Download PA - Fluid Networking

Tribes and Alchemy
Evolution of the Real-Time-Challenged Internet
Guiding the future of networking by
understanding the history
P.Asprey Nov 2006
1950 Many Engineering Tribes
Telecom, Telemetry, Television, Datacom, Command
and Control, Power, Sound
What would the Internet look like if they
had smoked a peace pipe?
Who Said It?
•
•
“The idea is idiotic on the face of it…they have not the slightest
idea of the true problems involved.’”
“Cell phone voice quality has prepared the public for VoIP.”
•
“…our network has the fewest dropped calls!”
•
“Bell Labs engineers said ‘Packet switching won’t work.’”
•
“IP is so attractive as the packet infrastructure because …. software
applications running over IP do not have to be known by the
network…Note: To provide the proper prioritization on a congested
IP network, it must have some knowledge of the applications.”
Who Said It?
•
“The idea is idiotic on the face of it…they have not the slightest
idea of the true problems involved.’”
-Western Union re Bell Patent
•
“Cell phone voice quality has prepared the public for VoIP.”
-Dr. Treichler, VoIP Industry
•
“…our network has the fewest dropped calls!”
-Cingular advertising slogan
•
“Bell Labs engineers said ‘Packet switching won’t work.’”
-Roberts of ARPA IPTO
•
“IP is so attractive as the packet infrastructure because …. software
applications running over IP do not have to be known by the
network…Note: To provide the proper prioritization on a congested
IP network, it must have some knowledge of the applications.”
-Cisco white paper on real-time IP
Sowing the Seeds - Growing a Communications Network
1890 - 1930’s Hello? Hello? WWI, Aircraft, Wireless
Social and Political
Telecom
Teletype, Switchboards
Transmission of words
Transmission of sound
Character codes Baudot
Telegraphy
Store & Forward Messaging
Bell Telephone patent
4000 Telcos in 1902
Radio, TV
Western Union
AT&T Antitrust
QoS (Urgent Telegram)
Radio Shack
20 million phones
Talkies
Public Switched Telephone NW
NY World’s Fair
Television, Telegraphy
Sound transmission - real-time
Words transmission - non-real-time
FCC, IEC Standards
Era of Big Government Computers
1940-1960
• No high-level policy input from computer scientists
• Computing - a new animal
– Requires subtle mix of science, engineering
• Government agencies,military pay for research
– ONR, NBS, DOD, AEC, NASA…uncoordinated G-Jobs
– Funded corporations AND were their customers
– Government agencies also built their own
• Military-University-Complex swells
• By 1950 Government spending ~$20 million per year
Sowing the Seeds - Era of Government Computers
1940’s Great War, Computing Machines, Cold War
Social and Political
Radar
Manhattan Project/Los Alamos
US gets ‘The Bomb’
Soviets get ‘The Bomb’
Balance of Power
Military-University-Complex
Artificial Intelligence
MIT AI Lab
Computing
ENIAC
Whirlwind Computer
Stored Program
Primitive Transistors
Real-time Computing
30 Million Telephones
Fear! Money!
Baby Boomers
Basic Computing and
Transmission Technologies
Telecom
Traveling Wave Tube
Klystron, Magnetron
Microwave, FDM
Sowing the Seeds - Era of Government Computers
1950’s USA Good Guys, Domino Theory, Space Race
Social and Political
Military work is cool
ICBM Detection
USSR Sputnik
NASA, ARPA
Admiral Grace Hopper
Double Helix
Computing
Miniaturization
Cheap Transistors
Magnetic memory
Magnet disk storage
COBOL, FORTRAN
LISP, ALGOL
Telecom
Nationwide Dialing
Electronic Switching
Modems
Digital Multiplex T-1
50 Million Telephones
Stable Digital Hardware
Large, Expensive Computers
Compilers, Languages
Programming is Interesting
Growth - Commercialization of Computers
1960s Military Industrial Complex, Cool Scientists, Star Trek
Social and Political
Vietnam Anti-War Protests
Drug Culture,Genes, Memes
NASA - Fault Tolerance
NSF Computing Education
ARPA Visionaries
CompuServe sells timesharing
Kleinrock - Packet Switching
Theory
Mad scientist: Dr. No,
“Bond, James Bond.”
Computing
MULTICS, UNIX
High-speed Data/Fax
Integrated Circuits
IMP NW Interface
Redundancy
Dual Core Computing
Telecom
Dataphone modem
Telstar - Voice, TV
24 channel TDM
Digital switching
Digital signal processing
Digital image processing
90 Million Telephones
Critical research mass, Stable funding
ARPA Graduates
Timesharing,Business Computing
Golden Age of US Research Policy
1960-1970
• Eisenhower warning: rise of the ‘Military Industrial Complex’
• Scientists in high places - Eisenhower/JFK
– Stable funding, long-term projects, critical mass
• ARPA /IPTO (Information Processing Technology Office
– “under civilian control” - JFK
• Commercial applications.
– Banking, airline reservations
– Government still paying for internal/external R&D
• Telecom research - Telcos and Military Communications
1960’s Scientists in Charge
Creating The Vision and Funding the Research
• New ARPA IPTO - Information Processing Technology Office
– Crazy is OK: Mechanical elephant…1 crt, many computers
• ARPA Diversity: Psychologists and Engineers (no women)
Licklider - Man-Computer Symbiosis, Galactic Network
Sutherland - Computer graphics, Snake Robot
Taylor - Interactive Networks, 3 Terminals Problem
Roberts - Cooperative Networks
Baran - Secure Packetized Voice (Military)
• NSFNet backbone for research only
• Internet = NSFNet merged with Arpanet
Crosstalk? PSTN vs Packet Switching
Real-Time Digital Divide
• US already had an extensive communications
network experience
– Public switched telephone network (PSTN)
– Telemetry networks real-time, store-and-forward
– Data networks (Teletype) and Real-time networks (Voice, Radio,
Broadcast)
• Computer Scientists vs Telecom Engineers
– Different language, journals, conferences, terminology
• Telecom - improve quality, reliability of voice
NW
• Datacom engineers: Voice over IP seems to
Compares call
quality scores for
different service
providers
Colors represent
call quality “MOS”
(Mean Opinion
Score) rating
Most VoIP calls
currently have
unacceptable
quality rating
Explosion of VoIP traffic in last 9 months
Over 250 different VoIP providers
Decrease in average VoIP quality reported in last 3 months
Source:
Ellacoya Networks
Developing the Networks
1970’s Phone Phreaks, PC Revolution, Mad Computers
Social and Political
ARPA to DARPA
Xerox PARC (Taylor)
CS without EE degrees
Vinton Cerf, NCP
Wozniak’s blue box
Entrepreneurs
Jobs, Apple
Gates, Microsoft
HAL 9000
2001, A Space
Odyssey
Computing, Networking
UNIX, C
PASCAL, Smalltalk
Mini, Microcomputers
Dial-up NW, Packet Radio
TCP/IP
Standards, OSI Model,
Structured Programming
PCs, email, Basic Internet,
Demystification of VLSI
Telecom
International Dialing
Digital CO Switch
International Email
Telephone hacking
1970’s ARPA Gets a D
Defense - More Development, Less Research
Japanese computer threat (like the automobile)
US Semiconductors business drops: 75% to 40%
Government-supported research: ‘military relevance’
General skepticism about the role of science
DOD funding for mathematics, CS: two-decade low in
1975
1986 dropoff in engineering students (1 generation)
ARPA director - industrial background
Applications with short time horizons, months instead of years
Developing the Network - “Cyberspace”
1980’s Desktop Computing, Email, Divestiture, Netheads
Social and Political
Berlin Wall Falls
DOD in decline
Drives less R&D
NSF Adds $ to Research
Dialup Computer Services
(ruined Bell traffic models)
Netheads vs Bellheads
Powerful Desktops SUN
High-speed graphics,
Ethernet, VLSI
Computing
Electronic Bulletin Boards
TCP/IP
.gov .com .edu
SEMATECH public/private
40% homes w/computers
Accidental virus
Internet Worm
Telecom
Synchronous
Optical Network
TAT-8
ATM/Broadband
Integrated
Services Digital
Network
Huge Base of Users
Domain Names, Optical NW
Less basic research,
Anti-virus Software
Color Optics and Telecome Overinvestment
"Surfing the net" Vint Cerf
-
1990’s Color Optics, World Wide Web, Internet Bubble
Social and Political
http.//www.
WorldWideWeb browser
Berners-Lee, CERN
Scramble to support research
Secure Internet Transactions
E-commerce
VoIP (Toll bypass)
3rd Generation Partnership Project
Net traffic
Doubles every 6 month
Yahoo
Networking
#data users=#phone users
users WWW., browser,
Secure Socket Layer
Component software
JAVA, Color optics
VoIP standards, IP PBXs
Overbuilt Backbone hides QoS
Failings, Internet Bubble
Browsers
E-Commerce,
International email
Dot.Bombing and Recovering the Internet
2000’s Broadband, World Wide Wait, Spam, What QoS?
Social and Political
Internet
Peering VoIP difficulties
Cellular phones > wireline phones
‘The Google’
IP related revenue almost 3% GWP
Real Y2K problem is .com Bomb Carrier Grade VoIP not a reality
Social Networking
Flow routing ideas
Viruses and SPAM
IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS)
Next Generation Network (NGN)
Google is a Verb
IPv6 supports ATM, MPLS ideas
Problems with Real-Time IP,
Flow Routing
Peering, Digital Divide,
“Net Neutrality” concept
Network Neutrality Issues
Social Networking
Internet and Beyond
IP ”Two tin cans and a string” -anon
• TCP/IPv4! Phenomenal results after two
decades.
• Must re-examine technological assumptions
– cheap memory and processors
– huge bandwidth
• Must define next generation requirements
– crazy is OK…e.g. real-time applications work
• Must create the vision and fund the research
– US R&D flat at 2.6 percent of GDP for FOUR decades
– Federal share dropped from 2/3 to 1/4 of that
• Must NOT entrust research to corporations!
Alchemy! Innovation and Wealth
“The greatest legal creation of wealth in history”
-John Doerr, VC
• During the Cold War, millions of taxpayer dollars were
funneled into basic research in computing
• That Money emerged 40 years later as private wealth:
– Start-ups and IPO’s
– VCs and Investment Bankers
• Is that money being re-circulated into US basic
research?
– Lear Jets and vacation homes
– The “Trickle Out” theory
• Are innovators rewarded proportionately?
– More MBAs than Engineering degrees…
• Quality and reliability - casualties of this gold rush?
Real-time Voice/Video and Data Traffic
How Different Are They? Fundamentally.
Voice or Video Traffic
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Real-Time (human speech)
Continuous, full duplex
Tolerant of errors, lost packets
Intolerant of transmission delays
Lost packets can’t be retransmitted
Data Traffic
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Not Real-Time (email, web browsing)
Bursty
Intolerant of errors, lost packets must be resent
Tolerant of delays
Real-Time and IP
Layer 8:
The human eye, ear, brain
IP Philosophy - Let the higher-level protocols recover from lost packets
3 million years of evolution, no upgrades likely soon!
different protocols, different ISP delays, firewalls,..
ATM Forum:
“Just give us a bit”
- Netheads
IP by-passes QoS potential of ATM
Solving a different problem (data)
MPLS - ATM without cells
RTP - Real-Time Packet protocol
Sequence and relative timestamp
Anti-tromboning
Now you KNOW you have jitter!
Tragedy of the Commons
Net Neutrality: Every packet for itself!
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Peer-2-peer networks, Gamers, Spammers
Google rankings ploys
Myspace media madness,
Broadcast TV, Video on demand
Reliable User Data Protocol (RUDP)
Sends multiple copies of the same packet
Receiver discards redundant packets
ONE of the packets will make the journey!
Excellent solution for congestion: Add packets!
Strong Rise in Symmetric Peer-to-peer Applications
P2P
Symmetrical
Usage
•
More than ½ of all Internet traffic is peer-to-peer file sharing
– Soon “robotic” application traffic will dominate networks
•
P2P traffic is often symmetric (same amount upstream and downstream)
– thwarts traffic models and architectures
The Perfect Network
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Adjust network to user, not user to network
Self-healing when a node is ‘lost’
Self-provisioning when a node is ‘added’
Self-balancing network, minimal traffic
engineering!
• Don’t let me start unless I can finish
– Closed-loop applications - remote medicine
• Priorities based on USER choices
• Real-time traffic accomodated
• Secure, control spam, denial of service, etc.
Who? “The network is the computer.”
- Scott McNealy
Desktop computing has grown too complex, ugly
Backup, security, compatibility, cookies, browsers, etc.
Frustrated users abound…nerd market saturated
ASP (Google-type) Calendar - other ‘office’ applications?
Are Traditional carriers are the most logical providers of
the
‘new network’?
 Have done dialtone, videotone, and wirelesstone for a long
time
 More reliable, predictable, and credible than computer industry
 Ubiquity: Web-site tone, you-name-it tone to all of us
 Know how to bill millions of people for billions of
transactions
Now What?
• Fund science education (eliminate AP Classes?)
• Fund taxpayer-owned basic research
– Civilians in charge, NASA, IPTO as models
– No corporate secrecy or backwards compatibility requirements
– No company can bury or force direction on research
• Research is NOT a Manhattan Project. Start soon!!!
• Do we regulate ‘web-tone’ for the ‘Better Good’?
– E.g. AT&T Long-distance service subsidies for remote services
– Need reliable infrastructure, not peering problems
• Go beyond entrenched IP Players - create diverse sets of
network designers and dreamers (women too!)
…. Smoke a Peace Pipe and share some knowledge!
Final: Who said it?
The term "cyberspace" has past its sell-by date… The
problem is that everything has become an aspect of,
well, cyberspace… The internet feels less like an
alternate world that we 'go to' and more like just
another layer of life."
Final: Who said it?
The term "cyberspace" has past its sell-by date…
The problem is that everything has become an
aspect of, well, cyberspace… The internet feels
less like an alternate world that we 'go to' and
more like just another layer of life."
William Gibson
(Coined the term ‘cyberspace’ in his
1984 Neuromanser sci-fi novel.)