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The Evolution of Triple Play: VOIP, IMS, FMC, WiMAX, IPTV Triple Play Symposium 2006 Dallas, Boston, Paris Rick Thompson Senior Analyst, Heavy Reading Heavy Reading Research • Heavy Reading has published numerous research reports, analyzing the current state of the technology & expected market development for topics including IPTV, VOIP, IMS, FMC, Carrier Ethernet, IP DSLAMs, ROADMs, Pseudowires, AdvancedTCA, Next-Gen SONET, etc. • Heavy Reading next-gen broadband/IPTV research 2005 and 2006: • IPTV and the Future of Telecom Video Network Architectures (6/05) • IP DSLAMs: A Heavy Reading Competitive Analysis (8/05) • MSAPs: A Heavy Reading Competitive Analysis (10/05) • IP Video and the New Broadband Edge (12/05) • DSL Gateways: Beyond the Router (2/06) • Multimedia Whole-Home Networking: Solving the IPTV Distribution Dilemma (4/06) • The Future of Internet TV: Emerging “Over-the-Top” Internet Video Services (planned Summer 2006) • Heavy Reading conducted interviews with hundreds of technology suppliers, service providers & investors with a direct interest in telecomrelated topics. Beyond Triple Play: Flexibility Is the Killer APP Entertainment Productivity/Reference On-Line Gaming Security Communications Voice (VoIP) Downloads Real-Time Play Multiplayer Hosting Anti-Virus Firewall SPAM URL Filtering Personal Video Streaming Music Home Monitoring Email Streaming Audio Info Services Radio Concerts Financial, News, Travel Video Distributed Printing Tiered VPN Fax Services Instant Messaging IP/PC TV Video on Demand Pay Per View Digital Video Recording Images, Video, Data Online Collaboration Info Services Dynamic Bandwidth Upgrades Wireless Backhaul Sports, Games, Hobbies Photos, Etc. Personal Storage Video Telephony Incumbent Dilemmas, 2005 • British Telecom • Retail revenues down 2.5% • Retail profits down 10% • Deutsche Telecom • Domestic revenues down 1.6% • Broadband/fixed revenues down 3.6% • France Telecom • Domestic residential revenues down 1.2% • Domestic enterprise revenues down 5.4% • KPN • Fixed network revenues down 4% • Business revenues down 9% Major Themes • VOIP will be the dominant wireline telephony technology within five years– situation is less certain on the wireless side • IMS has won near-universal support among service providers, and is driving RFPs for NGNs • WiFi, WiMax and IP could disrupt the mobile telephony cartel, with major long-term consequences • Multimegabit broadband networks will spread rapidly in the next five years, with telcos moving increasingly to FTTx after 2008 • This transition is being driven by the need to provider highquality video content, including HDTV and online gaming • This in turn is having a major impact on home technologies, where the market is wide open to innovation By 2007, VOIP Will Dominate When do you expect to see more than 50% of voice traffic carried over IP on your network? Access Core 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Percentage of respondents Already is Within 1 year 1-2 years More than 2 years away Source: Heavy Reading Survey of Service Provider Attitudes to VOIP, August 2005. Base: 125 Service Providers Never 100% Mainstream VOIP Is a Reality • Service provider VOIP deployment plans • VOIP versus Internet voice Source: The Future of VOIP: A Heavy Reading Service Provider Study, September 2005 There Are Still Technical Barriers On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is "not an obstacle" and 5 is "a major obstacle," please rate the effect of the following factors in preventing or hindering the deployment of VOIP in your company Lack of vendor interoperability, vendor lock-in Lack of agreed QoS across net boundaries Network security and reliability concerns Difficulties controlling call quality 911, wiretapping and related issues No clear or interoperable standards Initial costs of (subsidizing) CPE Regulatory barriers Difficulties making a clear business case Problems integrated with legacy infastructure Lack of attractive devices or terminals Problems controlling or reducing opex Might cannibalize existing revenues Lack of user interest, or real demand 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 Average score 3.2 3.4 3.6 IMS Research Findings • The 2006-2007 time period will be the most important period in FMC, IMS and NGN technology and service development. • For service providers, IMS's main appeal is its ability to provide more applications faster and at lower cost. • Fixed/mobile convergence is an important secondary motivator. • Although IMS is seen primarily as a mechanism for deploying revenue-generating applications, there is little agreement about which applications should be deployed first, and this lack of consensus may delay carrier implementations. • IMS is a complex specification, and there are gaps in the standards, especially around policy control and service creation. • There are strong parallels and linkages between IMS and two other emerging industry standardization movements: service delivery platforms and AdvancedTCA. When IMS? When do you expect to see widespread deployment of IMS in your company's networks? By the end of 2006 In 2007-2008 After 2008 Never Don't know/not sure 0 10 20 30 Percentage of Respondents Source: Heavy Reading Fall 2005 Survey of Service Provider Technology Deployment Plans 40 50 Why IMS? • Layered architecture • Separates transport, control and applications • “We can buy best of breed at every layer!” • Access-agnostic • Simpler convergence of fixed and mobile networks • “Services no longer tied to access network technology!” • IP applications • With QoS, security, charging • “A means to fight IP applications leakage to the Internet!” • New kinds of applications • Blended together • “Higher ARPU, lower churn!” • More applications, much more quickly, at much lower cost • But controlled, supplied and billed by service provider • “No need to rely on a few killer apps!” Apps and Services Drive IMS What is the most important factor driving IMS deployment in your company? Reduce service and applications development costs Deliver applications that combine voice, data and video Environment to enable quick and easy launch of new services Converge fixed and mobile services 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Percentage of Respondents Source: Heavy Reading 2006 Survey of Service Provider Plans for IMS. Base: 93 Service Providers Service Providers Buy The FMC Vision “Within the next decade, the first link in every network will always be wireless-cellular, WiFi, WiMax, UWB, and so on-and devices will automatically choose the most appropriate type of wireless link based on location, price, and bandwidth.” Don't know/Not sure Disagree Agree 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: Heavy Reading Survey of Service Provider Attitudes to Fixed-Mobile Convergence, November 2004. Base: 109 Service Providers 60% 70% Expect FMC to Transform the Industry "Within the next decade, fixed-mobile convergence will gradually eliminate the border between wireline and wireless carriers and service providers. A new breed of supercarrier that uses any appropriate network technology to serve its customers will have emerged." Don't know/Not sure Disagree Agree 0% 20% 40% 60% Source: Heavy Reading Survey of Service Provider Attitudes to Fixed-Mobile Convergence, November 2004. Base: 109 Service Providers 80% 100% FMC Is A Higher Priority For European Service Providers AsiaPac Europe NA 0% 20% 40% Top Priority Important 60% 80% Less Important 100% Obstacles To FMC Progress What is the biggest obstacle at present to FMC? Poor coordination betw een w ired/w ireless service providers Inability to ensure QoS across netw ork/service boundaries Legacy infrastructure Lack of real demand Lack of attractive handsets Security and authentication Badly designed services or interfaces Don't know / not sure 0 5 10 15 20 25 Percentage of respondents Source: Heavy Reading Fall 2005 Survey of Service Provider Technology Deployment Plans 30 WiMAX Deployment Plans • Network operators are overwhelmingly positive about the impact WiMax will have on networks • WiMax enthusiasm cuts across all types of carriers and across all geographic regions • The next 12 to 18 months will be critical in determining carrier investment in WiMax • More than 80 percent of survey respondents expect to see WiMax deployments by the end of 2007 • Network operators are surprisingly open to deploying WiMax using unlicensed spectrum, but interest in pre-standard WiMax products is slight • Carriers expect to use WiMax to bolster delivery of voice, data, and even triple-play services, but there’s less interest in WiMax for wireless backhaul WiMAX Product Maturity WiMAX Deployment Plans Mobile or Fixed WiMAX? Mobile WiMAX • The first Mobile WiMax services will launch in Korea in mid 2006, using Samsung equipment; U.S. service launches will follow, possibly as soon as 2007 • Stealth chipset startups are attempting to leapfrog the market and go directly to Mobile WiMax; names in the frame include Beecem, SiWave, Cygnus, Runcom • Adaptix claims to have already demonstrated system-level mobility based on scaleable OFDMA • A market for 802.16e line cards and software will emerge alongside demand for smart antenna software suites, as major fabs and OEMs catch on to Mobile WiMax's potential • Initial services will offer handoff performance suitable for data, but unsuitable for VOIP services IPTV: Telecom Meets Entertainment • TV delivery is moving from HFC-based broadcast to IP-based multicast/unicast • Telcos: IPTV, Telco TV, Telco Video (different names, same thing) • MSOs: SDV initiatives; NGNA (many IPTV-like concepts) • “Internet TV” is organically evolving in parallel • Google, Yahoo, Apple, YouTube, MLB.com, major broadcast channels, etc. • Technology platforms: Brightcove, Narrowstep, thePlatform, Veoh, etc. • Network technologies: DPI, Policy Control, granular QoS • Video search engines, P2P video file sharing, etc. • Competitive or complimentary to IPTV? • Regardless of the model, multimedia content is driving telecom • Wireline • Wireless Technology Shifts Impacting Market Evolution • Compression & format: MPEG2 MPEG4; SD HD • More channels, lower bit rates • Access network: 1.5-3 Mbit/s 20-30+ Mbit/s; ATM Ethernet/IP • Combination xDSL/FTTx • Aggregation network: ATM GigE/10GigE, IP multicast, QOS • Right amount of aggregation layer intelligence? • IP edge: High density/capacity, Ethernet-centric, per-service QOS, unicast/multicast scale, integrated B-RAS, high-availability edge • Transport network: static/legacy reconfigurable/multiservice • Services evolve: Broadcast TV VOD PVR/nPVR integrated & interactive services • Mobile & IMS? • Internet TV? Phase III: 2008 – 2010 Service Differentiation Subscriber Scale IPTV Inflection Points Phase II: 2006 – 2007 Quality of Experience Phase I: 2004 - 2005 Technical Viability Focus on initial network & service layer infrastructure. Modest, controlled service rollouts. Basic service offerings. Basic Broadcast TV (IP Multicast) Initial, Limited VOD Focus on service assurance and QoE for existing services and continue adding new services: enhanced channel package, additional HD content, additional VOD content, subscription VOD, time-shifting. PVR, nPVR MPEG-4 HD Focus on scaling number of IPTV subscribers and introducing “integrated services.” Also includes potential IMS Integration. Portfolio Expansion: More HD, VOD, PVR Multicast to Unicast Service Mix Integrated Services IPTV Market Evolution Integrated Communication, Information, Entertainment End-to-End IPTV: A Brief Overview Content Owner/Aggregator Video Content Acquisition Residential Subscriber TELECOM OPERATOR National Video HeadEnd Office Broadband Routing Network Infrastructure Broadband Aggregation Network Infrastructure Broadband Access Network Infrastructure Multimedia Home Network End-to-End Policy Control VoIP DSLAM Content Providers Super Head-End Office (SHO) Video Hub Office (VHO) IP STB Video Serving Office (VSO) RG Copper 20th Century Fox General Electric News Corp. Sony Time Warner Viacom Walt Disney Etc. Broadcast Video Head-End System Edge Router/ B-RAS Core Router an/.or Edge Router/ B-RAS Middleware, CA/DRM OLT/ONU ONT Edge Encoders VOD Server Complex Regional/LH Transport Live and On Demand Content Acquired From Multiple Satellite and Terrestrial Broadcast Programming Sources. PC Fiber Gigabit Ethernet Aggregation Redundant National SHOs Ingest & Distribute IP-based Video Content. Centralized VOD Libraries May Exist. Metro Transport Numerous Regional VHOs Receive National Content from SHOs and Ingest & Distribute Regional Content and IP VOD. Local VSOs Receive & Distribute Content from Upstream. Local Channels and Distributed VOD Also Served From VSO. OLT Various Copperand Fiber-based Access Networks In Place To Deliver IPTV to the Residential Subscriber. ONU SP Controlled Subscriber Premise: ONT/NID, Residential Gateway, IP STB/DVR, PC, VoIP, In-Home Distribution Network IPTV Bandwidth Requirements • Video • IPTV with MPEG2 compression • Standard Definition 3.5Mbps • High Definition 19.3Mbps • IPTV with MPEG4 compression • Standard Definition 2.0Mbps • High Definition 8.0Mbps Centralized Architectures? Broadband Access Network Residential Gateway Broadband Aggregation Network Broadband Edge Network Policy Control Server Broadband Aggregation Switches/Routers IP/MPLS Core Voice n Homes B’cast Video Broadband Access Nodes VOD Broadband Edge Router HSI Distributed Architectures? Broadband Access Network Residential Gateway Broadband Aggregation Network Broadband Aggregation Switches/Routers Broadband Edge Network Policy Control Server IP/MPLS Core Voice B’cast Video n Homes Broadband Access Nodes VOD Broadband Edge Router Regional/Local Video Content HSI Network Dimensioning Is Critical Broadband Access Broadband Aggregation Residential Gateway Broadband Edge •Centralized Policy Management •Video CAC •Topology Intelligence •Quality Measurement Distributed Policy Enforcement Voice n Homes B’cast Video GigE/10GigE Aggregation Switches/Routers Access Nodes VOD Edge Router HSI Regional/Local Video Content 2 1 HSI IPTV VoIP First Mile: Aggregate bandwidth needed for all services VOD B’cast 3 Second Mile: Concurrent VOD sessions Non-blocking Multicast TV channels VOD B’cast 4 Third Mile: Max. concurrent VoD sessions Fourth Mile: Link bandwidth equals server capacity VOD controller limits total amount of streams QOE Measurement •Accurate measurement of: • Overall video service quality • Usage per channel and viewer density • VoD concurrency, channel changes • User Quality of Experience Is essential to: Monitor SLAs and troubleshoot issues Dimension capacity and tune VoD CAC “IPTV2”: SureWest • • • • • • • Improved integration Emerging standards Next-Gen STBs Improved compression Improved QoS Improved security Interactive features IPTV Work in Progress • Home networking solutions • Ability to utilize existing home wiring • Wireless • Next-Gen STBs • SD, HD, PVR, Gateways • Content • Interactive applications Multimedia Home Networking Taxonomy Remote Mgmt. User Interface Home Devices TR-069: WAN-side CPE Mgmt WT-111: Remote Mgmt of home devices (TR-069 pass-thru) TR-064: LAN side CPE Mgmt Multimedia CPE UI Technologies: IPTV Browser, EPG, TV/PC Web Browser, Video Search and Navigation Network Connected Multimedia CPE: IP STB, DVR, Home Gateway, Media Bridges, PC/Laptop, Media Server, Gaming Console, Etc. (Other Critical Technologies: MPEG-4 Decoders, DRM S/W) Standard/ Technology IEEE 802.3 HPNAv3 MoCA Proprietary HPNAv3 Physical Medium Ethernet Cable (CAT-5,6) Coaxial Cable (RG6, RG59) Twisted Pair Phoneline Access Network WT-135: STB Object model HomePlug AV Proprietary (UPA) Electrical Powerline IEEE 802.11x Air Copper and/or Fiber Infrastructure: ADSL2plus, VDSL2, FTTx (Home Networking WAN Interfaces Integrated into NID and/or ONT) Thank You! Q&A