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Lecture 4 The Normal Distribution Lecture Goals After completing this chapter, you should be able to: Find probabilities using a normal distribution table and apply the normal distribution to dental problems Discrete Probability Distributions • A discrete random variable is a variable that can assume only a countable number of values Many possible outcomes: – number of patients visiting a dental clinic per day – – number of TV’s in a household number of rings before the phone is answered Only two possible outcomes: – gender: male or female – – defective: yes or no spreads peanut butter first vs. spreads jelly first Continuous Probability Distributions • A continuous random variable is a variable that can assume any value on a continuum (can assume an uncountable number of values) – – – – thickness of an item time required to complete a task temperature of a solution height, in inches • These can potentially take on any value, depending only on the ability to measure accurately Probability Distributions Probability Distributions Discrete Probability Distributions Continuous Probability Distributions Binomial Normal Poisson Uniform Hypergeometric Exponential The Normal Distribution • ‘Bell Shaped’ • Symmetrical • Mean, Median and Mode are Equal Location is determined by the mean, μ Spread is determined by the standard deviation, σ The random variable has an infinite theoretical range: + to f(x) σ μ Mean = Median = Mode x Many Normal Distributions By varying the parameters μ and σ, we obtain different normal distributions The Normal Distribution Shape f(x) Changing μ shifts the distribution left or right. σ μ Changing σ increases or decreases the spread. x Finding Normal Probabilities Probability is the Probability is measured area under the curve! under the curve f(x) by the area P (a x b) a b x Probability as Area Under the Curve The total area under the curve is 1.0, and the curve is symmetric, so half is above the mean, half is below f(x) P( x μ) 0.5 0.5 P(μ x ) 0.5 0.5 μ P( x ) 1.0 x Empirical Rules What can we say about the distribution of values around the mean? There are some general rules: f(x) σ μ1σ σ μ μ ± 1σ encloses about 68% of x’s μ+1σ 68.26% x The Empirical Rule (continued) μ ± 2σ covers about 95% of x’s μ ± 3σ covers about 99.7% of x’s 2σ 3σ 2σ μ 95.44% x 3σ μ 99.72% x Importance of the Rule • If a value is about 2 or more standard deviations away from the mean in a normal distribution, then it is far from the mean • The chance that a value that far or farther away from the mean is highly unlikely, given that particular mean and standard deviation The Standard Normal Distribution • • • Also known as the “z” distribution Mean is defined to be 0 Standard Deviation is 1 f(z) 1 0 z Values above the mean have positive z-values, values below the mean have negative z-values The Standard Normal • Any normal distribution (with any mean and standard deviation combination) can be transformed into the standard normal distribution (z) • Need to transform x units into z units Translation to the Standard Normal Distribution Translate from x to the standard normal (the “z” distribution) by subtracting the mean of x and dividing by its standard deviation: x μ z σ Example If x is distributed normally with mean of 100 and standard deviation of 50, the z value for x = 250 is x μ 250 100 z 3.0 σ 50 This says that x = 250 is three standard deviations (3 increments of 50 units) above the mean of 100. Comparing x and z units μ = 100 σ = 50 100 0 250 3.0 x z Note that the distribution is the same, only the scale has changed. We can express the problem in original units (x) or in standardized units (z) The Standard Normal Table The Standard Normal table gives the probability from the mean (zero) up to a desired value for z .4772 Example: P(0 < z < 2.00) = .4772 0 2.00 z The Standard Normal Table (continued) The column gives the value of z to the second decimal point z The row shows the value of z to the first decimal point 0.00 0.01 0.02 … 0.1 0.2 . . . 2.0 .4772 P(0 < z < 2.00)2.0 = .4772 The value within the table gives the probability from z = 0 up to the desired z value General Procedure for Finding Probabilities To find P(a < x < b) when x is distributed normally: • Draw the normal curve for the problem in terms of x • Translate x-values to z-values • Use the Standard Normal Table Z Table example • Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0 and standard deviation 5.0. Find P(8 < x < 8.6) Calculate z-values: x μ 88 z 0 σ 5 x μ 8.6 8 z 0.12 σ 5 8 8.6 x 0 0.12 Z P(8 < x < 8.6) = P(0 < z < 0.12) Z Table example • (continued) Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0 and standard deviation 5.0. Find P(8 < x < 8.6) =8 =5 8 8.6 P(8 < x < 8.6) =0 =1 x 0 0.12 P(0 < z < 0.12) z Solution: Finding P(0 < z < 0.12) Standard Normal Probability Table (Portion) z .00 .01 P(8 < x < 8.6) = P(0 < z < 0.12) .02 .0478 0.0 .0000 .0040 .0080 0.1 .0398 .0438 .0478 0.2 .0793 .0832 .0871 Z 0.3 .1179 .1217 .1255 0.00 0.12 Finding Normal Probabilities • Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0 and standard deviation 5.0 • Now Find P(x < 8.6) Z 8.0 8.6 Finding Normal Probabilities (continued) • Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0 and standard deviation 5.0 • Now Find P(x < 8.6) P(x < 8.6) .0478 .5000 = P(z < 0.12) = P(z < 0) + P(0 < z < 0.12) = .5 + .0478 = .5478 Z 0.00 0.12 Upper Tail Probabilities • Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0 and standard deviation 5.0 • Now Find P(x > 8.6) Z 8.0 8.6 Upper Tail Probabilities (continued) • Now Find P(x > 8.6)… P(x > 8.6) = P(z > 0.12) = P(z > 0) - P(0 < z < 0.12) = .5 - .0478 = .4522 .0478 .5000 .50 - .0478 = .4522 Z Z 0 0 0.12 0.12 Lower Tail Probabilities • Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0 and standard deviation 5.0 • Now Find P(7.4 < x < 8) Z 8.0 7.4 Lower Tail Probabilities (continued) Now Find P(7.4 < x < 8)… The Normal distribution is symmetric, so we use the same table even if z-values are negative: .0478 P(7.4 < x < 8) = P(-0.12 < z < 0) Z = .0478 8.0 7.4 Normal Probabilities in Excel • We can use Excel to quickly generate probabilities for any normal distribution • We will find P(7.4 < x < 8) when x is normally distributed with mean 8 and standard deviation 5 Using Excel • Enter desired values in dialog box Here: X belong to Normal Dist. with Mean = 8 St.dv.= 5 Calculate : p(7.4< x < 8)= p(x < 8) - p(x<7.4) p(-.12< z < 0)= 0.5 – 0.452 = 0.048 Cumulative: False: prob. density function p(x = 7.4) = 0 True: Cumulative function p(x<7.4)= p(z<-0.12)= 0.452 p(x < 8)= p(z < 0) = 0. 5 Excel Output