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Probability Distributions
OBJECTIVES
– Identify types of distribution.
– Describe the characteristics of the
normal probability distribution.
– Discuss the area beneath the normal
distribution curve
– Calculate approximations using the
normal curve
– Use the normal distribution tables.
Introduction
• A probability distribution lists, in some
form, all the possible outcomes of a
probability experiment and the probability
associated with each one.
• We have already looked at a few simple
examples. E.g. Amount spent on drink.
Examples
• Toss a coin in which the possible outcomes are `head’ or
`tail’. We have
P(head) = 0.5; P(tail) = 0.5.
• Time the departure of a train to the nearest second on
the platform clock. There will be a certain probability of it
departing on time and other probabilities of it departing
at later seconds.
• Measure the heights of everyone in this building. In this
case it would seem sensible for the outcomes to be
`intervals’ rather than actual values.
Types of Distribution
• There are two main types of distribution.
• These are discrete and continuous.
• Discrete distributions occur when the outcome can be
expressed in terms of variables having discrete values
e.g. 0, 1, 2, 3, …
E.g. How many 6’s when we throw a die a number of
times.
• Continuous distributions occur when variables are
continuous.
E.g. A persons height or weight.
There are two commonly occurring types of
discrete distribution
• Binomial – in which there are
only two possible outcomes to
each experiment and the
probability of obtaining one or
other outcome does not alter
with repetitions (trials) of the
experiment. Each is
independent.
• E.g. The probability of
obtaining a `club’ from a wellshuffled pack of cards. This
probability is ¼ = 0.25.
• The probability of a non club is
¾ = 0.75 (See next slide).
• Poisson – similar to the
binomial but applicable when
the probability of `success’ is
very small and there are a
large number of trials.
• It is used in problems where
events occur over space or
time.
• E.g. the number of goals
scored in a football match.
The probability distribution for a club being chosen
from a deck of cards
Note: 0.25 + 0.75 = 1
0.75
0.5
0.25
NOT CLUB
CLUB
Continuous Distributions
• The most important type of continuous
distribution is the Normal distribution.
• This will be the subject of the remaining
part of this lecture.
• Normal distributions occur commonly in
nature.
• E.g. Men’s heights or Women’s heights
are both normal distributions.
This is the graph of the standard normal
distribution.
The area beneath the curve is always equal to one.
Characteristics of a normal
distribution
• Probability is represented by Area under the curve.
• The distribution has a single mode.. The modal value
corresponds to the mean µ. For example men’s heights
are clustered around the average height;
• It is symmetric about the mean, the left and right halves
being mirror images of each other;
• It is bell shaped. The width depends on the standard
deviation, σ;
• It extends continuously over all values of x.
The area beneath the normal
distribution curve
Total area beneath any normal distribution
curve is always equal to one
0.5
0.5
x
Mean and standard deviation of a
Normal distribution
• The normal distribution depends on the
mean (µ) and standard deviation (σ) of the
population. The mean can be any value,
positive or negative.
• In slide 9
µ = 0 and σ = 1.
• This is called the standard Normal
distribution.
• The effect of varying σ is to alter the shape
of the curve. The smaller the value of σ the
narrower the curve.
• 68 % of the curve lies between one
standard deviation either side of the mean.
• 95 % lies between 2 standard deviations
either side of the mean;
• 99.7 % lies between 3 standard deviations
either side of the mean.
Area within one standard deviation of the
mean
68%
m-s
m
m+s
x
Area within two standard deviations of the
mean
95%
m-2s
m
m+2s
x
Sections of the area under the curve represent
probabilities of the variable lying within certain
ranges.
x
m
a
b
In normal distribution below:
• Mean (m) = 15
• Standard deviation (s) = 2
• µ+2 = 17
m - 2 = 13
Q
13
m
17
x
Area under curve between 13 and 17 is 68% of total area
So
P(13<x<17) = 0.68
So
P(15<x<17) = 0.34
Standardising
• The x value will not always be an exact number
of standard deviations away from the mean.
• We can calculate the number of standard
deviations which x lies away from the mean.
• Standardised value (z) can be obtained from
tables. (See handout.)
We calculate the number of standard
deviations between our given ‘x value’ and
the mean by the formula:
z = x -m
s
We then use normal distribution tables to
find the probability of our variable lying
between the given x value and the mean
Example.
A sample of till slips from a particular
supermarket show that the weekly amounts
spent by the 500 customers were approximately
normally distributed, with a mean of £20 and a
standard deviation of £4.
Find the expected number of shoppers who:
a) Spend between £20 and £28 per week?
s =4
Q
m=20 28
X = 20 (mean) is equivalent to
Z=0
x = 28
Z=x–m
s
= 28 - 20
4
= 8
4
= 2
2 d.p.
From table, when z = 2.00
Q = 0.4772
■ % spending over between £20 and £28 =
0.4772 x 100 =47.72
■ Number spending between £20 and £28 = 0.4772 x 500
= 23 shoppers
x
Normal Distribution Table
z
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.0000
0.0398
0.0793
0.1179
0.1554
0.0040
0.0438
0.0832
0.1217
0.1591,
0.0080
0.0478
0.0871
0.1255
0.1628
0.0120
0.0517
0.0910
0.1293
0.1664
0.0160
0.0557
0.0948
0.1331
0.1700
0.0199
0.0596
0.0987
0.1368
0.1736
0.0239
0.0636
0.1026
0.1406
0.1772
0.0279
0.0675
0.1064
0.1443
0.1808
0.0319
0.0714
0.1103
0.1480
0.1844
0.0359
0.0753
0.1141
0.1517
0.1879
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.1915
0.2257
0.2580
0.2881
0.3159
0.1950
0.2291
0.2611
0.2910
0.3186
0.1985
0.2324
0.2642
0.2939
0.3212
0.2019
0.2357
0.2673
0.2967
0.3238
0.2054
0.2389
0.2704
0.2995
0.3264
0.2088
0.2422
0.2734
0.3023
0.3289
0.2123
0.2454
0.2764
0.3051
0.3315
0.2157
0.2486
0.2794
0.3078
0.3340
0.2190
0.2517
0.2823
0.3106
0.3365
0.2224
0.2549
0.2852
0.3133
0.3389
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
0.3413
0.3643
0.3849
0.4032
0.4192
0.3438
0.3665
0.3869
0.4049
0.4207
0.3461
0.3686
0.3888
0.4066
0.4222
0.3485
0.3708
0.3907
0.4082
0.4236
0.3508
0.3729
0.3925
0.4099
0.4251
0.3531
0.3749
0.3944
0.4115
0.4265
0.3554
0.3770
0.3962
0.4131
0.4279
0.3577
0.3790
0.3980
0.4147
0.4292
0.3599
0.3810
0.3997
0.4162
0.4306
0.3621
0.3830
0.4015
0.4177
0.4319
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
0.4332
0.4452
0.4554
0.4641
0.4713
0.4772
0.4821
0.4345
0.4463
0.4564
0.4649
0.4719
0.4778
0.4826
0.4357
0.4474
0.4573
0.4656
0.4726
0.4783
0.4830
0.4370
0.4484
0.4582
0.4664
0.4732
0.4788
0.4834
0.4382
0.4495
0.4591
0.4671
0.4738
0.4793
0.4838
0.4394
0.4505
0.4599
0.4678
0.4744
0.4798
0.4842
0.4406
0.4515
0.4608
0.4686
0.4750
0.4803
0.4846
0.4418
0.4525
0.4616
0.4693
0.4756
0.4808
0.4850
0.4429
0.4535
0.4625
0.4699
0.4761
0.4812
0.4854
0.4441
0.4545
0.4633
0.4706
0.4767
0.4817
0.4857
b) spend more than £28 per week?
s =4
Q
x = 28
Z=x–m
s
m=20 28
= 28 - 20
4
= 8
4
From table, when z = 2.00
= 2
2 d.p.
Q = 0.4772 (as before)
■ P(x > 28) = 0.5 – Q = 0.5 - 0.4772 = 0.0228
■ % spending over £28 = 0.0228 x 100 = 2.28%
■ Number spending over £28 = 0.0228 x 500
= 11 shoppers
x
Distribution Symmetry
• Note that the distribution is only provided
for Z positive;
• However symmetry means that we also
know areas for Z negative;
The area under the curve between 0 and a
is the same as the area between 0 and –a.
c) spend between £15 and £28?
s=4
Q1 Q 2
x = 28
Q2 = 0.4772
( by part a)
15 m =20 28
x = 15
Z=x–m
s
= 15 - 20
4
= -5
4
From table, when z = -1.25
= -1.25
Q1 = 0.3944
■ P(15 < x < 28) = Q1 + Q2 = 0.4772 + 0.3944 = 0.8716
■ Number spending between £15 and £28 is 0.8716 x 500
= 435
x
Normal Distribution Table
z
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.0000
0.0398
0.0793
0.1179
0.1554
0.0040
0.0438
0.0832
0.1217
0.1591,
0.0080
0.0478
0.0871
0.1255
0.1628
0.0120
0.0517
0.0910
0.1293
0.1664
0.0160
0.0557
0.0948
0.1331
0.1700
0.0199
0.0596
0.0987
0.1368
0.1736
0.0239
0.0636
0.1026
0.1406
0.1772
0.0279
0.0675
0.1064
0.1443
0.1808
0.0319
0.0714
0.1103
0.1480
0.1844
0.0359
0.0753
0.1141
0.1517
0.1879
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.1915
0.2257
0.2580
0.2881
0.3159
0.1950
0.2291
0.2611
0.2910
0.3186
0.1985
0.2324
0.2642
0.2939
0.3212
0.2019
0.2357
0.2673
0.2967
0.3238
0.2054
0.2389
0.2704
0.2995
0.3264
0.2088
0.2422
0.2734
0.3023
0.3289
0.2123
0.2454
0.2764
0.3051
0.3315
0.2157
0.2486
0.2794
0.3078
0.3340
0.2190
0.2517
0.2823
0.3106
0.3365
0.2224
0.2549
0.2852
0.3133
0.3389
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
0.3413
0.3643
0.3849
0.4032
0.4192
0.3438
0.3665
0.3869
0.4049
0.4207
0.3461
0.3686
0.3888
0.4066
0.4222
0.3485
0.3708
0.3907
0.4082
0.4236
0.3508
0.3729
0.3925
0.4099
0.4251
0.3531
0.3749
0.3944
0.4115
0.4265
0.3554
0.3770
0.3962
0.4131
0.4279
0.3577
0.3790
0.3980
0.4147
0.4292
0.3599
0.3810
0.3997
0.4162
0.4306
0.3621
0.3830
0.4015
0.4177
0.4319
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
0.4332
0.4452
0.4554
0.4641
0.4713
0.4772
0.4821
0.4345
0.4463
0.4564
0.4649
0.4719
0.4778
0.4826
0.4357
0.4474
0.4573
0.4656
0.4726
0.4783
0.4830
0.4370
0.4484
0.4582
0.4664
0.4732
0.4788
0.4834
0.4382
0.4495
0.4591
0.4671
0.4738
0.4793
0.4838
0.4394
0.4505
0.4599
0.4678
0.4744
0.4798
0.4842
0.4406
0.4515
0.4608
0.4686
0.4750
0.4803
0.4846
0.4418
0.4525
0.4616
0.4693
0.4756
0.4808
0.4850
0.4429
0.4535
0.4625
0.4699
0.4761
0.4812
0.4854
0.4441
0.4545
0.4633
0.4706
0.4767
0.4817
0.4857
d) spend between £22 and £26?
s=4
Q1
Q2
x = 22
Z = x – m = 22 - 20
s
4
Q1 = 0.1915
= 2
4
= 0.50
m 22 26
x = 26
Z=x–m
s
= 26 - 20
4
=
Q2 = 0.4332
6
4
= 1.50
■ P(22 < x < 26) = Q2 - Q1
= 0.4332 - 0.1915 = 0.2417
120 people
x
Normal Distribution Table
z
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.0000
0.0398
0.0793
0.1179
0.1554
0.0040
0.0438
0.0832
0.1217
0.1591,
0.0080
0.0478
0.0871
0.1255
0.1628
0.0120
0.0517
0.0910
0.1293
0.1664
0.0160
0.0557
0.0948
0.1331
0.1700
0.0199
0.0596
0.0987
0.1368
0.1736
0.0239
0.0636
0.1026
0.1406
0.1772
0.0279
0.0675
0.1064
0.1443
0.1808
0.0319
0.0714
0.1103
0.1480
0.1844
0.0359
0.0753
0.1141
0.1517
0.1879
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.1915
0.2257
0.2580
0.2881
0.3159
0.1950
0.2291
0.2611
0.2910
0.3186
0.1985
0.2324
0.2642
0.2939
0.3212
0.2019
0.2357
0.2673
0.2967
0.3238
0.2054
0.2389
0.2704
0.2995
0.3264
0.2088
0.2422
0.2734
0.3023
0.3289
0.2123
0.2454
0.2764
0.3051
0.3315
0.2157
0.2486
0.2794
0.3078
0.3340
0.2190
0.2517
0.2823
0.3106
0.3365
0.2224
0.2549
0.2852
0.3133
0.3389
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
0.3413
0.3643
0.3849
0.4032
0.4192
0.3438
0.3665
0.3869
0.4049
0.4207
0.3461
0.3686
0.3888
0.4066
0.4222
0.3485
0.3708
0.3907
0.4082
0.4236
0.3508
0.3729
0.3925
0.4099
0.4251
0.3531
0.3749
0.3944
0.4115
0.4265
0.3554
0.3770
0.3962
0.4131
0.4279
0.3577
0.3790
0.3980
0.4147
0.4292
0.3599
0.3810
0.3997
0.4162
0.4306
0.3621
0.3830
0.4015
0.4177
0.4319
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
0.4332
0.4452
0.4554
0.4641
0.4713
0.4772
0.4821
0.4345
0.4463
0.4564
0.4649
0.4719
0.4778
0.4826
0.4357
0.4474
0.4573
0.4656
0.4726
0.4783
0.4830
0.4370
0.4484
0.4582
0.4664
0.4732
0.4788
0.4834
0.4382
0.4495
0.4591
0.4671
0.4738
0.4793
0.4838
0.4394
0.4505
0.4599
0.4678
0.4744
0.4798
0.4842
0.4406
0.4515
0.4608
0.4686
0.4750
0.4803
0.4846
0.4418
0.4525
0.4616
0.4693
0.4756
0.4808
0.4850
0.4429
0.4535
0.4625
0.4699
0.4761
0.4812
0.4854
0.4441
0.4545
0.4633
0.4706
0.4767
0.4817
0.4857
e) what is the value below which 70% of
customers spend?
Previous questions
x-value
z-value
Q value
Answer
prob.
%
Here given %
x-value
z-value
Q value
(Answer)
(%)
e) what is the value below which 70% of
customers spend?
20%
50%
4 d.p.
20% means Q = 0.2000
Q
m = 20 x?
Using normal table backwards, when Q = 0.2000
Taking nearest value:
Z=x–m
s
z = 0.52
0.52 = x - 20
4
4 x 0.52 = x – 20
2.08 = x – 20
2.08 + 20 = x
Value below which 70% spend is £22.08
s= 4
x
Normal Distribution Table
z
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.0000
0.0398
0.0793
0.1179
0.1554
0.0040
0.0438
0.0832
0.1217
0.1591,
0.0080
0.0478
0.0871
0.1255
0.1628
0.0120
0.0517
0.0910
0.1293
0.1664
0.0160
0.0557
0.0948
0.1331
0.1700
0.0199
0.0596
0.0987
0.1368
0.1736
0.0239
0.0636
0.1026
0.1406
0.1772
0.0279
0.0675
0.1064
0.1443
0.1808
0.0319
0.0714
0.1103
0.1480
0.1844
0.0359
0.0753
0.1141
0.1517
0.1879
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.1915
0.2257
0.2580
0.2881
0.3159
0.1950
0.2291
0.2611
0.2910
0.3186
0.1985
0.2324
0.2642
0.2939
0.3212
0.2019
0.2357
0.2673
0.2967
0.3238
0.2054
0.2389
0.2704
0.2995
0.3264
0.2088
0.2422
0.2734
0.3023
0.3289
0.2123
0.2454
0.2764
0.3051
0.3315
0.2157
0.2486
0.2794
0.3078
0.3340
0.2190
0.2517
0.2823
0.3106
0.3365
0.2224
0.2549
0.2852
0.3133
0.3389
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
0.3413
0.3643
0.3849
0.4032
0.4192
0.3438
0.3665
0.3869
0.4049
0.4207
0.3461
0.3686
0.3888
0.4066
0.4222
0.3485
0.3708
0.3907
0.4082
0.4236
0.3508
0.3729
0.3925
0.4099
0.4251
0.3531
0.3749
0.3944
0.4115
0.4265
0.3554
0.3770
0.3962
0.4131
0.4279
0.3577
0.3790
0.3980
0.4147
0.4292
0.3599
0.3810
0.3997
0.4162
0.4306
0.3621
0.3830
0.4015
0.4177
0.4319
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
0.4332
0.4452
0.4554
0.4641
0.4713
0.4772
0.4821
0.4345
0.4463
0.4564
0.4649
0.4719
0.4778
0.4826
0.4357
0.4474
0.4573
0.4656
0.4726
0.4783
0.4830
0.4370
0.4484
0.4582
0.4664
0.4732
0.4788
0.4834
0.4382
0.4495
0.4591
0.4671
0.4738
0.4793
0.4838
0.4394
0.4505
0.4599
0.4678
0.4744
0.4798
0.4842
0.4406
0.4515
0.4608
0.4686
0.4750
0.4803
0.4846
0.4418
0.4525
0.4616
0.4693
0.4756
0.4808
0.4850
0.4429
0.4535
0.4625
0.4699
0.4761
0.4812
0.4854
0.4441
0.4545
0.4633
0.4706
0.4767
0.4817
0.4857
Summary
• We have looked at different types of
distribution – discrete and continuous;
• We have concentrated on one type of
continuous distribution to analyse data
from Normal distributions.