is also a suggestion that agricultural economics as an industrial branch of pure economics is a study in pursuit of pure knowledge, which sometimes means that it is an essay or series of essays in logic. And it matters not that logic may be deductive or inductive: the results are logical and impersonal. This, of course, is not true. Some processes in inductive logic in the social sciences are quite personal, and some in deductive logic are intensely so. Logic does not give mechanical results of mechanical processes. But neither of these represents the true position of agricultural economics as a branch of social science, and I shall not make any apologies for applying some of the principles of other social sciences to agricultural economics. If we deal with economics by the methods of the naturalistic sciences we should arrive at something like natural law, but as a matter of fact we never do. Social life is not a "natural fact." "The form of social life at present under our eye is not the result of inevitable processes, but, in great part at least, the result of definite acts of choice made by particular men and groups of men." In so far as existing society-including the economic organisation of agriculture-is the result of past choice and past acts of will, so the social life of the future may be transformed by new acts of will. Practically speaking, we can apply the conceptions of natural science to the economic systems only when we use the conception of the "economic man." Then we regard the system as a ground arranged for a scramble in which men give . as little and get as much as possible. But we do not now accept this principle of self-interest, at least in its crude form. We know that self-interest is and must be checked by law, by economic conventions, and by morals. 310 ,A. W. ASHBY We do not accept the principle of self-interest in the science of politics and have not accepted it for about 80 years. "Political man" is not concerned with giving the least and getting the most. "Political man" is concerned with the establishment and maintenance of order, the creation and extension of liberty, and the establishment and maintenance of good government. If we apply the political principle to economic organisation, then we view it not as a naturalistic world, but as a cooperative enterprise for maintaining and developing civilised life. (The specific objects sought by "economic man" may be discussed later.) We may then, take as our fundamental principle iq economics the division and specialisation of function because of its importance in production. Our fundamental problem is, then, the coordination of functions to secure the greatest order in the distribution of functions themselves and the greatest order in the distribution and the use of the goods and services produced. Or, accepting the principle that division and specialisation of function will lead to production at least cost or on the most economical lines, then our problem is that of combining the pursuit of least cost with that of the highest possible degree of order and security. It is because no one believes in the naturalistic scheme of economic organisation that every one not merely accepts but gladly sees the political and social organisations interfering to qualify the results of the economic organisation. In the naturalistic system of economics the fact that the economic system does not need a man-although that man still needs food, clothing, and housing (and the health and well-being of society requires that he receive these and live in civilised decency )-means that this man is not a part of the economic system. The unemployed are irrelevant to the naturalistic economic system. Their wants are not relevant to that system because they are not backed by purchasing power. But the naturalistic economists never yet had courage to suggest that the unemployed be shot-as we shoot unnecessary horses-although some of their simpler and more truthful followers in the world of business have privately held views somewhat of this . character. I use this illustration because it is one of which the principles have long received recognition. But should we apply the naturalistic conceptions to agricultural economics we shall soon find ourselves faced with the same sort of dilemma. The farmer who AGRICULTURAL AS APPLIED ECONOMICS 311 loses his economic position because of the advance of technical processes or economic organisation in the industry has just as much right to the support and assistance of society as the urban unemployed. He is a member of society, and society suffers when he suffers beyond a certain degree. Just at the point at which the economic system breaks down the political and social systems take up the task of making civilised life possible. They are able to, and in fact are obliged to, because they are informed by better philosophies of the social life. If our economic system is a natural system, it must be what it is, and what it is it will be. That is not to say it will not change, for if we believe in evolution in the natural world we believe in change in that world. But the seeds of all the change in future natural worlds are here in the present. This is true of the economic world also, but the seeds of change in the economic world are in the minds and hearts of men as well as in the economic phenomena themselves. Man does not change the stars, he only changes his thoughts and develops his knowledge of them. Man does select and breed plants and thus changes the plants that grow. But he cannot put into plants anything that is not already there. He uses directive thought and develops them. In economics, man can at least use as much directive thought as in applied botany, and he may put into the economic system some things which are not now there. When man begins to use directive thought in applied botany or in applied economics he asks not only "What is?" but "What ought to be?" or "What is required?" We are then brought to the fact that in applied economics we are not only concerned with facts, but with values. What ought to be has to be considered equally with what is and with what ir coming. Where we pass from the world of what is to ideas of what ought to be, we no longer deal with a world which is in any sense naturalistic, or with any world by the methods of naturalistic science. 1 The natural sciences deal with a universe that not only 1 Throughout this paper the phrase "what ought to be" is used in the sense of what ought to be from the economic point of view, i.e. from the point of view of economic health in existing society. It has reference to what is now economically possible. in existing society, or what may reasonably be achieved in the near future. There are points at which ethical and political considerations may join with economic considerations in the total social consideration of what ought to be, but the economist is primarily concerned with what ought to be from his own standpoint of the production, distribution, and use of goods and services provided by the economic system. The general tendency of economics is to lay emphasis on 312 A. W. ASHBY is but will be. We deal with a world that is, but a world that will be as man makes it, and as we help him to make it. What I have said contains no implication that there are no "natural facts" in the existing economic system; nor does it imply that I depreciate knowledge or the pursuit of knowledge of those facts. "Facts" in the economic world are mere existences; they are in no sense "inevitables." Laws in the economic world, if any, are mere existences and they are not inevitable. Economic laws are mere general tendencies in the existing scheme of things. Change the existing scheme and the law disappears. And most economic laws require modification from time to time. Any fundamental laws of the economic universe can only arise from the nature of man now applied in that universe-his aptitudes, his capacities, his desires. If we admit that man has aptitudes and abilities which are not now used in economic organisation and desires which are not strongly expressed in it, and we begin to apply new aptitudes and abilities and to express new desires, then the economic system will change. There are many illustrations of such changes. When we have described our facts, when we have discovered their several tendencies, it is not sufficient for us to say "Here is what is," or "That is how it came to be," and "This is what is coming or may be expected." It is for, us to say (from the point of view of economics) what change is desirable, what is the best method by which change may be secured, what degree of change will be possible in a given time by a given method, and possibly what consequential change will follow on any change that is made. Applied botany and applied genetics in animal breeding decide what change is desirable and the methods by which change may be brought about, and in some degree they hope in the future to estimate possible rates of change and to anticipate, at least, some consequential changes. 2 In short, it is not for the economist, much less the agricultural production and distribution with the greater emphasis on production. Agricultural economics, until quite recently, has dealt mainly with production. Any attempt at economic synthesis ought to go far beyond the system of preliminary production. 'The modern chemist, probably, is much more proud of his achievements in synthesis than of chose in analysis. Synthetic chemistry has certainly done immense service to mankind and has brought high recognition to the whole science. It is no less scientific than the analytic chemistry upon which it is founded. And there is no a priori reason why a synthetic economics should be less scientific than the mere analytic. AGRICULTURAL AS APPLIED ECONOMICS 313 economist, i:o regard as sacred a system of thought which he has created for his own convenience. It is certainly not for the economist to regard as sacred an economic organisation constructed during the last century by men less intelligent than himself. When the economists have finished their work on what is; when they have reached their forecasts of what is coming; then their task is to conceive an economic policy, that is, to conceive a deliberate control of production and consumption of wealth for the sake of a clearly conceived life of man in civilised society. Before proceeding further with this discussion perhaps I ought to offer some ideas as to studies in agricultural economics. Economic systems are made largely if not wholly by behaviour systems in men and groups of men, but not, mark, by any one behaviour system which is common to all men at all times. The predominant economic systems have been made by men who have been dominant in economic organisations. If we can change the behaviour systems of the men who dominate economic organisation, we can change the economic system itself. Incidentally, the first thing we attempt when we direct attention to farm management data or marketing data, and try to get knowledge applied, is to try to change the behaviour systems of men, so I presume that no one of the "practical" persons amongst us will say that behaviour systems cannot be changed. We can and do change behaviour systems of men in individual businesses, in groups or in nations. Possibly the economic system has been regarded as a scramble because so many economic relations are the result of mere casual impact. Many of the relations into which farmers enter are really of, the nature of accidental impacts. A man who wants to be a tenant "must get land," but it is often an accident which piece of land he gets. The impact between owner and tenant is not even inevitable for on some occasions tenants may not get land and on some ,occasions owners may not find tenants. A wheat producer must sell wheat, but it is largely a matter of accident to whom he sells it. If we could build up continued relationships, continuous cooperation, we leave behind the idea of scramble and put the idea of organised relationships in its place. In dealing with complexities of social phenomena we have to be careful not to proceed too rapidly to lay out the apparent or the supposed uniformity. There are some cases, as in the so-called 314 A. W. ASHBY· theories of wages, in which we may have to be satisfied with the description of the complexities and where, if we are honest, we shall not try to make logical uniformity where none exists. H. G. Wells (in "The World of William Clissold") speaks of "the scholar's hate of irreducible complexity," and there is no doubt that those of us who have been brought up on logical systems like to see our way through a series of complex phenomena as quickly as possible, and feel baffied and ineffective when we cannot do so. Unless I am mistaken there.are some aspects of existing marketing systems which show irreducible complexities and in regard to which logical reduction may not be possible. It may seem a strange thought, but there are probably case~ in which we shall never find order and uniformity until we have applied standards of what ought to be, and reorganised systems. Everyone believes that the world in which we live possesses a certain kind and measure of regularity. Every action which we voluntarily perform, and every expectation which we entertain, carries the implication of such a belief. This is true of course of the economic world; but it does not follow that there is "uniformity of nature" in the economic world. Here phase follows phase in constant flow, but every phase is unique. Phases in social life are not often if ever repeated. The so-called "repetitions" in social life are never more than vague resemblances. But there is a view that the economic world is nevertheless made up of uniformities, of causal sequences repeated again and again, which collectively embody laws which are general over a given population in a given state of civilisation. If this exists there cannot be more. In economics there is no such thing as that unbroken experience in time and space which is supposed to establish the uniformity of nature and which, it is said, makes inference from experience possible. Yet we sometimes talk as if by processes of inductive logic, by the help of scientific methods, we can map out the whole of economic reality into a scheme of definite causes direct!¥ connected with well-defined effects, which together form sequences whose recurrence in different combinations makes the changing pattern of the economic universe. Within a given space and a given time, or more properly within a society consisting of a group of people living in one area over one period, there are tendencies in certain directions which can be measured, there are experiences from which inferences can be AGRICULTURAL AS APPLIED ECONOMICS 315 drawn, and there are uniformities which make possible some explanations and which give rise to expectations. Our universe is much more complicated than is usually suggested. Here it is very rare that anything happens through the operation of a single cause, or yet through the simple cooperation of many causes each adding its unqualified contribution to the total effect. Causes can never be completely isolated, and their operation is never unqualified. Sequences, so far as we know, are never exactly repeated. There is always the factor of human reactions in the course of economic relations. In economics "things" are never related to "things" except through man. And in the end we have to remember that all our calculations are mere approximations, and that we cannot rely on the repetition of the phenomena in the same relations and in the same quantities. In economics we are dealing with human history, and this has hitherto proved to be inherently incalculable.3 No two human beings, it is said, exactly resemble each other. Certainly, for economic purposes, no two groups of human beings exactly resemble each other, and no two groups (whether separated by space or time or even by mere economic and social barriers) ever live in exactly the same circumstances. When we change the circumstances, we change the human beings, and when we change the human beings we begin to change the circumstances. Unless psychologists and economists can get together and obtain a common measure of these reactions there is no hope of certainty in economic calculations. 3 The present positiOn in economics seems to be that minor occurrences are becoming predictable, while major occurrences come entirely unexpectedly. Could we, for instance, foresee in 1920 the coming popularity and cheapness of artificial silk, and the consequent effect on cotton and wool? Could we forsee about that date, the spread of the combine-harvester and its probable effects on wheat production and on farm organization in some regions? Can we predict the future effects of the combine-harvester from the study of changes following the introduction of the self-binder? Are there any known scientific means by which we can predict changes in the location of production, or changes in consumption? Who predicted the substitution of the horse, and in part of the railway, by the automobile and its associates? All these questions are important even in agricultural economics. Even the prediction of minor occurrences depends on the assumptions of a static world, or of steady and known trends. The use of correlation studies is particularly dependent on these assumptions. And it is probable that in these studies quite insufficient attention is paid to "residual factors," especially when these represent the beginnings of what may be described as catastrophic or at lease as radical changes. Even where the results of quantitative analysis more or less coincide with the expectations from preliminary observation and deductive analysis, and a high degree of correlation between quantities of factors is obtained, we cannot be certain of the future repetition of relations and quantities, especially where the intelligence of man may introduce new factors. 316 A. w. ASHBY While I regard this as true I still say that it is a wise and necessary procedure to press mechanical theories to their limits. It is necessary to search for what can be measured, and for methods of measurement and calculation. Mechanical research along the lines of mechanical theories is essential. The greater the obscurity, the less the certainty, the greater the necessity for methodical analysis and for the closest possible measurements. The analysis will deal with what is, how it came to be, and in some cases with what is coming and what is becoming. (I would distinguish between the last two. By "coming" is implied temporary changes such as trade or "financial" fluctuations, and so forth, which alter conditions but do not necessarily have great effects on existing forms of organisation. By "becoming" is implied tendency towards change in essential forms and in some cases in processes.) 4 Essentially, we attempt to interpret human action and reaction in the processes and forms of economic organisation but within the whole environment of the social life. There is no "system of laws," no set of general principles, nor even of statements of facts, or explanations of facts, which can be complete or exhaustive for any considerable amount of time. Experience accumulates, new facts are observed, new forms display themselves, and all such formulae must be from time to time broken up and moulded afresh. But more than this, processes and forms must be moulded to social needs. As workers in applied economics we cannot accept the idea that economic development be left to chance or to the working out of such rough uniformities as may exist in the economic universe. Our very existence implies that economic occurrences may be planned for and directed, at least to some extent. Either things are left to chance, or are directed. If they are left to chance there is no applied economics. But so far we have not reached one of the most essential facts in the philosophical basis of applied economics-that it not only rests on the expectations of change and the possibility of directing change, but also on the essential validity of the ideal in social life. In all social science we are faced with the queer situation that we have to treat the ideal as reality. To the leader of men in individual businesses, in groups large and small, in economic or in poli' Becoming means to pass from one state to another: to come or grow to be. AGRICULTURAL AS APPLIED ECONOMICS 317 tical groups, the ideal is a magnet drawing on; and to the led amongst men the ideal is a direction-pointer; while to those whose interests would be injured by the establishment of the ideal, it is a bogey whose advance has to be obstructed by every possible means. In passing we may note that one of the characteristic means of attempting to obstruct the establishment of the ide.al is that of going out to meet it, and of establishing a new position in the direction of the ideal itself. One way of reforming economic institutions is that of preaching their replacement by an ideal institution which is entirely different, and thus making those most directly interested in the existing institution reform it in order to kill the bogey. In any case, the men and women who have ideas and ideals, who begin to create new values, or to lay varying emphasis on existing values, represent the growth points in social life. The ideas and the activities of these persons are all-important to the work of the applied economist. It may be that when we have really begun to be masters in our science and in its methods we shall pay more attention to what is coming and particularly to what is becoming (as defined above) than to what is general or to what has been. We are then brought back to the subject of values or what ought to be, to which we have hitherto given so little of methodical thought. The science of politics has conceptions of "the good" or the desirable, one might almost say of the "necessary," which are at least useful-the conceptions of liberty, of social order, of good government; but economics has no such terms and no such conceptions. Ethics, also, not only seeks to explain how systems of morals arose, but it seeks to show what systems of morals are necessary to a stable or a satisfactory social life. The obligation on applied economics to deal with what is necessary to the stable or satisfactory social life is no less than in the case of ethics. It is mere convention and bad tradition which leads us to ignore this obligation. But it is a sign of hope that the obligation is ignored far more in the theory than in the. practice of applied economics, especially agricultural economics. Every one of us who goes out to advise a farmer, or a group of farmers, a cooperative society, a political administrator, has some sort of ideas as to "values" and as to what ought to be. The strange thing is that we are not willing to submit these ideas to the same sort of logical 318 A. w. ASHBY analysis as we apply to facts which are more clearly of an external character. And yet we cannot have an applied science as a branch of social science without this analysis. In applied economics we need conceptions such as that of an adequate industrial security, adequate standard of living, adequate leisure, economical consumption and so forth. These, of course, like "economic laws," would not be absolute or universal, but would be relative to existing society and to its possibilities. And we may start to discover what is economically good or necessary by the same means as we try to discover what is true of existing things. There are, in fact, no other means than the human mind and the implements which it is trained to use. If we leave what ought to be merely to personal and unchecked prejudice or predilection, we can have no applied science but only the haphazard and often conflicting activities of a group of persons. Our standards of what is desirable, "what ought to be," must be made both rational and objective. In so for as we can develop standards of what ought to be or of what is necessary, and in so far as we can get these adopted, just in so far shall we begin to bring true order into the economic system. If we desire truth in the sense of the true principles, the application of which will bring health into economic organs of the body politic, and of the social organism, we may seek it in the accurate description and analysis of existing things but we shall not find it there in its entirety. In farm management economics we are using standards such as yield per acre, or per cow or per hen; standards of acres per man or acres per horse; standards of age-weight in meat animals; or of hours' work per acre on crops. These are "efficiency" standards, but this efficiency has reference to a purpose which can only be that of providing society with all the present means of decent living with the least possible expenditure of economic resources consistent with contin~ous provision of equal or increasing means at a constant or diminishing expenditure of resources. When we look for these standards we do not look for the average or even for the type at the point o~ greatest concentration. We do not look for the norm in the sense of a typical example, but for the norm in the sense of either a model or an authoritative rule. When we relate such efficiency standards to rates of profits we begin to create standards of profits. If a certain yield per cow in milk production, or a number of crop-acres per man in crop production, AGRICULTURAL AS APPLIED ECONOMICS 319 is related to a certain standard of profits, and we make a standard of the yield, or of the crop-acres, we begin to make a standard of the. profits also. This might be sound practice if all incomes arising from the production were determined by the profits, or even if all · were determined by production. As we know that they are not, it is necessary to consider standards in distribution also. By using these norms in the stimulation of industrial efficiency we envisage, possibly create, constant struggle; and possibly constant rise in efficiency and tot·al income. We must then envisage constant adjustment in distribution and unless we set up norms for this also we leave it to chance. It is indeed necessary to ask what is the nature, or the validity, of the standards of profits which are related to standards of efficiency. Do they relate only to comparative rates of profit within one branch of agriculture, to comparative profits in agriculture in general, to comparative profits or earnings in other industries, or to the average earnings of all occupied persons in the country? This question is important, for the farmer's reward is determined in the process of distribution as well as in the process of production of wealth, and the pursuit of efficiency standards may merely tend to enrich other people. In the marketing branch of agricultural economics we have also need of some standards. Many investigations are concerned with what may be called the physical economy of marketing-cutting out superfluous handling or trading, improving methods of handling, grading, storing, and so forth, and in general, cutting down the material cost, or improving the service of marketing organisation. But the practical man does not forget that markets function not only in the distribution of goods (produce) but also in the distribution of wealth. There is an efficiency of marketing organisations as wealth distributors as well as their efficiency as distributors of goods. The whole cooperative movement bears witness to the recognition of this duality. When a cooperative society limits interest on capital per se to 5 per cent or 6 per cent it sets one norm in the marketing system. But, on economic grounds, what should be the earnings of a wholesaler (or a retailer) with a known capital, a known turnover and a known (average or normal) rate of risk? No one knows; yet, by implication, we are all ready to suggest that we know what the minimum rate of profit or earnings of a farmer should be. The general position is that agriculture, as a depressed or sup- 320 A. w. ASHBY pressed industry, needs to make a start on the scientific establishment of norms other than those of industrial efficiency. Many of the modern and rising economic institutions have as their objects the establishment of norms in expectations and conduct which will lead to desirable norms in distribution, consumption, and conditions of life. This is the case with the trade union and the cooperative society, and in some degree with the trust, the cartel, and other forms of trade agreement. It is certainly true of the "trade unionism" involved in the method of collective agreement now being used in determining prices of farm products. So I make a plea for the study of such standards as tend to be established in the distribution of wealth, and for the objective analysis of the economic possibilities of the establishment of other and more satisfactory norms. While we attempt to regulate and direct production towards efficiency we cannot leave distribution to the free play of haphazard forces. It is not improbable that the study of distribution of wealth from this point of view will favorably react on the work relating to production. The ultimate purpose of all analytical studies is the provision of information for a new synthesis; and the synthesis cannot be left entirely to the untrained and unscientific mind.