Download Presentation

Using Statistics to Fine Tune
Your Trading Plan
Risk Disclaimer
Trading in the off exchange retail foreign currency market is one of
the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets
and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The
possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds
and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford
to lose. Nothing in this presentation is a recommendation to buy or
sell currencies and Interbank FX is not liable for any loss or
damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit which may
arise directly or indirectly from the use of Interbank FX tools or
reliance on such information.
Which Currency Pair should I trade?
Am I trading the right currency pair?
Am I trading on the best day / best time of the day?
Are my goals reasonable?
What pairs work with my trading plan?
What is the statistical likelihood of another bullish bar?
What is the average statistical move of consecutive
bullish bars?
How Many Pips Does A Currency Pair Move Per Day?
PowerStats Basic
Ran on Oct 23, 2008 – Sample Size 6 months
Dark Gray = Average
Yellow = Area of high probability
How Many Pips Does A Currency Pair Move Per Day?
Does sample size matter??
PowerStats Advanced
Ran on Oct 23, 2008 – Sample Size 1 month
Dark Gray = Average
Yellow = Area of high probability
How Many Pips Does A Currency Pair Move Per Day of Week?
PowerStats Basic
Ran on Oct 23, 2008 – Sample Size 6 months
Dark Gray = Average
Yellow = Area of high probability
Another Example: The past month
750 pips
575 pips
425 pips
175 pips
PowerStats Basic
Ran on Oct 23, 2008 – Sample Size 1 month
Dark Gray = Average
Yellow = Area of high probability
What About Just One Day?
PowerStats Advanced
Ran on Oct 23, 2008 – Sample Size 6 months
Dark Gray = Average
Yellow = Area of high probability
How Many Pips Does A Currency Pair Move Per Hour of Day?
Time is GMT
8am GMT = 12:00pm in Dubai
PowerStats Basic
Ran on Oct 23, 2008 – Sample Size 6 months
Dark Gray = Average
Yellow = Area of high probability
What About Just 8:00 -9:00 GMT?
50 pips
Time is GMT
8am GMT = 12:00pm in Dubai
PowerStats Advanced
Ran on Oct 23, 2008 – Sample Size 1 month
Dark Gray = Average
Yellow = Area of high probability
What About Just 8:00 -9:00 GMT?
Does sample size matter??
50 Pips
Time is GMT
8am GMT = 12:00pm in Dubai
PowerStats Advanced
Ran on Sept 4, 2008 – Sample Size 3 month
Dark Gray = Average
Yellow = Area of high probability
Does one hour matter??
PowerStats Advanced – Trading Time Advisor
Ran on Oct 23, 2008
How Many Pips Does A Currency Pair Move for a given time
frame?
The EURUSD has
moved an average
of 40 pips (about)
per hour candle
over the last 6
month
PowerStats Advanced
Ran on Oct 23, 2008 – Sample Size 6 months
Dark Gray = Average
Yellow = Area of high probability
How Many Pips Does A Currency Pair Move for a given time
frame?
The area of high
probability is
between 15 and 63
PowerStats Advanced
Ran on Oct 23, 2008 – Sample Size 6 months
Dark Gray = Average
Yellow = Area of high probability
Expected Price Range
Current time
when stats
were created
PowerStats Advanced – Expected Price Range
Ran on Oct 23, 2008 – Sample Size 6 months
Dark Gray = Average
Yellow = Area of high probability
Average Consecutive Bullish Bars
PowerStats Advanced
Ran on Oct 23, 2008 – Sample Size 3 months – Candle = Daily
Dark Gray = Average
Yellow = Area of high probability
Average Consecutive Bullish Bars
Does candle time frame matter?
PowerStats Advanced
Ran on Oct 23, 2008 – Sample Size 3 months – Candle = 60 minute
Dark Gray = Average
Yellow = Area of high probability
Average Consecutive Bullish Bars by Symbol
PowerStats Advanced
Ran on Oct 23, 2008 – Sample Size 1 month
Dark Gray = Average
Yellow = Area of high probability
Probability of a Bearish Run
PowerStats Advanced
Ran on Oct 23, 2008 – Sample Size 1 month – candle size = 60 minutes
Dark Gray = Average
Yellow = Area of high probability
Thank You!
All of the tools we have reviewed here are FREE. Some require you to
have an account at IBFX but you won’t pay one penny to use any of
these tools.
PowerStats can be found at www.ibfx.com > Trading Tools > Power Stats
Basic or Advanced (Basic is free for all, Advanced is free for all IBFX
account holders)
We also have a trade Analyzer which is free for all IBFX account holders