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Unit II: Fundamentals of Population What is Population Geography? • Demography: The statistics relating to population geography • Population Geography: How people live, how they interact with one another, how they use the land, what pressure on resources exist, and what the future may bring; answers questions of where? And why there? Satellite Monitoring of Artificial Light Make note of the “Developed World” Key Issues in Population Geography What are the Issues? 1. Population growth (esp. in developing world) 2. Food supply 3. Health 4. Status of women 5. Migration Elements of Population Geography Population and space 1. Humanity has always been unevenly distributed over the land 2. Contrasts between crowded cities and empty reaches have intensified during the 20th c. 3. In technologically advanced countries, people tend to cluster in cities and towns Population Distribution & Density 1. Distribution of population describes the locations on Earth's surface where individuals or groups live 2. Dot maps efficiently show distribution of populations World Population Distribution Dot Map Arithmetic Density • Arithmetic Density –divide the area of a country by the total population; a numerical average a) Not accurate because it does not include clustering within a country b)Does not represent empty areas Arithmetic Density Physiological Density • Physiologic density - number of people per unit of agriculturally productive land a) More useful than arithmetic density b) Gives the real situation in terms of cultivable land and the growing pressure on it c) Excludes agriculturally nonproductive land Physiological Density • Reflects the “burden of dependency” the proportion of persons under 15 and over 65 who are economically dependent on working members aged 15 to 64 Physiological Density Physiologic Population Density Luxor, Egypt Egypt’s arable lands are along the Nile River Valley. Moving away from the river a few blocks, the land becomes sandy and wind-sculpted. Global and National Patterns East Asia 1. Contains more than a 1/4 of the world's population 2. China alone has a pop. of nearly 1.6 billion 3. Most people live along coastlines, river basins and lowlands 4. Dominant activity is farming Japan a) Very limited farmlands b) High population density c) Prosperous and well-fed people because of: (1) High technological prowess (2) Industrial capacity (3) Money-producing exports South Asia 1. Ganges River in India has one of the great concentrations of people on Earth 2. Bangladesh a) More than 120 million people in area size of Iowa b) Nearly all people are farmers 3. India a) Growing faster than china (1.5 Billion people) Europe 1. Contains about 700 million people 2. Population distribution as compared to Asia a) Large populations found in countries near coal fields b) Dense populations in mountainous, rugged countries c) More people live in cities d) Rural countryside more open and not as populated North America 1. Not as densely populated as Europe and Asia, more spread out 2. Rural areas less populated 3. Like Europe, population concentrated in major cities Other regions 1. South America and Australia seem to have space remaining for pop. Growth and distribution 2. Pockets of Africa are very dense while other parts are sparsely populated due to physical barriers a) Nile Valley and Delta has more than 66 million inhabitants b) Areas around deserts not as populated Some Generalizations • 90% of the world’s population is above the equator, 66% in the midlatitudes (includes US and Europe) • 50% of the population lives on 5% of the available land. • 66% of the world’s populations live within 300 miles of the ocean. Population World Population Growth Through History Billions 12 11 2100 10 9 Old Stone 7 Age 8 New Stone Age Bronze Age Iron Age 6 Modern Age Middle Ages 2000 Future 5 4 1975 3 1950 2 1 Black Death —The Plague 1900 1800 1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 World Pop. was steady until the agricultural/ scientific revolutions – then it exploded 24 Population Growth--the Problem • Food Supply • Status of Women • Health Issues--not enough nutrients in food, lack of medical help • Environmental Issues-deforestation, erosion, technology/chemicals 25 Global Population Growth Is Driven by Developing Countries. World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision. 26 Sparks to Population Growth • • • • • Agricultural Revolution Industrial Revolution Urbanization and Sanitation Advances in Medicine Conquest and Colonization of New Lands • Developing Countries 27 Checks on Population Growth • Epidemics and Plagues --Bubonic Plague- 1348-1350, 1/4 of the population killed, England loses 4 million people • Famines –Potato Famine in Ireland –India and China • Wars • Natural Decrease 28 Demographic Equations Growth Rate (%) = Birth Rate – Death Rate +/– Migration = Rate of Natural Increase (%) Population Doubling Time (yrs.) = 70 Rate of Natural Increase 29 Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years. This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 7 (Niger, Mali). The U.S. rate is 2. 2.1 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world. In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age. Palestinian Territories Fertility Rate 1975-1980 7.39 1980-1985 7.00 1985-1990 6.43 1990-1995 6.46 1995-2000 5.99 2000-2005 5.57 Total fertility rate U.K. 1975-1980 1.72 1980-1985 1.80 1985-1990 1.81 1990-1995 1.78 1995-2000 1.70 2000-2005 1.66 Africa Fertility Rate 1975-1980 6.60 1980-1985 6.45 1985-1990 6.11 1990-1995 5.67 1995-2000 5.26 2000-2005 4.97 Infant Mortality Rate – the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births. The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore, Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone, Afghanistan). The U.S. rate is just over 6. High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children. G. Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide China, Macao Special Administrative Region China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Ukraine Czech Republic Slovakia 0.84 0.94 1.12 1.17 1.20 Slovenia 1.22 Republic of Korea 1.23 Republic of Moldova 1.23 Bulgaria 1.24 Belarus 1.24 Lowest Total Fertility rates tend to cluster in Eastern Europe and also include China H. Diverging Trends in Average number of children per woman Fertility Reduction 6.4 6.4 5.7 5.4 8.5 6.2 5.3 5.2 4.3 3.3 3.1 2.4 Egypt India 2.5 2.1 Indonesia Iran 1970-1975 Pakistan Turkey 2000-2005 Many developing countries have cut population growth Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. Yemen I. Trends in Life Expectancy, Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years by Region 82 80 77 76 72 65 67 75 65 49 Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean 2000-2005 More Developed Regions 2045-2050 L.E increase vary with region – greatest gains in the developing nations World Arithmetic Density – the total number of people per a unit of land area. U.S. = 76/mi2; NYC=1,000,000/mi2; Australia = 7/mi2 Physiological Density – the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land. World and Country Population Totals Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's surface! Total: 7 billion on planet as of Oct. 20, 2011 Five most populous regions and countries REGION • • • • • POPULATION COUNTRY East Asia 1.9 billion South Asia1.7 billion Europe 825 million SE Asia 600million Brazil 246million China India U.S. Indonesia POPULATION 1.548 billion 1.349 billion 330 million 310 million D. Projected Population Change, Percent Population Change, 2005-2050 by Country Greatest increases are slated for Africa and the Arab world, while Europe and China remain stagnant G. Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide China, Macao Special Administrative Region China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Ukraine Czech Republic Slovakia 0.84 0.94 1.12 1.17 1.20 Slovenia 1.22 Republic of Korea 1.23 Republic of Moldova 1.23 Bulgaria 1.24 Belarus 1.24 Lowest Total Fertility rates tend to cluster in Eastern Europe and also include China Birth Control Programs • One family/one child policies – Female infanticide – Social compensation fees • • • • • Sterilization Loss of status Termination healthcare/food coupons Free birth control Increased literacy K. Age Distribution of the Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 World’s Population Millions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions Age Male 300 200 100 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 Female 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 0 100 200 300 20-24 15-19 10-14 300 5-9 0-4 Male 100 Female 100 300 Pyramids for the LDCs and HDCs are vastly different World Death Rates • Infectious diseases – HIV/AIDS – SARS • Degenerative diseases – Obesity – Tobacco use • Epidemiology • Epidemiological transition Adults and Children Living with AIDS, 2004 Rates of Natural Increase Doubling Time = 70 / Rate of Increase Rate of Increase (%) Doubling Time (yrs.) Example (1998) 0.50 0.60 140 120 Ireland United States 1.00 70 China 2.00 3.50 35 20 Costa Rica Yemen Higher rate of increase = shorter doubling time (inverse relationship) 50 2000 yrs. ago – 250 million: doubling time 16 centuries (1650) 1650 – 500 million: doubling time 170 yrs. (1820) … 2000 – doubling time reduced to 35 yrs. (>6 billion currently) 51 Doubling Times The doubling time is the number of years before a population will be twice as large as it is today. World = 50 U.S. = 34 MDC = 543 LDC = 40 Honduras = 22 Belize = 19 Denmark = 700 Russia = never? Demographic Transition Model The Demographic Transition Model 59 60 1. Stage One Growth • Pre-Industrial economy – Crude death rate and birth rate fluctuate freely due mainly to famine, but also war and disease 61 2. Stage Two Growth • Early Industrial Economy Industrialization leads death rates down w/better food access due to agricultural advances, while birth rate level off at a stable rate 62 3. Stage Three Growth • Developed Industrial Economy - Birth rates plummet along with death rates as overall population climbs. • Most people survive to old age so no need to replace with babies 63 4. Stage Four Growth • Developed Economies - The postindustrial economy sees birth and death rates converging as population growth levels off and stabilizes. • Nations reach replacement fertility – 2.1 children per couple 64 Demographic Transition Theory 4 Stages: 1. High Birth Rate, High Death Rate 2. High Birth Rate, Declining Death Rate 3. Declining Birth Rate, Low Death Rate 4. Low Birth Rate, Low Death Rate 65 Demographic Transition Model • Stage one (preindustrial/pre-agricultural) – Crude birth/death rate high – Fragile, but stable, population • Stage two (improved agriculture and medicine) – Lower death rates – Infant mortality rate falls – Natural increase very high • Stage three (attitudes change) – Indicative of richer developed countries – Higher standards of living/education – Crude birth rate finally falls • Stage four – Crude birth/death rates low – Population stable – Populations aging Problems with the Demographic Transition Model • based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization • many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth • on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3 opulation Shift Overpopulation • When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources. Jean Antoine Condorcet (1743 – 1794) • predicted that innovation, resulting increased wealth, and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family • believed that society was perfectable Thomas Malthus • Food Production increases linearly while population increases geometrically— i.e. the world will not have enough food to support itself 71 Malthus cont… • But wait! Technology Intervenes • Is Malthus wrong for the future? – A problem we will never escape--population will outdo technology 72 Thomas Malthus on Population An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798 Malthus, responding to Condorcet, predicted population would outrun food supply, leading to a decrease in food per person. 300 250 200 Population 150 Food 100 50 Assumptions • Populations grow exponentially. • Food supply grows arithmetically. • Food shortages and chaos inevitable. 0 1 2 3 Food 2 4 8 16 4 Population 2 4 16 256 Population J-Curve Population and the Environment I=PxAxT Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology Population-influenced environmental problems: • Global Warming • Habitat Loss / Endangered Species • Resource Depletion • Food Shortages? Not globally, but regionally. pulation and Resource nsumption Population Policy: Making National Decisions The Population Bomb! 79 What is Population a policy? • The decisions made by a national gov. to alter growth rates through legal and social means 80 Tools for Population goals • Education & Propaganda 81 China’s Propaganda Posters Carry out family planning Implement the basic national policy Do a good job in family planning to promote economic development 82 Financial incentives • Parents can be rewarded or punished through taxes, tuition or housing as in China’s One Child Policy • Many countries are trying this some to boost their populations, others to decrease it. 83 Women’s Approach • By empowering LDC women to financial success, cycles of large families can sometimes be broken. • A common U.N strategy in Africa 84 Family Planning • Through Public Health Services, counseling, contraception and even abortion can be made available. • These programs have a mixed record based on cultural values 85 Foreign Aid • Financial and technical aid are often made available by the U.N or MDCs. • Problems arise when money or the programs themselves are discontinued 86 Coercion • Enforced sterilization or abortion are rarely successful and often have the opposite effect. • India’s enforced sterilization in the 1970s was a disaster 87