Download Ppt slides

Introduction to Environmental Analysis
Environ 239
Instructor: Prof. W. S. Currie
GSIs: Nate Bosch, Michele Tobias
Skills Unit 11:
Modeling animal populations for wildlife
conservation
What we learned about the use of models to aid
in decision making
• Simulating multiple contrasting scenarios can be useful,
but it might it might take some exploration to find the
best set of scenarios
• Year-to-year randomness can alter the way a resource
needs to be managed.
• Key state variables (such as adult stock size, or number
of migrating smolts) need to be monitored each year so
the manager knows what the system is doing
• Simulation of one effect alone (e.g. dam construction)
does not tell you how that might interact with other
effects (e.g. development in the watershed)
What we learned about the use of models to aid
in decision making (2)
• Adjusting parameters to test scenarios seems arbitrary
unless you have some data on what the values are and
how they change under the different scenarios
• It seemed that just about every change we simulated
seemed to degrade the resource in some way
Pinyon-Juniper
Pinyon-Juniper forest, Utah
Class exercise: Equilibrium diagram
Class exercise: Graded Question on Reading
• How does Ford (in Chapter 16) develop a deer carrying
capacity that is independent of predation? How does he
incorporate this into the model as a control on the rate
of deer population growth?
Pinyon-Juniper forest, Utah
Pinyon pines
Grand Canyon,
south rim
Introduction to Environmental Analysis
Environ 239
Instructor: Prof. W. S. Currie
GSIs: Nate Bosch, Michele Tobias
Skills Unit 11:
Modeling animal populations for wildlife
conservation
Top Ten Funniest ratings from
www.ratemyprofessor.com
6. Teaches well, invites questions and then insults you for
20 minutes.
7. I learned how to hate a language I already know.
8. Bring a pillow.
9. She hates you already.
10. You can't cheat in her class because no one knows the
answers.
Top Ten Funniest ratings from
www.ratemyprofessor.com
1. His class was like milk, it was good for 2 weeks.
2. Three of my friends got A's in his class and my friends
are dumb.
3. Evil computer science teaching robot who crushes
humans for pleasure.
4. Instant amnesia walking into this class. I swear he
breathes sleeping gas.
5. Not only is the book a better teacher, it also has a
better personality.
Considering and incorporating spatial processes
in dynamic models
Probability of wolf presence (interpreted as habitat suitability)
Metapopulation: Local populations are sources or sinks
Turner, Gardner, O’Neill 2001
Rondonia, Brazil 1975 -- Landsat 2 MSS bands 4,2,1
Rondonia, Brazil 1986 -- Landsat 5 MSS bands 4,2,1
Rondonia, Brazil 1992 -- Landsat 4 TM bands 4,3,2
Forest edge
Abandoned pasture
Stratford & Robinson 2005, Frontiers in Ecology & Environment
Dale et al. model used in
Rhondonia:
Over time, loss of area
suitable as habitat for
species with (a) high gapcrossing or (b) low gapcrossing ability (as this
interacts with agricultural
practices)
Turner, Gardner, O’Neill 2001
Small group discussion
• Suppose you wanted to improve the Kaibab
Deer Herd population model by incorporating
spatial processes.
– What would you try to focus on in establishing
scenarios to simulate? (Example … three scenarios
that varied _____ )
– What data would you need to gather in order to
parameterize and/or test these simulated scenarios?
Scenario simulations: What students came up
with
• Deer stocks in core vs edge habitat: scenarios
regarding variability in edge / core ratio
• Varying patch size and patch separation, with forage
different in different patch sizes
Data to gather: What students came up with
• Patch size and distance
• Forage quality in patches
• Deer density and/or predator density in core vs edge
• Patch crossing ability of the deer
Small group discussion
• Can you list three similarities between dynamic
process modeling and statistical-correlational
approaches
• Can you list 2 things that are better, and 1
thing that is worse about dynamic modeling
versus statistical?