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The Network Effect
1
UNIVERZITY KARLOVY V PRAZE - 650th year
Konference Oct. 19 - 21, 1998
Monday Oct. 19.
+/- 11.00 - 11.45, Prague, Czech Republic
The Network Effect
Prof. ir. Jaap W.J. van Till
Stratix Consulting Group BV
Amsterdam Airport Schiphol
Corporate Network Chair
Information Technology and Systems Faculty
Delft University of Technology
The Netherlands
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Agenda
1. Introduction
Future- proof ? Transformations !!!
2. Economic growth drivers and what limits them.
Bandwidth Bottlenecks.
3. What causes the demand explosion for datacommunication.
Who needs it most, now.
4. Is there an upper bound for this bursty, self-similar traffic?
5. How can we approach the problems
The Staircase Model, IP on Lambda, Smart Photon Trucks
6. What next. Bandwidth Hotels and Server Farms
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The demand for bandwidth by applications like electronic mail and World Wide
Web grows exponentially, because of falling costs and standardisation on the
Internet Protocol
7,0
6,0
5,0
Gigabit/s
Transatlantic capacity
for IP from the
Netherlands
4,0
3,0
Transatlantic capacity
for telephony from
the Netherlands
2,0
1,0
0,0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
• The transatlantic bandwidth from the Netherlands
avialable for IP has already overtaken the capacity for
voice telephony
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2. Economic growth drivers and what limits them.
• Knowledge work : “Interactions” between people
Economy USA: 54 % of worktime spent on i-i
Europe: 48%, India: 36%
• Networking crosses boundaries of time and distance
• Bandwidth Bottlenecks: bit volume, packet behaviour
Bandwidth availability, digital line capacity
Requirements: no-fail, manageable,scalable,cost
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What causes the exponential “explosions”:
• the network effect,
why :
new lifeform ?
• Metcalfe’s Law : N*(N-1) , reach more
• van Till: the telescope model, better picture!
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The telescope metaphore : a better picture for all
Different
angle
distance
size
NETWORK
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The new weaving of networks
Tribes
Groups
Indiv. People
Knowledge
WWW
Computer systems
Network connections
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3. What causes the demand explosion for datacommunication.
Who needs it most, now.
• High speed computer applications, supercomputers
• Backbones for Telecom and Media: TV
• Small business, SOHO, services, outsourcing of tasks, JINI
millions of PC’s connected
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The Network Economy
From functional-
to processes -
to units/networking -structure view
Products
Information
Out-tasking
N?
Network of small
companies and units
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Network impact : a new division of authority in the Network Economy?
End of distance and time: “transparency” leads to “glocal” subsidiarity:
• some isssues are discussed and decided
on much higher global levels
&
at the same time
• some issues are discussed and decided
on much lower local levels
EU : a network of interconnected city-states ?
The end of intermediary layers like nation-states?
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Telecom Infrastructure Model
USER
Program broadcasting
schedules
and producer
webpages
of content
Functional
CONTENT
PC with
browser,
Fax, TV set
Telephones
website/webhosting
Internet
Service
Providers
LAN's
PABX’s
Internet
Access
Providers
corporations
SMEs
houses
Private ground
Transmission licences
publishers
studios
Local city
telephony services
e-mail services
teletext
Mobile telephony
services
Helpdesk services
resellers
GSM services billing
Customer care
Telecommunication- & Computerapplications
GSM networks
Telephony Switches
Internet Routers/Hubs
Network operations
Dialtone
Helpdesk and monitor
IP dialtone
Network service prov.
Network operators
Networkmanagement
Networkbilling
Commercial
SWITCHING /ROUTING
value chains
microwave links Optic fiber networks
wireless
Leased Lines
Connection billing
satellite
Fault management links
TVcable
local loop = leased line!
TRANSMISSION
Regional
National
International
Geography
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The Playground
ICT functionality
computers
local
loop
CPE
BB
ISP’s
ISP
web
tfn
centr server
Company
Country wide
backbones
Int’l
Network
Services
lan,pabx
CATV
SME
Home
WLL
DNS
geography
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PDA’s
intelligent workstations
disk replication
store and forward platform
server
users
F
u
n
c
t
i
o
n
a
l
i
t
y
local dial in
CATVnet
packet radio
or city ISDN
switch
Clients
user interface
storage
Archives
ISP
PC
adm
application
Servers
Notes
EDI
novell
general
magic
video
Notes
Internet
(access)
Service
Provider
processing
info
services
EDI
Dial
demander
PPP
switching
transmission
IP,
Network
frame relay, ATM
LAN
cable TV, ISDN
Internet
sites
SOHO
small business home LAN
carrier services
large business
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4. Is there an upper bound for this bursty, self-similar traffic?
Bus Behaviour of millions of powerful computers :
400 Mb/s peak load for each PC
• Volume growth < 20 % average load on link !
• Growth inequalities: Zipf Law*): big junctions attract traffic
• Bursty, self similar traffic: fractal Mandelbrot *) rainfall
(diff from voice)
• The big pipes are in the periphery of the network
not in the backbones (diff from voice, TV)
Turn the multiplexers around for IP traffic??
Can TDM (ATM, SDH) scale up fast enough ???
IP/L (IP on Lambda) opt. Cross connects, DWDM
*) Benoit B. Mandelbrot; Fractals and Scaling in Finance -discontinuity, concentration,
risk- Springer Verlag 1997; ISBN 0-387-98363-5
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5. How can we approach the problems : & Combinations
The Staircase Model,
(weaving on many functional levels)
CPE
Workstation
Applications
public grounds
Servers, ISP services
Policy based switching
Information
Hard- disk
IP
PBX
Eth , HUB
(edge) Routing Frame Relay
Switched Gigabit Ethernet
Combinations of:
ATM
SDH / SONET
(GSM mobile)Workstations,
Opt. Xconn
JINI, LAN, Servers, PBX, Hub, IP, Frame Relay,
DWDM
Gigabit Ethernet switch, local Etherloop on unbundled UTP/coax,
WLL, ATM, SDH-c, DWDM, Optic X-Connect, optic fiber, plastic pipe.
Opt.Fiber
Pipe
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6. What next: parallelism
• Multiple networks (geographical weaving)
Tradeoff’s between avialabity and cost, processing and bandwidth
Shared connections : one bus <----- Fourier Butterflies---> totally meshed
Eyes and Lenses for our networked telescope !
Smart messages : photon trucks
Bandwidth hotels and server farms for smart knowledge workers!
©1998 [email protected]
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We wish you good connections
and positive Network Effects !!!
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Jaap van Till is one of the directors of the Stratix Consulting Group,
which specialises in helping to define corporate strategies in the face of
uncertainty and change. One of their recent projects is to define and
propose a gigabit/s speed, Internet-2 type, testbed for the Netherlands,
funded by the government. He is professor at the Delft University of
Technology for the Chair of Corporate Networks, on the subject
of defining large scale Internet- and intranet infrastructures. Jaap is
member of the Board of the Netherlands Chapter of the Internet
Society (ISOC.NL).
http://huizen.dds.nl/~vantill/
©1998 [email protected]