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Early Season Crop Prospect Assessment Using Satellite Data Based Rainfall Estimates Jai Singh Parihar Dy. Director Earth, Ocean, Atmosphere, Planetary Sciences and Applications Area Space Applications Area, ISRO Ahmedabad 380015 INDIA [email protected] 3rd Crop and Rangeland Monitoring Workshop, September 26-30, 2011, RCMRD, Nairobi, Kenya Outline of Presentation • • • • • Introduction Rainfall Estimation from Satellite Data Rainfall Based Crop Prospect Assessment Results and Validation Research Opportunity to African Researchers Global Irrigated Area Typical Annual Precipitation over Africa and Indian Subcontinents Indian Monsoon, Irrigation and Physiography Mean annual rainfall (cm) Rainy days ( >= 2.5mm/day) Monsoon onset normal dates Physiography Height in m < 250 251 - 500 501 - 750 751 - 1,000 > 1,001 Monsoon withdrawal normal dates Command Area Kharif Rice and Coarse Cereals Growing Regions in India Rice Growing Region Coarse Cereals Growing Region Forecasting Agricultural output using Space, Agrometeorology and Land based observations (FASAL) Land Observations Cropped area Crop condition Crop area & Production Crop acreage Crop area & Production Crop yield MULTIPLE IN-SEASON FORECAST PreSeason EarlySeason MidSeason State PreHarvest State PreHarvest District Revised Assessing Damage Rainfall Estimation from Satellite Data Precipitation Using - INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) • Cloud classification using IR and WV channel observations of INSAT and Kalpana. • Creation of a large gridded data base of IR TB’s from INSAT and Polar orbiting Microwave Satellite rainfall from TRMM –Precipitation Radar • Applying Environment Correction factor using forecast model outputs of Precipitable water and humidity. • Validation of rainfall using Ground based DWR and rain gauge analysis and fine-tuning of algorithm. • Sensitivity studies to derive QPE over various possible spatial and temporal scales. • Generation of rainfall products on daily, pentad, monthly and seasonal scales. data, error Flow Chart for IMSRA Algorithm INSAT TIR, WV Data 3 Hourly Image Conversion from Grey Count to TBs Look Up Table for Calibration Grid Average of IR TBs (0.250x0.250) Satellite Microwave Rainfall (TRMM/SSMI) IR and WV - Cloud Classification Collocation of IR TBs and MW Rainfall Grid Avg. Rainfall (0.250x0.250) Estimation of Rainfall Model PW & RH Forecast PW & RH Correction Rainfall Validation/ Fine Tuning (DWR/SFRG) Corrected Rainfall Estimation Final Rain Rate, Daily, Pentad, Monthly & Seasonal Rainfall Fortnightly Rainfall, June 1-August 24, 2011 Cumulative Total Rainfall, June 1-August 24, 2011 Cumulative Total Rainfall June 1 –August 31 Validation of Satellite Data Derived Rainfall Satellite Data IMD Data Rainfall Based Soil Moisture and Crop Prospect Assessment Soil Moisture Availability Modeling Schema Soil Moisture based Assessment of Crop Situation (SMACS) Available Soil Moisture (ASM) in % July 01 – 15, 2008 July 01 – 15, 2009 Colour Codes: Red to Yellow (ASM < 50 ): Not suitable for sowing of Crops. Requires irrigation for sowing. Green to Blue: Coarse Cereals. Suitable for Deep Blue: Suitable for Rice. July 01 – 15, 2010 July 01 – 15, 2011 Note: Suitability does not imply crops have been sown it depends on various other factors. Not suitable does not imply that no crops are sown as irrigation of the fields is possible. Weekly Assessment of Progress in Kharif Rice Acreage August 20, 2011 August 25, 2011 August 31, 2011 Rainfed rice Area Sown = 30.51 M ha Relative Deviations -7.3 % (w.r.t. 2010) +6.3 % (2009 - poor rainfall year) Normal and Deficit Monsoon years Comparison Validation With In-season Crop Area Estimates Conclusion • Satellite Data Derived Rainfall Provided Good Information on Spatial Distribution. • Soil Moisture based Assessment of Crop Situation (SMACS Model) found to be in effective in Forecasting the Crop Prospect Early in the Season. • Integration of Water Release in Canal Commands would Increase the Effectiveness of Model in Irrigated Areas. • Validation with Mid-Season Estimation of Cropped Area has Confirmed Good Performance of Model. Opportunity to AFRICAN Researchers Initiated in the year 2010 C V Raman International Fellowship for African Researchers for Research in India Opportunity to African Researchers to Conduct Collaborative Research / Training for 1 to 12 Months Duration at Universities and Research Institutions in India Features • Supporting up to one year of research work in India in the area of science and technology • Monthly sustenance allowance • Additional contingency grant • To and fro airfare by economy class • Total of 8 fellowships per country Types of Fellowships • Post Doctoral Fellowship: Duration 6 months. Maximum of 2 fellowships for each or one fellowship thereof subject to 12 man-months. • Visiting Fellowship: Duration 3 months. Maximum 3 fellowships. • Senior Fellowship: Duration 1 month. Maximum 3 fellowships. For information see: www.ficci.com MT-Products Validation using Data over African Sites Megha-Tropiques is a joint ISRO-CNES programme to study the tropical atmosphere including the convective cloud systems known to strongly influence weather and climate. Payloads on Megha-Tropiques • • • • Microwave imager, MADRAS, aimed at measurements for precipitation, cloud liquid water content, ocean surface winds and total water vapour. Humidity sounder, SAPHIR. ScaRAB radiometer for top of the atmosphere radiation budget measurements. Integrated GPS Radio Occultation (GPS-RO) Receiver. Africa has a different vertical temperature, humidity and wind structure compared to Indian region. It is important to understand how the retrieved products are sensitive to the local vertical profiles. African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) and some more sites. For Details Contact: [email protected] Acknowledgements: CRAM Organizers and GEO Secretariat Presentation Material: Dr Manab Chakraborty Dr Sushma Panigrahy Dr P.K. Pal THANK YOU