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Edward Tsang Research • Business applications of Artificial Intelligence • Constraint satisfaction & optimization research – A branch of combinatorial optimisation – Applied to decision support and scheduling • Computational finance & economics – Computational intelligence + finance and economics – Applied to forecasting, bargaining, wind-tunnel testing • Enabling technology: heuristic search, evolutionary computation, inferences Edward Tsang (Copyright) 24 May 2017 Constraint Satisfaction & Optimization • Core technologies for transportation optimization – Guided Local Search was used in ILOG Solver’s vehicle routing package, Dispatcher. – BT: work force scheduling problem. – Honda: Multi-objective optimization Sponsors: BT, Honda Europe Computational Finance & Economics • Advanced computer science applied to finance – More than using spreadsheets or computerisation of accounting systems • Research at Essex: – Forecasting – Automated Bargaining (game theory) – Economic Wind-tunnel testing (market design) • Affiliated Centre: Centre for Computational Finance & Economic Agents (CCFEA) Sponsors: Sharescope, BT, OANDA Research Profile, Edward Tsang Business Applications of Artificial Intelligence Application Technology Finite Choices Decision Support, e.g. Assignment, Scheduling, Routing Constraint Satisfaction, Optimisation, Heuristic Search (Guided Local Search) Financial Forecasting Genetic Programming Automated Bargaining Genetic Programming Wind Tunnel Testing for designing markets and finding winning strategies Mathematical Modelling, Machine Learning, Experimental Design Portfolio Optimisation Multi-objectives Optimisation Supplementary Information Edward Tsang Current Activities – Edward Tsang Research Groups: Constraint Satisfaction & Optimisation Computational Finance Current Projects: • • • • • • • • • • EDDIE for Forecasting – towards more complex trading strategies Automated bargaining – finding Nash equilibrium strategies Artificial markets – conditions for stylised facts Credit cards market – designing bank strategies and Government policies Market-based scheduling – for BT work force scheduling Evolving middlemen strategies – for simple supply chains (BT sponsored) Chance discovery – data mining for scarce opportunities Port automated – vehicles scheduling Multi-objective optimisation – for Honda’s industrial design Portfolio optimisation by heuristic search Affiliations: Professor Director 1/8/2009 Background, Edward Tsang Education: • BSc in Business Administration, Chinese University of Hong Kong • MSc, PhD in Computer Science, University of Essex Selected external positions: • Editorialship, including: – IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation – Journal of Scheduling – CONSTRAINTS • • Chair, IEEE Computational Finance and Economics Technical Committee, 2004 & 2005 Co-chair, IEEE Taskforce on Portfolio Optimisation, 2006- Consultancy: Past employments: Commonwealth Secretariat The Constraint Satisfaction Problem Domains (Values available) Variables (Decisions) x1 x2 X X x3 x4 • • • • Constraints On assignments X X Constraint satisfaction is a decision problem Task: make decisions without violating constraints Sometimes you want the “best” solution Main techniques: constraint propagation + heuristics BT’s Workforce Scheduling BT has many jobs to be done in UK every day. It has to schedule a large number of teams to serve these jobs, subject to time, skill and other constraints. Saving of 0.5% could mean Millions of Pounds per year. Guided Local Search achieved the best results in one of BT’s challenge problems. Technicians Jobs Foundations of Constraint Satisfaction • First book to define the scope of constraint satisfaction – Published 1993 • Arguably the most rigorous book in constraint satisfaction • All major concepts defined in First Order Predicate Calculus – Precise, unambiguous – Little room for error