Download Rate Limiting

Network SoC 산업
- “미래의 정보사회: 산업, 기술과 인력” -
2003.10.18
임 준서
Paion
1
Agenda
I. Demands
시장에 대한 이해의 필요성
Eco-System 의 중요성 – 연못
II. Network SoC 의 기술적 이슈, 경쟁 및 마켓 상황
NP 및 SF 요소기술 소개
경쟁관계 – 별자리도
Map – 역학관계의 파악, 전략적인 방향 결정
2/70
Agenda
III. 변화와 대안
Telco Crash
생태계(Eco-System) 의 변화
변화에 역동적으로 대응하는 실리콘 밸리
기업들 ; 예) PMC-Sierra, Vitesse, AMCC
자금시장 변화
Network 기술 시장 대안
Network SOC 의 Re-positioning
3/70
Agenda
IV. SoC 산업의 성공적인 미래
Global Trend
중국 시장의 부상
Eco-System 측면에서 시스템 산업, Foundry
제품화 Mind의 기술 개발 - Product Planning
Trend 읽기 – 문화
기술 마케팅 – TCP, 시장과 성당
교육적인 측면에서
4/70
Demand
시장에 대한 이해의 필요
통신 사업자의 서비스 변화에 따른 장비 및 부품 수요
Eco-System 의 중요성
5
Core Router : Hype ?
Cisco
GSR12416
Juniper
M160
Charlotte
Aranea-1
Lucent
Nx64000
Avici
TSR
Pluris
Teraplex
$215M
2002 가을
Aggregated
Switching
Bandwidth
320~640G
160Gbps+
320G~1.9T
320G~6.4T 400G ~ 36T 320G~19.2T
인터넷 트래픽의 증가, 3달에2배씩 [ 미국 상무성]
WorldCom
2001년까지, 대형 Terabit 라우터, 대용량 고속 스위치 패브릭,
네트워크 프로세서 개발에 막대한 투자
6/70
Investment : Bubble ?
이더넷 신기술 워크샵 2001-5-24
7/70
Big Picture
Telco
Market
Terabit
Core
Router
MPLS
Router
Metro Core
Last Mile
Access
802.11 AP
Metro Edge
Enterprise
Metro Ethernet
(L3 switch)
PDSN
EPON
(OLT)
LAN SW
Storage Networking –
SAN Fabric, TOE
PSTN
BSC
Ethernet
IP-DSLAM
VDSL
Security –
VPN, IDS, Firewall
EPON
(ONU)
VDSL
Base stations
CDN/ Server
Load balancing
Enterprise
Switch
8/70
KT 의 메트로 및 가입자 스위치
2.5 G
2.5 G
백본
라우터
Cisco GSR12000
G/E
메트로 코어
대용량 스위치
메트로 코어
중용량 스위치
>36Gbps, 20G+128F 포트
• Riverstone 38000
G/E
1G
Ntopia
스위치
GES
엔터프라이즈
스위치
>120Gbps, 48G 포트
• Extreme Black Diamond 8808
1G
VOD server
엑세스
스위치
1G
1G
DSLAM
FE
>16Gbps, 4G+70F 포트
• Cisco Catalyst 6506,
• Riverstone 8600,
• Extreme Alpine 3808
>8Gbps, 2G+32F 포트
• 로커스, 미리넷
• 다산, 코어세스, 텔리언
FE
[KT 메트로 이더넷 망 구성도]
9/70
Broadband Access
Carrier overcapacity than demand, i.e., carriers are in no
condition to purchase any equipment.
전반적으로 침체되었던 네트워크 장비 산업은 2002 년
후반기 VDSL, Metro Ethernet 으로 회복되면서,
2002년도 평균 42% 성장함.
KT 등 통신 사업자 주도의 VDSL (Ntopia-V) 및 Metro
Ethernet (Ntopia-E) 사업 그리고, Netspot 사업은
Broadband 분야에서 아시아 및 한국의 성공적인
시장을 창출하였음.
주요 칩셋 벤더의 주된 타깃 시장이 아시아로 이동함.
2003년의 화두는 여전히 VDSL 고도화 였고, 향후
중국이 최대 시장으로 부상할 것임
국내 중대형 스위치 시스템은 전량 해외 수입 상황임.
10/70
EPON – 100Mbps+ Broadband
서비스 , 시스템, 부품 분야에서 한국이 주도할 수 있는 단계임
20km
MTU/MDU
EPON-OLT
ONU
Core
VDSL,
Ethernet,
FTTH
Splitter
16:1~32:1
Metro Ethernet
ONT
Home
Network
Optical First Mile
•Minimum fiber/space in CO
•No power supply in field
•Downstream broadcast (video)
DSLAM
•100Mbps ~1Gbps Broadband service,
cf. VDSL 13~25Mbps, 50Mbps
11/70
네트워크 SoC
- 통신 서비스 인프라의 핵심 부품
Backbone & Metro – Telco Market


Core/Terabit Router - Network Processor, Switch Fabric
Metro Ethernet Switch - Network Processor, Switch Fabric
Last Mile Access Market

EPON (FTTH) OLT/ONU, VDSL - Ethernet Switch Processor
Home Networking

NAT, Home Gateway, Wireless Switch - Low end Network
Processor
Enterprise Market


Enterprise Switch - Network Processor, Switch Fabric
Security VPN, L7 Content switch - Network Processor
12/70
네트워크 SOC 기술의
State-of-the-art
Network Processor
Co-Processor (Classifier, Lookup, Security, Storage)
Switch Fabric
Ethernet Switch Processor
13
Network Processor Value Positioning
Network Processor ?



A programmable device optimized for packet processing
Header parsing, pattern matching, bit-field manipulation, table lookups, packet modification, traffic management
Must be done at wire speed, Handle Layer 3-7 tasks
Reduced design cycle for NEV



Adaptability to changing standards and protocols being developed–
IPv6, SIP, IPSec, MPLS, DiffServ …
Faster implementation of Incremental features
Performance “headroom” for future upgrades : 50% in usual
Total Cost Of Ownership
14/70
Forwarding and QoS functions
Ingress
Egress
Queue
scheduling
Per Interface
Input
Classification
Ports
Rate
Limiting
Policing/Marking
DSCP written
L2/L3/L4 filter Drop
IP
Lookup
Switch Fabric
Scheduler
WRED VOQ DRR, WFQ
Output
Ports
• Usage based Billing Service
• Wire-Speed Packet Classification for per-flow rate Limiting
• DSCP (Differentiated Service Code Point) written at ingress
• Classified and potentially discarded by WRED (Congestion avoidance)
• Assigned to the appropriate outgoing queue
• Output Scheduling for transmission (priority queuing)
15/70
Network Processing Platform
Control Plane (Protocol
Processing & Management )
CPU
Data Plane Processing
PCI, HT, RapidIO, PCI-Ex
Network
Processor
MAC/PHY
Gigabit
Ethernet/
IEEE802.3ah/
IEEE802.11/
VDSL
Packet
Classifier
Security
Engine
Packet
Processor
(Lookup &
Forwarding)
Switch
Fabric
Traffic
Manager
(QoS,
Scheduling)
NPF LA-1
Search
Engine - CAM
High-Speed
Interface
Lookup
Memory
CSIX, SPI3,
SPI4.2, NPF SI
16/70
Function Map
•Wire Speed Layer 4~7
Content Inspection
•Load Balancing
•Per-Flow Classification
•Routing (BGP, OSPF)
•MPLS Routing
•Management (SNMP, RMON, MIB)
CPU
Network
Processor
Gigabit
Ethernet
EPON
IEEE802.3ah
Packet
Classifier
Wireless
IEEE802.11
Security
Engine
Packet
Processor
(Lookup &
Forwarding)
High-Speed
Interface
Switch
Fabric
Traffic
Manager
(QoS,
Scheduling)
VDSL
MAC/Framer,
•VPN - IPsec
PHY
•SSL acceleration
•TCP termination
•Security Filtering
•Security Rule
•IP Lookup Search
•IPv6 Lookup
Engine - CAM
•Layer3+ Forwarding
•NAT
•MPLS
•Field Manipulation
Lookup
•Congestion
Avoidance
MemoryScheduling
•Priority
•Bandwidth Policing
•Service Level Agreement
•Billing, Rate Limiting
•High speed switching
•Non Blocking - VOQ
•Reliability/Redundancy
•Bandwidth Scalability :
80G,320G,640G
17/70
Network Processor Issues
Processing Bandwidth





1G (1.488Mpps)  OC-48 (7Mpps)  OC-192 (32Mpps)  40G (120+ Mpps)
Deep packet classification, 1M LUT
Multi-Processors : 100%+ compute headroom
More powerful engines – VLIW, SMP, Dynamic multithreading
Extensive use of hard-wired co-processor, classification, etc
Memory Bandwidth

Layer 3 10G requires 5GBps + sustained, 6~10 GBps peak




4 * Rambus = 6.4 GBps peak
256 bit DDR-266 = 8.5 GBps peak
300MHz DDR = 9.4GBps peak
Layer 7 10G


Need 20GBps sustained memory BW just for packet queuing
Combination of embedded DRAM (bandwidth) and external memory(capacity)
Line/Fabric Interface



Need higher bandwidth & low pin counts
CSIX-L1 scales poorly to 10G - Too many pins
SPI4.2 standard for 10G line side
18/70
[참고] Processing Engine – Old Data
Core
Forwarding
rate
Clock
Process
Power
Intel IXP
6 packet
engine(StrongArm)
3.3Mpps
232MHz
0.28um
4.3W
AMCC 7120
2 packet engine
(nPcore RISC)
3Mpps
220MHz
0.18um
4W
IBM Rainier
16 pico engine (32b
RISC)
16.6Mpps
133MHz
0.18um
12W
Cport C-5
16 channel processor
(MIPS-1)
16.7Mpps
200MHz
0.18um
15W
Agere
6 VLIW+2FPP
L3 OC-48
133MHz
0.18um
2*12W
AMCC 7120
7120 core
220MHz
0.18um
NA
EZchip NP1
64 packet engine
200MHz
0.13um
L7 OC-192
19/70
[참고] Bandwidth – Old Data
Line BW
Fabric BW
Memory BW
Next Step
Intel IXP
2.6~3.3Gbps
IX
2.6~3.3Gbps
800MBps (64bit SDRAM 256M) Move to standard interface
400MBps (32bit 18M SRAM-100) SPI4/CSIX instead of IX
AMCC7120
5Gbps
ViX 5Gbps
440MBps (32bit SRAM lookup)
IBM Rainier
8Gbps
DASL
2x7.5Gbps
1.6GBps (256M DDR )
800MBps(SRAM)
UniLink
C-port C-5
5Gbps
CSIX
6.4Gbps
2GBps (64bit 128M SDRAM),
1.1GBps(16M SRAM-133MHz)
Follow standard interface
Agere
5Gbps
Utopia 5Gbps
2.2GBps (64bit SDRAM),
1.06GBps(SRAM)
Standard fabric interface
SPI4/CSIX
AMCC7250
5Gbps
ViX 5Gbps
2~4GBps
ViX to SPI4 conversion
chip, Next integration
EZchip NP1
20Gbps
CSIX
25Gbps+
>60GBps (5MB on-chip DRAM)
CSIX and SPI4.2
20/70
[참고] Interface
Utopia (ATM Interface)





Level 1 : 8bit, 25MHz  OC-3(155Mbps)
Level 2 : 16bit, 50MHz  OC-12(640Mbps)
Level 3 : 32bit, 104MHz  OC-48(3.2Gbps)  OIF SPI-3
SPI-4.1 : 64bit, 200MHz  OC-192(10Gbps)
SPI-4.2 : 16bit, 622MHz  OC-192(10Gbps), LVDS 311MHz DDR
CSIX L1

CFrame : 32xn bit(n=1,2,3,4) with 100/200/250MHz  up to 32Gbps





LVCMOS(166MHz), LHSTL(250MHz), Trace Length : 6~8 inch
Header(2B) – Header Ext(4B) – Payload(256B) – Parity(2B)



32bit @100MHz  32Gbps, OC-48
64bit @200MHz  12.8Gbps, OC-192
128bit @100MHz  12.8Gbps, OC-192
Class (8bit  256 Class) , Destination (12 bit  4096 CSIX port)
Xon/Xoff port-level flow control, In-band control CFrame
Too many implementation option, Not optimized for 10G
NPF SI :



Logical protocol scalable from 10Gbps to 40 Gbps
16 bit LVDS datapath 622MHz
NP-NP : 256 ~1M port, 256 class, NP-Fabric : 64K port, 256 class
21/70
tCAM Lookup Processing
Search entries that match key(comparand)





CAM returns address of the matching location
Most designs optimized for 72 bit search, 72-bit
comparand bus
Often runs at 2xcore clock or in DDR mode
144bit key Write operation in single memory cycle for fivetuple lookup
576bit search for IPv6
Performance
2Mb
66~100 Msps
$70
4.5Mb
100 Msps
$150
0.18um
0.15um
9Mb
133 Msps
$300
0.13um
22/70
Flow Classification for QoS
Classification
(classify flows)
Rate Limiting
(Per-flow RL)
Scheduling
(Priority)
Control packets
Voice flows
HTTP flows
FTP flows
23/70
Per-Flow Rate Limiting
Flow


A sequence of packets with one common characteristics
based on any field at certain layer for some period of time
Associate IP packets to flows, provide guarantees for specific flows
Rate Limiting



Bandwidth allocation for each Customer/Application/Flow
If current rate is within agreed controlled(in-profile), admit
Otherwise (out-of-profile) discard or downgrade packet
Bandwidth Provisioning granularity
Packet Classification



Identifies the flow to the which an arriving packet belongs.
Identification may require complex operations
Stores this information internally once, then other blocks of NP
operation for each packet using flow ID
24/70
NPU Industry
System vendors want Complete Solutions


NPU, search engine, MAC, PHY, fabric
 Reduces TCO, project overhead, and design time
 Easier for new OEMs to enter market
 Fast market creation using off-the-shelf NPUs
Successful vendors must offer all parts – driven continued M&A
Big CPU vendors jumped in

Intel, IBM, Motorola
PHY vendors moving upstream


AMCC, Vitesse, Agere
Software is a new challenge
Related players acquired

SwitchOn, Orologic, Maker, NetBoost, SoftCom, Trillium, QED, SiByte
Startup continue to emerge

EZchip, ClearWater, Cognigine, Bay Micro, Internet Machine, …
25/70
Competition Map [NP1]
AMCC (Market 40%)
3rd Generation
nP7250
OC-48
Sample
June2001
nP3400
2G+24F
nP7120
2xGE
2000
nP3404
4xGE
May 2001
Integrated Switch
2000
NP Pioneer
AMCC7250
Same 7120 core
220MHz, 0.18um
2 SPI3 (2GMII or OC48c) Duplex
10Gbps TM (5700) on Line card
ViX 5Gbps (no CSIX)
2~4Gbps (Memory BW)
$300
AMCC 7120
4th Generation
nP7510
10G
2002.May
nP7570
10G
2003
nP7270
OC-48
0.13um
2 packet engine(nPcore RISC)
Q2 2002
220MHz, 0.18um
nP3450
3Mpps, 5Gbps (line rate)
2G+24F
ViX 5Gbps (Fabric interface)
Sample
440MBps (32bit SRAM lookup)
Strong Compiler, Design Win Winner 3Q03
AMCC nP7510
•0.13um Full-Customized nPcore
•10G (Simplex) Sample 4Q01
•Six engine @ 330MHz
•ViX/SPI4 conversion chip
•More Headroom
•Ingress/Egress 2K Flow each
AMCC nP7570
nP3454
4xGE
•SPI4.2 Duplex version
•Biggest Competitor IXP2800
Sample
3Q03
INTEL ( 11%)
IXP1200
•StrongArm, 3Mpps@200MHz
•IXBUS (External MAC)
•3rd software – Teja, IPinfusion,LynuxWorks
•SDKv2.0 May/2001 (free)
•C compiler $2000/site
•Aggressive design win Push
IXP2400
IXP2800
•Simplex OC-48
•10G (Simplex)
•7Mpps @600MHz
•30Mpps with 16 packet engine(1.4GHz)
•CSIXL1 over SPI3
•700MHz Xscale at 0.13um
IXP2850
•2800 + Security
•0.18um, Xscale based •CSIX over SPI4.2
•$200~300, Sep. 2002
•>$400, Apr. 2003
26/70
Competition Map [NP2]
IBM (19%)
NP4GS3
Agere ( 9%)
•4 GMII with CSIX/UDASL
•0.13um
•4GbE MAC
•PowerPC 405 + 16 packet engine •Dropped
•8 Gbps line, 2x7.5Gbps fabric (DASL)
•Difficult to program - No compiler,
support customer base
•Limited performance and poor
scalability
•0.18um, $400
•2001/Q1 Production
NP4GS3(Rainier)
APP550
Payload
NP4GX
APP550
PayloadPlus
•5Gbps, 3chip Solution ($585)
•High-end ATM applications
•On-chip SAR (OC-48 speed)
•Scale well OC-192
•TSMC 0.18um Full custom,
Late/2001
APP750
APP750
•Duplex(OC-48, 4GbE) •Simplex (10Gbps)
•TSMC 0.13um
•SPI4.2
•266MHz
•Connection to PI40
•$550, 2Q03 Volume
•Agere 0.16um
•Traffic Manager $550
•Sample 2003
APP520
•NP+TM (860+$700)
•Duplex (2GbE, OC-48)
•$195, Apr. 2003
Motorola (15%)
C-5
•4 GbE, OC-48
•32bit Utopia, CSIX
•MIPS-based compiler
•233MHz 0.18um
•Production 2001, $400~500
C-5e
C-3e
4 GbE, OC-48
1 GbE or 8 FE
•32bit CSIX
•16bit Utopia
•266MHz 0.15um
•180MHz 0.15um
•Production 2002, $450
•Production 2002, $200
•Traffic Manager Q-5 ($575) •Traffic Manager Q-3 ($235)
C-10
10 Gbps (Simplex)
•600MHz 0.13um Custom design
•SPI4.2
•Sample 2H03 with Q-10
27/70
NPU Industry Update
NPU Market Forecasting


NPU Market $1.5B @2005 [Cahners In-Stat, 2002]
NPU Market $728M @2005 [Gartner Dataquest, 2002]
NPU Market 2002



$65 million (total Revenue) - A far cry from the hundreds of million dollars
that IC maker till believe is possible
600 design wins @2001 leads to $65 million @2002
Market is questionable with annual $50 million spending
NPU Player







AMCC market leader : 38 %
Intel : 200 design wins
Motorola : 15%
IBM : 19%, High-end, but pulled out
Agere : Late player in IP, but actively
Vitesse : pulled out from long-haul business
Many startup ceased operation, even Big player pulled out
Key Issues


What is sweet-spot application? Storage, Security, L7 for IDC
Who will be remained? Alternative? 10G NPU, Access, Wireless
28/70
Constellation
40G NPU
10G+ NPU
Co-processor
Acorn
Solidum
Silicon
Access
EZchip
NP-1
Fast-Chip
Intel
IXP2800
SwitchOn
AMCC
nP7510
Lexra
2.5G NPU
IDT
MUSIC
NetLogic
Cypress/Lara
Motorola C-5
Paion
GEP2C02
BroadCom Agere
SB12500
APP550
MindSpeed
CX27470
1G NPU
AMCC
nP7120
Intel
IXP1200
EZchip
NP-2
Xelerate
d Packet
Cognigine
Bay
Micro
Paion
GEP2F24
IBM
Rainier
SiberCore
Internet
Machine
Clearwater
Agere
APP750
CAM
ClearSpeed
Intel
IXP2400
AMCC
nP7250
Storage processor
(TOE, iSCSI, FC)
Trebia
Silverback
Alacritech
Adaptec
Aristos
Qlogic
Vitesse
IQ2000
Wintegra
SwitchCore
CXE-16
Galileo
GalNet-3
Allayer
AL1032
29/70
[참고] Market Size and Market Share
[Dataquest, 2002]
30/70
tCAM Lookup Processor

IDT : Current market Leader




Cypress/Lara : 2nd leader






18Mb, 9Mb+LA-1, 288bit search with 50Msps, $250, Sampling [2002.8]
Ultra 18Mb Sampling [4Q02]
KLSI : Early lead with 4.5Mb



18Mb NSE Sample
Second-source agreement with Micron[2003.1]
Micron pulled out [2003.3]
SiberCore : superior


NSE1000/2000 - 18Mb & LA-1, 233Msps, Sample [4Q02]
Leverage Ayama technology M&A [Feb. 2002]
NetLogic : aggressive performance


Major wins for Cisco, Acquiring IBM solution
18Mb & LA-1, 100Msps, TSMC 0.13um, Sampling [2002.9]
250Msps version 18Mb Sample Planned [1Q03]
9Mb delaying with competitors shipping 18Mb
Retreat from tCAM market at Jan/2003
Micron/Music : Losing ground



Acquisition of Music - for low-end tCAM, 2002
Abandon internal development, Partnership with NetLogic
But, Micron pulled out from tCAM market [March 2003]
31/70
Packet Classifier
L4~7 Classification Chip
Application for Content Switching, Firewall, Virus scanning, Intrusion Detection
Rule memory
PMC ClassiPI
2.5Gbps
On chip (16K)
Layer 7 at lower rates, Based on SwitchOn
IDT/ Solidum
PAX.port
2.5Gbps
3 x64bit ZBT
SRAM
First, but limited appeal
2.5Gbps (SPI3, 2 GbE)
TSMC 0.18um, June 2002 Sampling, $199
Solidum M&A (2002.9, $10M)
Fast-Chip
Policy Edge
10Gbps
On chip (16K)
Powerful, Not Yet
Sample 2001.10, $450
Closed Operation
Hifn MFA
4Gbps
PC133 SDRAM Late Player
0.18um, $350, Sampling 2Q02
M&A (2000.5, Appititue)
SafeNet
ReGXP2G
2.5Gbps
On Chip (1MB), Better than PMC, Competing IDT
8K rule
2.5Gbps (SPI4)
Sampling 4Q02, M&A (Raquia, 2003.3, $7.5M)
32/70
[참고] Security Engines
Encryption Engines best suited for IPsec VPN applications
Integrated high-speed encryption engine with Network Processor will drive future
Gbps IPSec, SSL acceleration
Broadcom :





BCM5850 current fastest IPsec chip
4.8Gbps IPsec (3DES, SHA-1, AES)
PL3 interface to BCM1250 processor
2002 Oct Sample, $520
Move toward integrating security chip into other products
Cavium NitroxII



First flow-through 2~10Gbps IPsec & SSL performance
5Gbps IPsec, 38,000 SSL
2002.4 Sampling, $295~$795
HiFn HIPP-3






Market leader in security, but lost the technology leader to Cavium, Corrent, and Layer N
Single chip (Encryption, Classification)
20Gbps IPsec at 10GbE
Flow-through SPI4.2, HT, PCI-X
Sample Early 2003
Merging Appititude, MeterFlow, into Security processor


Deep packet analysis after packets are decrypted
10,000 or more SSL handshaking per second
Intel



10Gbps On-chip encryption engine with $245 premium
SHA, 3DS, AES for IPsec, SSL application
General Sample 2Q03
33/70
Switch Fabric
Ingress Queue(VOQ)
1
1
1
1
N
N
N
N
Grant
2.
3.
4.
5.
Egress Queue(OQ)
1
1
2
2
3
3
N
N
1
N
Configuration
Request
1.
Crossbar
Uni/Multicast
Arbitration
Flow Control
Scheduler
Ingress data when there is no backpressure signal, i.e., queue is not full
Each ingress Q requests for cell transfer to Egress port
Ingress Request Generation Block generates and send requests to destination ports
Grant Generation Block selects one request from ingress ports and grant a transfer
Start cell transfer
34/70
Switch Fabric Requirement
Switching Bandwidth Increase




Single stage 40~80G with 16 or 32 ports (Today)
Need 320G+, Terabit Scalability required
Shared memory : 80Gbps physical limit?
Crossbar : High speed implementation, intelligent scheduling
Efficient Scalability


Multi-stage architecture is inevitable for 10s of Tbps router - bit-slicing
method is limited
Performance is a factor of flow control, priority schemes, latency and
Non-blocking behavior for Unicast/Multicast/ Broadcast traffic
Total Cost of Ownership


Number of chips, power consumption, Multi shelf interconnect
Low Power high-speed Serial Technology
N+K redundancy trade-off is driven by system cost
Support for multiple services


IP, Ethernet, ATM, TDM
35/70
[참고] Market Forecast [2000]
Revenue
2000
2001
2002
2003
Multigigabit and Terabit Routers
1,781
3,525
5,738
8,250
Gigabit Ethernet Switches
3,263
5,756
8,560
11,126
10-Gigabit Ehternet Switches
0
71
714
1,784
Optical Cross-Connects
321
536
1,135
1,870
DWDM System
7,736
10,761
13,927
15,320
Total System
13,101
20,649
30,073
38,350
Total Switch Fabric chipset
328
516
752
959
System Revenue Forecast [Gartner Dataquest, October 2000] (Unit : $ Million )
Fast Ethernet Modular/gigabit ethernet switch
Server access management
WAN core switches
Remote access server concentrators
DSLAMs
Edge/core routers(gigabit/terabit IP)
Enterprise routers
2004
10,868
13,812
3,569
2,658
16,104
47,010
1,175
CAGR(%)
67.9
76.2
2000
2001
2002
2003
1000
10
500
100
10
1200
100
600
200
100
1400
150
800
300
150
1500
200
900
200
200
20
100
50
100
80
100
100
100
27.6
49.1
50.0
36/70
Switch Fabric Market Update [2003]
Market
Various analysts projected it to exceed $ 1 billion by 2004, with
CAGR 60%
 Market was too much over forecasted [Gartner Dataquest, 2000]
Service Provider Router Market [Synergy Research Group, 2003]
 But as we enter 2003, telecom continues to be moribund
 New chassis design launches are important for switch fabric
market; switch fabric is one of the first architecture decision point

37/70
Fabric Trend Update
More system upgrades than new chassis


Cap-ex spending is down
Design-win momentum slowing
Long-term fabric market is healthy


Most OEMs using merchant fabric silicon from in-house ASIC
New design will start again on 2004 for new box (06)


Backbone product design cycle : 6~7 years, last cycle was ’99
Volume and prices continue to decline
Slowdown forcing consolidation

Alliance are critical for success
Optimize cost/performance curve


Integrated fabric and Traffic Manager
Focus shifted from 10G to 1~2.5G application
Trend toward standard interface



Standard CSIX/SPI allows flexible choice of NPU
CSIX-L1 for OC-48, Many options in the spec
NPF-SI addressed 10G applications
38/70
Switch Fabric Players

PMC-Sierra



IBM




Through acquisition, AMCC provides total solutions
Latest product, nPX5800, scales to 160Gbps  being cancelled
PowerPRS will replace 5800
Yuni networks, fills the 640Gbps fabric solution
Agere




Leading incumbent vendors
GigaStream offers leading integration and power dissipation at OC-48
TeraStream has less competitive feature sets and lags in throughput
AMCC





10Gbps to 320Gbps, So far leader in fabric market
PowerPRS fabric marketed together with PowerNP network Processor
Pulled out Fabric market, Sold to AMCC at $47 million
Vitesse




Pulled out Fabric and network processing business
But the ace up MPC-Sierra’s sleeve could be microprocessor division
Third generation fabric Pi40, first commercial multi-terabit switch fabric
Leading product at throughput of 320Gbps and above
With 10Gbps NPU, Agere offers all the major components of router designs
Startups



Mindspeed, ZettaCom, Erlang, Paion
Many a startups pulled out
PowerX, TransWarp, PetaSwitch, Tau, TeraBlaze, TeraCross
39/70
Competition Map [Switch Fabric]
Agere PI40
80G/2.5Tbps
Marvell
•Prestera FX9130
TeraChip
•80G/5Tbps
•160G/1.28Tbps
•2003
•80Gbps(1SF+4QM)
•2003
AMCC
•2.5Tbps(32SF+128QM)
TeraCross
PetaSwitch
•Glimps
1000
•2Q02
Sample
nPX8005
•Pisces 40/1.2Tbps
•80G/1.2Tbps
•320Gbps(8SF+ 2SC+QM) •Agere 0.16um, $1100 •320Gbps(3chip)
•Intel FAB + IXP2800
•Sample 1H02
•640Gbps(16SF+ 4SC+QM)
•UMC 0.15um
IBM
•1.2Tbps(32SF+8SC+QM)
2.5Tbps
1.2Tbps
PMC
TTX
640Gbps
320Gbps
PMC ETT1
320Gbps
IBM Q64G
160/320Gbps
AMCC
Npx5800
20/160Gbps
160Gbps
EQ+
•160Gbps(4SF+16QM)
•320Gbps(8SF+32QM)
•1H/02
•20Gbps(1SF+ 1QM)
•160Gbps(8SF+ 4QM)
80Gbps
Agere PI-X
20/80Gbps
IBM 64G
40/80Gbps
•40Gbps(1SF+ 4QM)
•80Gbps(2SF+ 8QM)
AMCC
5500
20/40Gbps
Vitesse CS
32/64Gbps
Vitesse
GigaStream
20/80Gbps
Mindspeed
iScale
40/320Gbps
Vitesse
TeraStream
80/160Gbps
Broadcom ZettaCom Internet
TAU
Machine
•Gemini
•40/640G
•40G(1+4)
•40/640Gbps •320G(8+32) •80/640G
•3Q02
•640G(16+64)
Erlang
•3Q02
•80/640G
•40Gbps(1SF+2QM)
•320Gbps(8SF+16QM)
•TSMC 0.18um
•80Gbps(2SF+8QM)
•160Gbps(4SF+16QM)
•2Q/02, CSIX, 16class
•$1154+$690
•1Q/02, Utopia, 8class
•$240+$400
•2Q/01
2001
2002
2003
40/70
Switch Fabric Class
분야
가입자 및 에지
메트로
코어
대역폭
20 ~ 80 Gbps
40 ~ 320 Gbps
80 ~ 640+ Gbps
칩 가격 경쟁력
집적도, 확장성
고성능, 대용량 포트,
전력소모, 확장성
문제점
주요
경쟁사
AMCC nPX5800
20 Gbps
160G (8X, 4Q)
Vitesse TeraStream
40 Gbps
160G (4X, 16Q)
ZettaCom IXS250
40 Gbps
640G (16X, 64Q)
Vitesse
GigaStream
20 Gbps
80G (4X, 8Q)
IBM PRS-64G, Q64G
40 Gbps
320G (8X, 32Q)
AMCC nPX8005
40 Gbps
1.28T (32X, 8+128*2Q)
MindSpeed iScale
40 Gbps
320G (8X, 16Q)
Agere PI40
80 Gbps
2.5T (32X, 128Q)
41/70
[참고] Fabric Architecture Comparison
Product
Link speed
Switching
Bandwidth
Aggregate
Bandwidth
Switch Architecture
Cell/Frame
Interface
IBM
PRS64G
32x32@OC48
128Gbps
256Gbps (2chip)
Single stage shared memory
VOQ , 4 level priority
Fixed/Variable
(80B~160B)
DASL
500MHz
40~80Gbps
320Gbps (4chip)
4class, SP, VOQ(1024 cell,
40KB), OQ(512cell), 4 shared
memory bank(1024 row)
64-80B
UniLink
2.5GHz
IBM PRSEQ
AMCC
nPx5800
16x16@10G
bps
40Gbps
320Gbps
(8module)
Shared memory,
VOQ 256 Queue, 4 class,
Strict Priority
64B Packet/Cell
ViX v3 (VIX to
SPI-4 phase
2 conversion)
AMCC
nPx8000
[email protected]
bps
320Gbps
1.2 Tbps
Crossbar, 1024 VOQ (128
port, 8class),, Two * iSLIP,
Channelized Max. Matching
Fixed cell
(64 / 80B )
SerDes
Vitesse
VSC882
32x32@OC48
80Gbps
320 Gbps (4
chip)
Crossbar, 16 class, VOQ
(32+1, 2Mb), OQ(256kb),
80B
Variable/Fixed
CSIX (plan)
Agere PI40
[email protected], 80G, 160G
[email protected]
320G (20chip),
2.5T (160chip)
Shared memory+Crossbar
3 stage Clos, VOQ – 8K
cell(UC), 1K Cell(MC)
Variable/Fixed
(64,72,80B)
ZettaCom
ZEST-IXS
16x16 @OC48
40Gbps
640Gbps (16
+64chip)
8class, SP, Crossbar, 1K Cell buffer for
256 Q(UC: 4 class*64 port,
8class*32port), 2Q(MC:8 class)
68/80B, Fixed
Cell
CSIX : 64bit
250MHz
MindSpeed
iScale
16x16@OC48
40Gbps
320 Gbps
(24chip)
8class, SP, WRR, Crossbar,
2.5Mb shared memory buffer for
VOQ(512Q/UC,16Q/MC) & OQ
(64Q/UC,32Q/MC)
Fixed cell (72B)
Skyrail
3.125GHz
42/70
변화와 대안
Retrospect
Telco Crash
생태계(Eco-System) 의 변화
변화에 역동적으로 대응하는 실리콘 밸리 기업들
자금시장 변화
Network 기술 시장 대안
Network SOC 의 Re-positioning
43
Retrospect
Intelligence (Layer)
10G+ NPU
7
6
EZchip NP-1
Intel
Lexra
Agere
AMCC nP7510
Internet Machines
Silicon Access
Clearwater
Cognigine
Bay Micro
2.5G NPU
AMCC nP7250
Vitesse IQ2200
MindSpeed CX27470
BroadCom SB12500
5
Xelerated Packet Device
EZchip NP-2
ClearSpeed
Multi-Service Platform
Next Generation Mobile Infrastructure
Giga/Terabit Backbone
Intelligent and Secure
8
4
Motorola C-5
IBM Rainier
Vitesse IQ2000
Network SOC Roadmap
32
9
Cisco Juniper Charlotte Lucent
GSR12416 M160 Arenea-1 NX64000
56
Avici
TSR
Pluris
Teraplex
Nexsi Alteon Arrowpoint Foundry
F5
BGP-IP 8000 180+ CSS1100 ServerIron800
Intel
1G NPU
Custom WebIC
ASIC
MMC
IronCore
ASIC
Metro Ethernet Broadband
4
Foundry
Big Iron 15000
Fast Iron III
GEP4C04
Intel IXP1200
AMCC nP7120
3
Galileo GalNet-3
Intel
SwitchCore CXE-16
Intel
BroadCom
Acute
Allayer AL1032
24
Foundry
Fast Iron
II
32
Foundry
Fast Iron II+
64
48
32
Extreme
Alpine 3808
Summit7i
PMC-sierra ETT1
AMCC nP5800
Power X SX-16
ZettaCom ZEST-IXS
4
8
16
32
120
120
139
144
160
256
Cisco Extreme Black
Cajun Cisco
40 60 Extreme Black
Catalyst Diamond 6816
P882 Catalyst
6513
7606
Riverstone Diamond 6808
RS8600/
RS16000
64G SF
2
96
In-House ASIC
Riverstone
RS38000
320G SF
IBM PRS64G
MindSpeed CX27302
Paion GES0032
64
Agere PI40X/C
PMC-sierra TTX
IBM PRS-EQ
Vitesse VSC882
128
640G SF
AMCC nP8000
Velio VC2002
Paion MOSAIC
256
512
Bandwidth (Gbps)
2001.10.17 전략기술개발사업 기술기획
44/70
45/70
Telecom Collapse
Largest Network equipment buyers
Capital spending cut from $116B(00) to $46B(02) :60% drop
Telco revenue $197B for voice, $63B for data [2001 US]
Carriers spend 15% of revenues on equipment
Cut off 500,000 jobs in two years
61 service provider bankruptcies
11 of the top 25 money losing firms in 2001 were telecom


Total $107B losses
$470B of debt $
Not going to return to the late 1990s in a near-term recovery
New business strategies are required
46/70
Impact
Effects on Vendor




DSL, wireless, cable vendors devastated –
customers collapsed
Components awful – no new design wins
Optical very bad – revenues off 80%
Core routing bad – revenues off 50%
Effects on Financial Market

60,000 jobs lost in investment banking since 1/2001 - no
acquisitions or IPOs

2,500 companies were acquired or went public in
the 1996-2000 boom
Over 10,000 venture-backed private companies now
At least 7,500 (75% or more) will run out of money
in 2002-2005


47/70
Intel
AMCC
EZchip
Wintegra
생태계의 변화
Agere
Motorola
Silicon Access
ZettaCom
Internet Machines
Broadcom
Marvell
Vitesse
Zarlink
Power X
48/70
Market Value Erosion
Leader
Market cap (B) Market cap
9/30/00
(B) 9/30/01
Market cap
(B) 9/30/02
Chip
BRCM+PMCS+
AMCC
$114
$9
$6.5
Optical
JDSU+GLW
Network
Vendor
JNPR+CIEN+SC
MR+SONS+RBAK
+FDRY+EXTR
$177
$158
$17
$10
$6.2
$7.5
Major
CSCO+LU+NT
$677
$127
$105
ILEC
BLS+Q+SBC+VZ
$452
$407
$209
$1578
$569
$335
Total
49/70
Stock Market
50/70
Alternative
Find the bottom
Look for a safe niche
Hibernate and wait for an upturn
Seek government intervention
Explore non-US opportunities
Proper market & technology




Vendors/investors forced to abandon innovative nextgeneration products
Telco spend money to save money, not for new services
Go after enterprise market instead?
What about consumer/residential market?
51/70
Alternative Technology ..
Still Most Promising



Security (SSL/VPNs, firewalls, IDS, identity management, attack
mitigation)
Wireless (WLANs, roaming, fixed broadband)
Storage networks (NAS, SANs migration to Storage networks
over IP)
Still Must



Switching (metro, more VPN “flavors”)
Sell to technologically-backward incumbents
New SONET and MSPP , softswitches
Lagging



VoIP (SIP, ENUM, virtual PBX services)
Transport (10 Gig Ethernet)
Optical (40 Gig SONET/SDH, optical transmission, GMPLS)
52/70
Example: Fusion of Home Network and
Entertainment Cluster
With broadband growth starting to slow, Telco’s are serious about
investigating the smart home network segment for value added
broadband services -- Residential gateway Integrates cable
modem/router/wireless access point



Home networking has become a bigger focus of the CE industry
Products are emerging to enable connectivity between the home data
network and the entertainment cluster at reasonable price point
The next wave of interconnectedness between devices will not for basic
data/broadband sharing, but instead for the fusion of the PC and
entertainment worlds in the form of media center
Silicon vendors rush




Standard Activity : 802.15
Microsoft – the biggest splash with the media center edition of XP
Intel – media center reference design and the push to get CE vendors to
create a new product category around the media center
Motorola - connected home
53/70
Example: Home Networking
Disk Array
(Server)
UWB
WiFi
1394
UWB
IEEE1394
802.11
CPU
Switching
FE
PHY
Optional IPSec
SA and SSL
Content memory
EPON(FTTH)
Super VDSL
Metro Ethernet
PCI
NPU
802.11 AP
Home Media Server
Firewall
Security
Billing
Ratelimiting
EPON
MAC
8 x FE
System
memory
54/70
Example: Wireless+Security
QoS with guaranteed SLA, Bandwidth rate limiting
 Application-based flow classification for VoIP and streaming media
 AP & L3/L4 Load Balancing
Wireless Mobility Security



Encryption for WEP, TKIP and AES, Kerberos Security
VPN(L2TP/IPSec)
Wireless Management
Serial and Power over Ethernet
802.11
AP
63 m
55/70
Example: Wireless/Mobile Coexistence
HLR/VLR
IWF
PSTN
Radio Access Network
E1/T1
Voice Network
MSC: Mobile
Switching Center
BTS 1
E1/T1
AAA
HA
OAM
E1/T1
BTS n
Roaming / Handoff
ATM/IP
BSC
Data Network
Fast Ethernet
Base Station
Controller
PDSN
Packet Data
Serving Node
Data
Network
Internet
Wireless LAN
802.11 AP
Metro Ethernet Switch
Wireless Switch
56/70
Repositioning: Ethernet Switch Processor
Market




GbE switch silicon revenue : $348 million in 2002, $540 million 2004, and $1.063 billion
in 2007, 25% CAGR, [IDC, March 2003]
Broadcom and Marvell owned 90 percent of the market in 2002, the split was about 6040, Mostly Fast Ethernet market
Sweet-spot : 24/16/8 port
Until now, GbE switches were considered to be too expensive for all but enterprise
applications. However, GbE-enabled laptops, PCs and network interface cards (NICs)
are driving the cost of GbE to all-time lows. This has accelerated the demand for higher
bandwidth GbE switch performance across all segments of the market, further
increasing volumes and reducing cost.
Player




Broadcom – announced 24 port and 16 port GbE switch on Sep. 2003, and provides 4-,
5-, and 8-port GbE switch with integrated PHY, General sampling Oct. 2003
Marvell – Announced 24 port GbE switch, Prestera-EX242, on Feb., Integrated
SERDES with 24 port GbE on Apr. 2003,
Vitesse – announced Stapleford(VSC7303) – 24 port GbE switch chip, doing Layer 4
processing on April. 2003, Announced Heathrow-II, 16 port GbE on 2002 Spring
Others : Zarlink, Realtek, ADMtek, SwitchCore, Via, Paion
Issues




Integration up to Layer 3, Filtering. SERDES and PHY consideration in future
Cost : < $6~8 / GbE port
Power : < 0.2 ~0.25 watt/ GbE port
Foundry : 0.13um CMOS process
57/70
Competition Map [Ethernet Switch Processor]
40/160Gbps
TeraStream
24GE
VSC7303
(Stapleford)
20/80Gbps
GigaStream
16GE
VSC7301
(Heathrow-II)
VITESSE
CrossStream
24GE+
M&A(Sitera) M&A(Exbit) Drop(NPU)
MARVELL
80G~5Tbps
SERDES
24GE
Prestera EX242
$200+
4G+48FE
24GE
40~640Gbps
M&A(Galileo)
13GE
2G+24FE
BROADCOM
Prestera EX241
$600
BCM5633
BCM5345
0.13um
BCM5615
M&A(Allayer, SiByte)
2002
2003
58/70
New Roadmap
59/70
60/70
SoC 산업의 성공적인 미래
Global Trend
중국 시장의 부상
Eco-System 측면에서 시스템 산업, Foundry
제품화 Mind의 기술 개발 - Product Planning
Trend 읽기 – 문화
기술 마케팅 – TCP, 시장과 성당
교육적인 측면에서
61
Global Trend
FTA 로 인한 경제 글로벌화 가속


IT 버블 붕괴, 인력구조조정
일본- 통합화, 미주/유럽-공동개발 Alliance 활발
Foundry 산업


12” Fab. 건설비용 25억불, AMD+UMC, STMicro+Philips 합작 추진
Infineon  SMIC 투자
차세대표준주도권

Core Open Standard화 -ARM, MIPS, SH, TI, StarCore, Trimedia
중화권 급부상






반도체 시장 아시아 비중 증가 (2002년 40%)
아시아 시장의 重要성 대두 - “왜 우리가 한국 등 아시아에 Behind 되고
있는가?” “연방정부가 나서야 한다.” [NGN, Broadband session, 2002]
중국 2005 275억(세계시장의 14%), 미/일본-비중감소
대만 : Foundry-> SoC로 사업확대, Fabless Design House (> 1억$ ) 10개이상
중국 : Foundry 본격진출, 대만에서  중국으로 Foundry 위주로 산업 개편
미국/한국/일본등 - 위기로 대두
62/70
Network Eco System
네트워크 생태계의 건강의 중요성 – Otherwise, arteriosclerosis
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BCN (Broadband Convergence Network) 성공적 로드맵
서비스의 발전, 표준화, 시스템벤더, SoC 의 구현
TCO 최적화를 위한 Embedded Software 및 Foundry 발전의 연계
SoC 발전을 위한 테스트베드 시스템의 투자
eBay
AOL
Daum
Yahoo
NHN
KT China
MCI
Comcast
Telecom
CISCO Nortel
Redback
Huawei
Vitesse AMCC
Intel Broadcom
Agere PMC
Marvell
Motorola
Bandwidth Service,
Culture Creation
Revenue Generation,
Value Creation, Recovery
End-to-End intelligence,
TCO Minimization
Silicon cycle out-sourcing,
End to End Solution,
Market Window
63/70
Foundry
Fabrication
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Downturn – outsourcing strategy from foundry
China semiconductor market $16B (02), $31B(06) [Gartner Dataquest]
Big 3 – TSMC, UMC, … > $8.4B, 90% total
Prospect Foundry sales $25B (07) [Scottsdale IC insights]
TSMC
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$4.6B (02), 28% , 40% market share
$2.57B (10th, 1H03) cf. Intel $12.21B (1st, 1H03)
0.18um + 0.18um > 85 % sales
Altera, ATI, Motorola, nVidia, Broadcom, TI, Via
UMC
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Fab alliance with AMD
Infineon $3.6B partnership
IBM
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Next serious player
6.1% market share, became Rank 4th  3rd, (02)
AMD, nVidia, Xilinx, Qualcomm, Broadcom
SMIC
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Cost advantage
300 mm wafer at 0.11um, investment by Infineon
Chartered partnership for < 90ns
Broadcom, Elpida, Fujitsu, Infineon, Toshiba
64/70
65/70
중국
선진국의 돈과 새로운 에너지가 모이는 곳
상해
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면적 6000km^2, 1700만
90.4 포동개발 시작, 연평균 20% 
전체 경제 성장율 12%
황하와 천안문사태
연안도시 상해 중점개발, 효과를 몸통(장강) 통해
사천성 (꼬리) 등 내륙까지 미치게 한다는 경제발전 전략
개인적인 견해
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미국의 주적으로 부상
10년전 일본에 의한 경제헤게모니로 인한 미국 자존심의 상처는,
10여년후 중국에게서 올 수도
엔지니어로 계속살아 남으려면 중국어를 해야할지도
66/70
북경지역
텐진
내륙지역
상하이
(포동)
반도체, IT
저장성
홍콩
67/70
68/70
Education
Demand Creation
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Story, Contents
Digital Life – Emotion,Temptation
Culture 에 대한 이해
Feature vs. Benefit
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TCP (Target Customer Profile) - 마켓의 소리듣기
TCO (Total Cost of Ownership)
Engineering Education
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안목과 소양
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기술적 능력
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문화와 역사, 인류학
기술정책, 산업전략, 상품화 능력
Technology Leadership
Technical Marketing
기술의 경쟁적 Positioning
제품화 Mind의 기술개발
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Product Planning
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고객을 공동의 개발자로 생각하라 [시장과 성당 (cathedral and bazaar) ]
69/70
맺음말 - 변화와 위험
인생에서 가장 큰 위험은 위험을 감수하지 않는 것이다.
“So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we
have to fear is fear itself– nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror
which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.”
Saturday, March 4, 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt
At the time, he was speaking of the crisis that was facing the
nation—the “Great Depression.” Today, we reflect on his word, in
light of the crisis that now confronts this nation.
[email protected]
70/70