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Microsoft Summer School, June 2010
Communications, Travel and
Social Networks since 1840:
A Study Using Agent-based Models
Supervisors: Nigel Gilbert, Richard Harper
Lynne Hamill
Centre for Research in Social Simulation
University of Surrey, UK
Outline
• Communication & travel
• Computational sociology
• Results
• Doing a PhD
2
Communication & travel
Overview
Key idea:
The more we communicate, the more we travel.
Approach:
• Person-to-person social communication
• Interaction of transport, communication &
social networks
• Three case studies
3
Communications & travel
1. 1840-1913: Mail & rail
100
90
Items of mail
Rail journeys
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
1860
1850
0
1840
No. per head per year
80
4
Communications & travel
2. 1951-2001: Phones & cars
100
90
Phones
Cars
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2001
1996
1991
1986
1981
1976
1971
1966
1961
1956
0
1951
Percent of households
80
5
Communications & travel
3. 1998-2007: Digital age
80
60
40
20
Fixed phone
Home computer
Internet
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
1998
Percent of households
100
Mobile phone
6
Communications & travel
General model: adoption
Adoption of a new mode of
communication depends on
• availability
• affordability
• skills
• social networks
7
Communications & travel
General model: use (1)
A new mode of communication affects
communication use in four ways:
• Social solidarity effect
• Communication substitution
• New practices
• Global village effect
8
Communications & travel
General model: use (2)
A new mode of communication affects
travel in three ways
• Travel substitution effect
• Travel complementarity effect
• Travel communications effect
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Computational sociology
Sociology
• Study of society
• Individuals & society
– the micro-macro problem
• Emergence & complexity
Strogatz (1994):
“…linear systems can be broken down into parts. Then
each part can be solved separately and finally
recombined to get the answer. But many things in
nature don’t act in this way. Whenever parts of a
system interfere, or cooperate, or compete, there are
nonlinear interactions going on. Most of everyday life
is nonlinear.”
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Computational sociology
Computational sociology
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Computational sociology
Agent-based models
Two components
• Environment:
– representing social space
• Agents: who interact with one another and
the environment
– representing individuals or households, with
characteristics that can change over time
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Computational sociology
Examples
100
% with internet
80
60
40
20
Model
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
Results
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Results
Key results
• Demand for communications and travel
generated from social networks.
• The importance of literacy
• Same model with different parameters can
reproduce adoption of mobiles and internet
• Internet differs from previous communication
modes because in enables new contacts
14
Results
Forecasts: 2021
• Texting:
– two-thirds higher compared to 2007
• Internet:
– Personal networks 15% larger
– 2½ times more online links than in 2007
15
Doing a PhD
Tips
• Stay focussed
• Take supervisors’ advice
• Don’t underestimate the time needed for
the ‘end game’
• Enjoy it!
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Thank you
Lynne Hamill
Centre for Research in Social Simulation
University of Surrey, UK
www.hamill.co.uk
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