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Epidemiology
Uses of epidemiology
• Population or community health
assessment
• Individual decisions
• Completing the clinical picture
• Search for causes
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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Population or community
health assessment
– What are the actual and potential health
problems in the community?
– Where are they?
– Who is at risk?
– Which problems are declining over time?
– Which ones are increasing or have the
potential to increase?
– How do these patterns relate to the level and
distribution of services available?
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Individual decisions
– When they decide to stop smoking,
– take the stairs instead of the elevator,
– order a salad instead of a cheeseburger with
French fries,
– or choose one method of contraception
instead of another
– they may be influenced, consciously or
unconsciously, by epidemiologists’ assessment
of risk.
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Individual decisions (cont)
– Since World War II, epidemiologists have
provided information related to all those
decisions.
– In the 1950’s, epidemiologists documented
the increased risk of lung cancer among
smokers;
– in the 1960’s and 1970’s, epidemiologists
noted a variety of benefits and risks
associated with different methods of birth
control;
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Individual decisions
– These and hundreds of other epidemiologic
findings are directly relevant to the choices
that people make every day, choices that
affect their health over a lifetime
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Completing the clinical
picture
– When studying a disease outbreak,
epidemiologists depend on clinical physicians
and laboratory scientists for the proper
diagnosis of individual patients. But
epidemiologists also contribute to physicians’
understanding of the clinical picture and
natural history of disease
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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Completing the clinical picture
• For example, in late 1989 three patients in New
Mexico were diagnosed as having myalgias
(severe muscle pains in chest or abdomen) and
unexplained eosinophilia (an increase in the
number of one type of white blood cell). Their
physician could not identify the cause of their
symptoms, or put a name to the disorder.
Epidemiologists began looking for other cases
with similar symptoms, and within weeks had
found enough additional cases of eosinophiliamyalgia syndrome to describe the illness, its
complications, and its rate of mortality.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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Search for causes
– Much of epidemiologic research is devoted to a
search for causes, factors which influence one’s risk
of disease. Sometimes this is an academic pursuit,
but more often the goal is to identify a cause so that
appropriate public health action might be taken
– It has been said that epidemiology can never prove a
causal relationship between an exposure and a
disease. Nevertheless, epidemiology often provides
enough information to support effective action
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The Epidemiologic Approach
– Like a newspaper reporter, an epidemiologist
determines What, When, Where, Who, and
Why.
– However, the epidemiologist is more likely to
describe these concepts in slightly different
terms: case definition, time, place,
person, and causes.
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Case Definition
– is a set of standard criteria for deciding
whether a person has a particular disease or
other health-related condition.
– By using a standard case definition we
ensure that every case is diagnosed in the
same way, regardless of when or where it
occurred, or who identified it. We can then
compare the number of cases of the disease
that occurred in one time or place with the
number that occurred at another time or
another place
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– For example, with a standard case definition,
we can compare the number of cases of
hepatitis A that occurred in New York City in
1991 with the number that occurred there in
1990.
– Or we can compare the number of cases that
occurred in New York in 1991 with the number
that occurred in San Francisco in 1991.
– With a standard case definition, when we find
a difference in disease occurrence, we know it
is likely to be a real difference rather than the
result of differences in how cases were
diagnosed.
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– A case definition consists of clinical criteria
and, sometimes, limitations on time, place, and
person. The clinical criteria usually include
confirmatory laboratory tests, if available, or
combinations of symptoms (subjective
complaints), signs (objective physical
findings), and other findings.
– A case definition may have several sets of
criteria, depending on how certain the
diagnosis is. For example, during an outbreak
of measles, we might classify a person with a
fever and rash as having a suspect, probable,
or confirmed case of measles, depending on
what additional evidence of measles was
present.
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– . In other situations, we temporarily classify a case as
suspect or probable until laboratory results are
available. When we receive the laboratory report, we
then reclassify the case as either confirmed or “not a
case,” depending on the lab results. In the midst of a
large outbreak of a disease caused by a known agent,
we may permanently classify some cases as suspect
or probable, because it is unnecessary and wasteful
to run laboratory tests on every patient with a
consistent clinical picture and a history of exposure
(e.g., chickenpox) ).
– Case definitions should not rely on laboratory culture
results alone, since organisms are sometimes present
without causing disease.
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– Case definitions may also vary according to
the purpose for classifying the occurrences of
a disease.
– For such rare but potentially severe
communicable diseases, where it is important
to identify every possible case, health officials
use a sensitive, or “loose” case definition. On
the other hand, investigators of the causes of
a disease outbreak want to be certain that
any person included in the investigation really
had the disease
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– The investigator will prefer a specific or
“strict” case definition. For instance, in an
outbreak of Salmonella agona, the
investigators would be more likely to identify
the source of the infection if they included
only persons who were confirmed to have
been infected with that organism, rather than
including anyone with acute diarrhea, because
some persons may have had diarrhea from a
different cause. In this setting, the only
disadvantage of a strict case definition is an
underestimate of the total number of cases.
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Numbers and Rates
– A basic task of a health department is counting
cases in order to measure and describe
morbidity. When physicians diagnose a case of
a reportable disease they send a report of the
case to their local health department. These
reports are legally required to contain
information on time (when the case occurred),
place (where the patient lived), and person
(the age, race, and sex of the patient).
– The health department combines the reports
and summarizes the information by time, place,
and person.
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– From these summaries, the health
department determines the extent and
patterns of disease occurrence in the area,
and identifies clusters or outbreaks of disease.
A simple count of cases, however, does not
provide all the information a health
department needs. To compare the
occurrence of a disease at different locations
or during different times, a health department
converts the case counts into rates, which
relate the number of cases to the size of the
population where they occurred. Rates are
useful in many ways. With rates, the health
department can identify groups in the
community with an elevated risk of disease.
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• These so-called high-risk groups can be
further assessed and targeted for special
intervention; the groups can be studied to
identify risk factors that are related to
the occurrence of disease. Individuals can
use knowledge of these risk factors to
guide their decisions about behaviors that
influence health.
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Descriptive Epidemiology
– In descriptive epidemiology, we organize and
summarize data according to time, place, and person.
These three characteristics are sometimes called the
epidemiologic variables. Compiling and analyzing data
by time, place, and person is desirable for several reasons.
– First, the investigator becomes intimately familiar with the data
and with the extent of the public health problem being
investigated.
– Second, this provides a detailed description of the health of a
population that is easily communicated.
– Third, such analysis identifies the populations that are at
greatest risk of acquiring a particular disease. This information
provides important clues to the causes of the disease, and these
clues can be turned into testable hypotheses.
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Time
– Disease rates change over time. Some of these
changes occur regularly and can be predicted. For
example, the seasonal increase of influenza cases
with the onset of cold weather is a pattern that is
familiar to everyone. By knowing when flu outbreaks
will occur, health departments can time their flu shot
campaigns effectively. Other disease rates make
unpredictable changes. By examining events that
precede a disease rate increase or decrease, we may
identify causes and appropriate actions to control or
prevent further occurrence of the disease.
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– We usually show time data as a graph. We put the
number or rate of cases or deaths on the vertical, yaxis;
– we put the time periods along the horizontal, x-axis.
– We often indicate on a graph when events occurred
that we believe are related to the particular health
problem described in the graph.
– For example, we may indicate the period of exposure
or the date control measures were implemented.
Such a graph provides a simple visual depiction of the
relative size of a problem, its past trend and potential
future course, as well as how other events may have
affected the problem. Studying such a graph often
gives us insights into what may have caused the
problem.
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– Depending on what event we are describing,
we may be interested in a period of years or
decades, or we may limit the period to days,
weeks, or months when the number of cases
reported is greater than normal (an
epidemic period)
– For some conditions—for many chronic
diseases, for example—we are interested in
long-term changes in the number of cases or
rate of the condition. For other conditions, we
may find it more revealing to look at the
occurrence of the condition by season, month,
day of the week, or even time of day.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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– For a newly recognized problem, we need to assess
the occurrence of the problem over time in a variety
of ways until we discover the most appropriate and
revealing time period to use. Some of the common
types of time-related graphs are further described
below. Secular (long-term) trends. Graphing the
annual cases or rate of a disease over a period of
years shows long-term or secular trends in the
occurrence of the disease. We commonly use these
trends to suggest or predict the future incidence of a
disease. We also use them in some instances to
evaluate programs or policy decisions, or to suggest
what caused an increase or decrease in the
occurrence of a disease, particularly if the graph
indicates when related events took place
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– Seasonality. By graphing the occurrence of a
disease by week or month over the course of a year
or more we can show its seasonal pattern, if any.
Some diseases are known to have characteristic
seasonal distributions; for example, as mentioned
earlier, the number of reported cases of influenza
typically increases in winter. Seasonal patterns may
suggest hypotheses about how the infection is
transmitted, what behavioral factors increase risk,
and other possible contributors to the disease or
condition. The seasonal pattern of farm tractor
fatalities is shown in Figure 1.4.Epi_Course.pdf What
factors might contribute to its seasonal pattern?
Notice that Figure 1.5 shows the occurrence of a
disease event over the course of a year.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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– Day of week and time of day. Displaying data by
days of the week or time of day may also be
informative. Analysis at these shorter time periods is
especially important for conditions that are potentially
related to occupational or environmental exposures,
which may occur at regularly scheduled intervals.
– In Figure 1.6,Epi_Course.pdf farm tractor fatalities
are displayed by days of the week. Does this analysis
at shorter time periods suggest any hypothesis?
– In Figure 1.6 the number of farm tractor fatalities on
Sundays is about half the number on the other days.
We can only speculate why this is. One reasonable
hypothesis is that farmers spend fewer hours on their
tractors on Sundays than on the other days.
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Place
We describe a health event by place to gain insight
into the geographical extent of the problem. For
place, we may use place of residence, birthplace,
place of employment, school district, hospital unit,
etc., depending on which may be related to the
occurrence of the health event. Similarly, we may
use large or small geographic units: country, state,
county, census tract, street address, map
coordinates, or some other standard geographical
designation. Sometimes, we may find it useful to
analyze data according to place categories such as
urban or rural, domestic or foreign, and
institutional or non institutional.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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– Not all analyses by place will be equally informative.
By analyzing data by place, we can also get an idea
of where the agent that causes a disease normally
lives and multiplies, what may carry or transmit it,
and how it spreads. When we find that the
occurrence of a disease is associated with a place,
we can infer that factors that increase the risk of the
disease are present either in the persons living there
(host factors) or in the environment, or both. For
example, diseases that are passed from one person
to another spread more rapidly in urban areas than
in rural ones, mainly because the greater crowding in
urban areas provides more opportunities for
susceptible people to come into contact with
someone who is infected.
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– On the other hand, diseases that are
passed from animals to humans often
occur in greater numbers in rural and
suburban areas because people in those
areas are more likely to come into
contact with disease-carrying animals,
ticks, and the like. For example, perhaps
Lyme disease has become more common
because people have moved to wooded
areas where they come into contact with
infected deer ticks.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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– Although we can show data by place in a
table—does—it is often better to show it
pictorially in a map.
– On a map, we can use different
shadings, color, or line patterns to
indicate how a disease or health event
has different numbers or rates of
occurrence in different areas,
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PERSON
In descriptive epidemiology, when we
organize or analyze data by “person” there are
several person categories available to us
We may use inherent characteristics of people
(for example, age, race, sex), their acquired
characteristics (immune or marital status),
their activities (occupation, leisure activities,
use of medications/tobacco/drugs), or the
conditions under which they live
(socioeconomic status, access to medical
care).
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These categories determine to a large
degree who is at greatest risk of
experiencing some undesirable health
condition, such as becoming infected
with a particular disease organism.
We may show person data in either tables
or graphs.
In analyzing data by person, we often must try
a number of different person categories before
we find which are the most useful and
enlightening.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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– Age and sex are most critical; we almost
always analyze data according to these.
– Depending on what health event we are
studying, we may or may not break the data
down by the other attributes.
– Often we analyze data into more than one
category simultaneously; for example, we
may look at age and sex simultaneously to
see if the sexes differ in how they develop a
condition that increases with age—as they do
for heart disease.
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Age
– . Age is probably the single most important
“person” attribute, because almost every
health-related event or state varies with age.
A number of factors that also vary with age
are behind this association: susceptibility,
opportunity for exposure, latency or
incubation period of the disease, and
physiologic response (which affects, among
other things, disease development).
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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– When we analyze data by age, we try to use
age groups that are narrow enough to detect
any age-related patterns that may be present
in the data.
– In an initial breakdown by age, we commonly
use 5-year age intervals: 0 to 4 years, 5 to 9,
10 to 14, and so on.
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Larger intervals, such as 0 to 19 years, 20
to 39, etc., can conceal variations related
to age which we need to know to identify
the true population at risk.
Sometimes, even the commonly used 5year age groups can hide important
differences.
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SEX
– In general, males have higher rates of illness and
death than females do for a wide range of diseases.
For some diseases, this sex-related difference is
because of genetic, hormonal, anatomic, or other
inherent differences between the sexes.
– These inherent differences affect their susceptibility
or physiologic responses.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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For example, premenopausal women
have a lower risk of heart disease than
men of the same age. This difference is
attributed to higher estrogen levels in
women.
On the other hand, the sex-related
differences in the occurrence of many
diseases reflect differences in
opportunity or levels of exposure.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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– You may have attributed the higher level of
disorders in females to their higher level of
exposure to occupational activities that
require repetitive hand/wrist motion such as
typing or keyboard entry.
– With occupationally-related illness, we usually
find that sex differences reflect the number of
workers in those occupations. You may also
have attributed the higher level of disorders in
females to anatomical differences; perhaps
women’s wrists are more susceptible to
hand/wrist disorders.
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Ethnic and racial groups.
• In examining epidemiologic data, we are
•
interested in any group of people who
have lived together long enough to acquire
common characteristics, either biologically
or socially.
Several terms are commonly used to
identify such groups: race, nationality,
religion, or local reproductive or social
groups, such as tribes and other
geographically or socially isolated groups.
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Differences that we observe in
racial, ethnic, or other groups
may reflect differences in their
susceptibility or in their
exposure, or they may reflect
differences in other factors that
bear more directly on the risk of
disease, such as socioeconomic
status and access to health care.
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Socioeconomic status.
• Socioeconomic status is difficult to quantify. It is
•
made up of many variables such as occupation,
family income, educational achievement, living
conditions, and social standing. The variables
that are easiest to measure may not reflect the
overall concept.
Nevertheless, we commonly use occupation,
family income, and educational achievement,
while recognizing that these do not measure
socioeconomic status precisely. The frequency of
many adverse health conditions increases with
decreasing socioeconomic status.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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For example, tuberculosis is more
common among persons in lower
socioeconomic strata. Infant mortality
and time lost from work due to disability
are both associated with lower income.
These patterns may reflect more harmful
exposures, lower resistance, and less
access to health care.
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– Or they may in part reflect an interdependent
relationship which is impossible to untangle—
does low socioeconomic status contribute to
disability or does disability contribute to lower
socioeconomic status?
– Some adverse health conditions are more
frequent among persons of higher
socioeconomic status. These conditions
include breast cancer, Kawasaki syndrome,
and tennis elbow. Again, differences in
exposure account for at least some of the
differences in the frequency of these
conditions.
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Analytic Epidemiology
• As you have seen, with descriptive epidemiology
•
we can identify several characteristics of persons
with disease, and we may question whether
these features are really unusual, but descriptive
epidemiology does not answer that question.
Analytic epidemiology provides a way to find the
answer: the comparison group. Comparison
groups, which provide baseline data, are a key
feature of analytic epidemiology.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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– For example, in one outbreak of hepatitis A, it
was found that almost all of those infected
ate pastries from a particular bakery and
drank city water . However, without knowing
the habits of persons without hepatitis, it was
not possible to conclude that pastries, city
water, or both were risk factors for hepatitis.
Therefore, a comparison group of healthy
persons from the same population were
questioned. Among the comparison group
without hepatitis, almost all drank city water
but few were exposed to the pastries. This
finding indicated that pastries from the
particular bakery were a risk factor for
hepatitis A.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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– When—as in the example above—we find
that persons with a particular characteristic
are more likely than those without the
characteristic to develop a certain disease,
then the characteristic is said to be
associated with the disease.
– Identifying factors that are associated with
disease helps us identify populations at
increased risk of disease; we can then target
public health prevention and control activities.
Identifying risk factors also provides clues to
direct research activities into the causes of a
disease.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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– Thus, analytic epidemiology is concerned with
the search for causes and effects, or the why
and the how.
– We use analytic epidemiology to quantify the
association between exposures and outcomes
and to test hypotheses about causal
relationships. It is sometimes said that
epidemiology can never prove that a
particular exposure caused a particular
outcome. Epidemiology may, however,
provide sufficient evidence for us to take
appropriate control and prevention measures
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Epidemiologic studies fall into two
categories: experimental and
observational. In an experimental study,
we determine the exposure status for each
individual (clinical trial) or community
(community trial); we then follow the
individuals or communities to detect the
effects of the exposure. In an observational
study, which is more common, we simply
observe the exposure and outcome status
of each study participant. The study of
hepatitis A cases described above was an
observational study.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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– Two types of observational studies are the
cohort study and the case-control study.
A cohort study is similar in concept to the
experimental study. We categorize subjects
on the basis of their exposure and then
observe them to see if they develop the
health conditions we are studying. This differs
from an experimental study in that, in a
cohort study, we observe the exposure status
rather than determine it. After a period of
time, we compare the disease rate in the
exposed group with the disease rate in the
unexposed group.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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The length of follow-up varies, ranging from
a few days for acute diseases to several
decades for cancer, cardiovascular disease,
and other chronic diseases. The
Framingham study is a well-known cohort
study which has followed over 5,000
residents of Framingham, Massachusetts,
since the early 1950’s to establish the rates
and risk factors for heart disease
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– The case-control study—the other type of
observational study—is more common than
the cohort study. In a case-control study, we
enroll a group of people with disease (“cases”)
and a group without disease (“controls”) and
compare their patterns of previous exposures.
The study of hepatitis A described above is an
example of a case-control study. The key in a
case-control study is to identify an
appropriate control, or comparison, group,
because it provides our measure of the
expected amount of exposure.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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– In summary, the purpose of an
epidemiologic study is to quantify the
relationship between an exposure and a
health outcome.
– The hallmark of an epidemiologic study is
the presence of at least two groups, one of
which serves as a comparison group.
– In an experimental study, the investigator
determines the exposure for the study
subjects; in an observational study, the
subjects determine their own exposure.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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In an observational cohort study,
subjects first are enrolled on the basis of
their exposure, then are followed to
document occurrence of disease.
In an observational case-control study,
subjects first are enrolled according to
whether they have the disease or not,
then are questioned or tested to
determine their prior exposure.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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Causation
– we will define a cause of disease as a factor (characteristic, behavior,
event, etc.) that influences the occurrence of disease. An increase in
the factor leads to an increase in disease. Reduction in the factor leads
to a reduction in disease.
– If disease does not develop without the factor being present, then we
term the causative factor “necessary.”
– If the disease always results from the factor, then we term the
causative factor “sufficient.”
– below.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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Exposure to Mycobacterium tuberculosis
is necessary for tuberculosis to develop,
but it is not sufficient, because not
everyone infected develops disease.
On the other hand, exposure to a large
inoculum of rabies virus is a sufficient
cause in a susceptible person, since
clinical rabies and death will almost
inevitably occur.
A variety of models of disease causation
have been proposed. Models are
purposely simplified representations. In
this instance, the purpose of the model
is to facilitate the understanding of
nature, which is complex. Two of these
models are discussed
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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The Epidemiologic Triad:
Agent, Host, and Environment
– The epidemiologic triangle or triad is the
traditional model of infectious disease
causation. It has three components: an
external agent, a susceptible host, and an
environment that brings the host and agent
together. In this model, the environment
influences the agent, the host, and the route
of transmission of the agent from a source to
the host. shows two versions of this model in
diagram form.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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Agent factors
• Agent originally referred to an infectious
microorganism—virus, bacterium, parasite, or
other microbe. Generally, these agents must be
present for disease to occur. That is, they are
necessary but not always sufficient to cause
disease. As epidemiology has been applied to
noninfectious conditions, the concept of agent in
this model has been broadened to include
chemical and physical causes of disease.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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These include chemical contaminants, such as
the l-tryptophan contaminant responsible for
eosinophiliamyalgia syndrome, and physical
forces, such as repetitive mechanical forces
associated with carpal tunnel syndrome. This
model does not work well for some
noninfectious diseases, because it is not always
clear whether a particular factor should be
classified as an agent or as an environmental
factor.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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Host factors
• Host factors are intrinsic factors that influence an
individual’s exposure, susceptibility, or response
to a
causative agent. Age, race, sex,
socioeconomic status, and behaviors (smoking,
drug abuse, lifestyle, sexual practices and
contraception, eating habits) are just some of the
many host factors which affect a person’s
likelihood of exposure. Age, genetic composition,
nutritional and immunologic status, anatomic
structure, presence of disease or medications,
and psychological makeup are some of the host
factors which affect a person’s susceptibility and
response to an agent.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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Environmental factors
– Environmental factors are extrinsic
factors which affect the agent and the
opportunity for exposure. Generally,
environmental factors include physical
factors such as geology, climate, and
physical surroundings (e.g., a nursing
home, hospital); biologic factors such as
insects that transmit the agent; and
socioeconomic factors such as crowding,
sanitation, and the availability of health
services.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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Agent, host, and environmental
factors interrelate in a variety of
complex ways to produce disease in
humans. Their balance and
interactions are different for
different diseases. When we search
for causal relationships, we must
look at all three components and
analyze their interactions to find
practical and effective prevention
and control measures.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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Component Causes and Causal
Pies
– One of the newer models is based on the multi
factorial nature of causation in many diseases.
It illustrates the factors that act to cause
disease as pieces of a pie, the whole pie
making up the sufficient cause for a disease.
Notice that it shows that a disease may have
more than one sufficient cause, with each
sufficient cause being composed of several
factors. What is the letter of the necessary
cause shown for the hypothetical disease
illustrated by this model? The factors
represented by the pieces of the pie in this
model are called component causes.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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They include intrinsic host factors, as well as the
agent and the environmental factors of the agenthost-environment model. A single component cause
is rarely a sufficient cause by itself. For example,
even exposure to a highly infectious agent such as
measles virus does not invariably result in measles
disease—the host must be susceptible; other host
factors may also play a role.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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– At the other extreme, an agent which
rarely causes disease in healthy persons
may be pathogenic when other conditions
are right. Pneumocystis carinii is one such
organism, harmlessly colonizing some
healthy persons but causing potentially
lethal pneumonia in persons whose
immune systems have been weakened by
human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).
Presence of Pneumocystis carinii
organisms is therefore a necessary but not
sufficient cause of pneumocystis
pneumonia. In Figure 1.15 it would be
represented by component A in each “pie.”
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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If the three pies in the model represented all
the sufficient causes for a particular disease,
component A would be considered a
necessary cause for the disease, as P. carinii is
for pneumocystis pneumonia. Because
component A is included in all sufficient
causes for the disease, it would have to be
present, usually with various combinations of
other factors, for disease to occur. Infectious
agents are likely to be represented by
component A
As the model indicates, a particular disease
may result from a variety of different
sufficient causes. They are different
pathways leading to the same end.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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– For example, lung cancer may result from a
sufficient cause which includes smoking as a
component cause. Smoking is not a sufficient
cause by itself, however, since not all smokers
develop lung cancer. Neither is smoking a
necessary cause, because lung cancer may
occur in persons who never smoked. Thus
smoking may be represented by component B,
which is present in sufficient causes I and II
but not in III.
– Asbestos exposure may be represented by
component C, present in causes I and III but
not in II. Indeed, since lung cancer may
develop in persons with neither smoking or
asbestos exposure, there would have to be at
least one other sufficient cause pie that did not
include components B and C.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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– To apply this model, we do not have to
identify every component of a sufficient cause
before we can take preventive action. We can
prevent disease by blocking any single
component of a sufficient cause, at least
through that pathway. For example,
eliminating smoking (component B) would
prevent lung cancer from sufficient causes I
and II, although some lung cancer would still
occur through sufficient cause III.
EPIDEMIOLOGY/ HIKMET
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– In summary, the purpose of an epidemiologic study
is to quantify the relationship between an exposure
and a health outcome. The hallmark of an
epidemiologic study is the presence of at least two
groups, one of which serves as a comparison group.
In an experimental study, the investigator
determines the exposure for the study subjects; in
an observational study, the subjects determine
their own exposure. In an observational cohort
study, subjects first are enrolled on the basis of
their exposure, then are followed to document
occurrence of disease. In an observational casecontrol study, subjects first are enrolled according
to whether they have the disease or not, then are
questioned or tested to determine their prior
exposure.
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