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The Evolution of the Net: Predicting Network Infrastructure Bruce R. Schatz Graduate School of Library and Information Science University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (USA) Graduate School of Informatics Kyoto University (August 2001 – July 2002) [email protected], www.canis.uiuc.edu Graduate School of Informatics Kyoto University, June 14, 2002 The Future of Infrastructure Niels Bohr on Quantum Theory “Prediction is very Difficult, especially about the Future” What is Infrastructure? Infra means Inside Structure means Support Infrastructure is: Essential Services for Everyday Life Universal Protocols to Help Users Infrastructure Evolves to Deeper Levels New Technologies become Generic Enough Outline of Talk The Evolution of Infrastructure The Waves of the Net Technology supports Amateurs Data Information Knowledge The Laws of the Net The Basic Units of Evolution Evolution of Infrastructure Everyone becomes An Expert with Interactive Support The Structures of Everyday Life Bodies (physical interactions) Rails (trains) and Roads (cars) Communication (groups) Houses and Cities Transportation Food and Clothes Buildings (individuals) (logical interactions) Phones (talking) and Computers (retrieving) How Infrastructure Scales Experts are Effective but Expensive Volume forces Provider Pyramid Initially: All things done by Experts Eventually: Most things done by Amateurs A few experts at the top A lot of amateurs at the bottom Infrastructure supports Ordinary People Everyone becomes a little bit of an Expert Most interactions done by amateurs Example: Talking Transmission of Messages The Telegraph of the 19th Century Generated by a person and Sent to another Network connects Operators to Operators Station to Station, trained professionals Operator transmits coded message The Telephone of the 20th Century Person to Person, untrained amateurs Person speaks in ordinary words Infrastructure transmits coded message Example: Retrieving Search of Archives Bibliographic Search of the 20th Century Generated by many and Retrieved by many Network connects Archives to Users Station to Station, trained professionals Librarian queries central archives Web Search of the 21st Century Person to Person, untrained amateurs Person types in ordinary words Infrastructure queries central archives Provider Pyramids Emerge Telephone Network was Station-Station Volume forced Network to Person-Person Person talked to Telephone Operator E.g. “get me a doctor!” Operator did manual switching to Person In 1900, everyone must become an operator In 2000, everyone is an operator! Amateurs use directories then dial numbers Infrastructure supports Everyday Activity Automatic switching scales to volume The Evolution of Infrastructure Experts handle Everyday Structures Increased Volume forces Provider Pyramid Provide services that become essential Amateurs handle most Interactions Infrastructure supports Amateurs Evolution proceeds by Copying Experts New Protocols approximate Experts Generic Technologies that always work Infrastructure adopts new Protocols The Waves of the Net Network Infrastructure Evolves from Data to Information to Knowledge What is the Net? The Net connects Everyone to Everything The Functionality of the Net Evolves Global Network Infrastructure Universal Protocols to support Interactions Data to Information to Knowledge Deeper Levels with Stronger Technologies At Any Level, the User only sees Outside Infrastructure is Inside, thus Invisible The Web is just the Present not the Future Someday, the Net will be true Cyberspace Waves of the Net Data – The Past Information – The Present Wave 2, WorldWide Web (librarians) Wave 3, Interspace (searching documents) Knowledge – The Future Wave 0, Telephone (copying operators) Wave 1, Internet (transmitting packets) Wave 4, HealthCare Monitors (doctors) Wave 5, Intermodel (analyzing vectors) Wisdom – The Goal Transmitting Data Telephone Network of the 19th Century Wave 0, Multiplexed Telegraph Digital Bits basic Syntax for Transmission Packets are the paradigm Packets are grouped Bits Address and Routing for Packets Bits interpreted only by local computers The Internet First Universal Physical Wave Wave 1, Protocols across Networks Universal across packet networks (IP) Files from computer to computer Distributed File Systems Files cluster Bits within Computers Assemble Files from Bits using Packets (TCP) Transmit Files across Computers (FTP) Searching Information WorldWide Web of the 20th Century Wave 2, Hyperlink Transmission (HTTP) Digital Words basic Semantics for Search Documents are the paradigm Documents are grouped Words (HTML) Classification and Indexing for Documents Words interpreted only by local repositories The Interspace First Universal Logical Wave Wave 3, Protocols across Spaces Universal across document spaces Concepts from repository to repository Distributed Concept Systems Concepts cluster Words within Repositories Assemble Concepts from Words using Documents Search Concepts across Repositories Universal Information Units Basic Concepts of Natural Language Fundamental Grouping needed for Semantics Specialized to specific Community Collections Essential Technologies all Converging Document Representation (XML, RDF) Language Parsing (multiword noun phrases) Statistical Indexing (contextual frequencies) Peer-Peer Networking (local computations) Concept Switching (vocabulary translations) Same Process, Deeper Level The Interspace, using Libraries Subject thesaurus, yields Concept space Subject classification, yields Concept map From words to concepts From networks to spaces The Intermodel, using Lifestyles Reality problem, yields Structure model Reality solution, yields Structure cluster From features to structures From spaces to models Analyzing Knowledge Lifestyle Grid of the 21st Century Wave 4, Full-spectrum Questionnaires Digital Features basic Pragmatics for Analysis Vectors are the paradigm Vectors are grouped Features Comparison and Clustering for Vectors Features interpreted only by local situations Healthcare Infrastructure Monitors for each Individual Capture everyday lifestyle status Customized questionnaires for healthcare Build detailed database of health vectors Managers for each Individual Daily Feature Record for each Individual Detailed Databases for whole Population Analyze Clusters of Similar Individuals The Intermodel First Universal Representational Wave Wave 5, Protocols across Models Universal across vector models Features from individual to individual Distributed Structure Systems Structures cluster Features within Individuals Assemble Structures from Features using Vectors Analyze Structures across Individuals Universal Knowledge Units Basic Structures of Everyday Life World Categories needed for Pragmatics Similar Structures from Many Subjects Medicine, categories of health status Computing, TCOL versus UNCOL Anthropology, cross-cultural universals Psychology, basic natural categories Architecture, design patterns for comfort life History, structures of everyday life Realizing Wisdom Zen Buddhism The Ocean including all Waves Direct Interaction with Reality Beyond Words and Concepts Zen Koans Curriculum process of realization exercises Become “one with the koan”, achieve Satori Richi -- Reality Challenge, e.g. “Mu” Kikan – Reality Interaction, e.g. “Oak Tree” The Intermind First Universal Spiritual Wave Wave N, Protocols across Minds Universal across Mind Realities Hive Mind on the Net, There is no Self! Religions to model Lifestyles richi (koan) for monitor (health) kikan (koan) for manager (health) Mimic basic structures not details Interactive navigation through automated clusters not automated decision-making Metaphors across Waves Capturing Operators yields Internet Capturing Librarians yields Interspace Capturing Doctors yields Intermodel Capturing Roshi-s yields Intermind The Laws of the Net Predicting Units of Network Infrastructure for Deeper Evolution Philosophy of Informatics Physics in the 20th Century Newtonian Mechanics is Western philosophy Deterministic Laws predict all motion Quantum Mechanics is Eastern philosophy Probabilistic Computations are uncertain Informatics in the 21st Century Database Retrieval is Western philosophy Deterministic Rules match correct results Information Retrieval is Eastern philosophy Statistical Clusters suggest useful results Levels of Abstraction Deeper Levels drive Later Waves Each Level built upon the Previous Level Each Wave has a fundamental level Deeper composed from Shallower units level N-2 ordered by (ob) units level N-1 Context of N-2 within N-1 yields N Laws predict Future Units Information Space, Knowledge Model Units of Abstraction Metaphors Situations documents ob concepts Concepts concepts ob categories Categories categories ob structures Structures structures ob situations terms ob documents Documents words ob terms The Science of Informatics New Units from Old Units New Waves from Old Waves Predict Future Units from Current Units Predict Future Protocols from Current Same Processes, New Technologies Context as Meaning, Statistics as Truth Deeper Levels are Closer to Reality