Download Regional Changes

Regional Climate Projections
Primary Source:
IPCC WG-I Chapter 11 - Regional Climate Projections
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Continental Temperature Projections
B1 - A1B - A2 ranges at 2100
(Based on models’ ensemble averages)
Observed: Black
Decadal temperature anomalies
20C Simulated: Red envelope
Baseline: 1901-1950
21C Simulated: Orange envelope
Scenario: A1B
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Temperature Scaling: A2 vs. A1B
(2080-2099 minus 1980-1999; annual, ensemble average)
Global Average Ratio = 1.17: 1
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Temperature Scaling: B1 vs. A1B
(2080-2099 minus 1980-1999; annual, ensemble average)
Global Average Ratio = 0.69: 1
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Africa:
Temperature
changes
Observed: Black
20C Sim: Red
21C Sim: Orange
Anomalies from
1901-1950 ave.
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Africa: Geographic Changes
2080-2099
Minus
1980-1999
(A1B)
+10
-1
+50%
-50%
21
# models
with  > 0
0
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Africa: Water Balance Changes
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
# models with  > 0
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Africa:  Precipitation via Statistical Downscaling
2070-2099
Range:
[-80,+80]
mm/month
2080-2099
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Europe:
Temperature
changes
Observed: Black
20C Sim: Red
21C Sim: Orange
Anomalies from
1901-1950 ave.
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Europe: Geographic Changes
2080-2099
Minus
1980-1999
(A1B)
+10
-1
+50%
-50%
21
# models
with  > 0
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
0
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Europe: Water Balance Changes
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
# models with  > 0
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Recall Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
~ 0.5˚ (lat) x
~ 0.5˚ (lon)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
History (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 1)
Europe: RCM Changes, 2 GCMs
2080-2099 minus 1980-1999, A2 Scenario
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
PRUDENCE
1. address and reduce [resolution] deficiencies in
projections;
2. quantify confidence and
uncertainties in predictions of
future climate and its impacts
3. interpret results in relation to
European policies for adapting
to or mitigating climate change
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Uncertainties in Regional Climate Change Projections:
The PRUDENCE Strategy
Impacts
Assessment
RCMs
GCMs
Scenarios
A2
B2
HADAM3H
ECHAM5
ARPEGE
FVGCM
Hadley
Rossby
DMI
UCM
ETH
ICTP
MPI
GKSS
Storm Surge
Agriculture
Hydrology
Ecosystems
Health
Water Res.
Tourism
Droughts
Floods
(F. Giorgi, 2008)
Regional Daily Precipitation Changes
Ratio
Wet-day frequency
(2071-2100) :
(1961-1990)
Mean (average)
Intensity
90th Percentile
A2 Scenario
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Asia: Temperature Changes
Observed: Black
Anomalies from
20C Sim: Red
1901-1950 ave.
21C Sim: Orange
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Asia: Geographic Changes
2080-2099
Minus
1980-1999
(A1B)
+10
-1
+50%
-50%
21
# models
with  > 0
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
0
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Asia: Water Balance Changes
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
# models with  > 0
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Change:
Summer Rainy
Season Ending
Date
Unit: Pentad (5 days)
“+” = later
15 GCMs,
weighted by
model skill
% models with  > 0
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
North America: Temperature Changes
Observed: Black
Anomalies from
20C Sim: Red
1901-1950 ave.
21C Sim: Orange
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
North America: Geographic Changes
2080-2099
Minus
1980-1999
(A1B)
+10
-1
+50%
-50%
21
# models
with  > 0
0
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
North America: Water Balance Changes
+10
-1
+50%
-50%
21
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999
# models with  > 0
0
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Changes in March Snow Depth
Canadian
GCM  
Canadian
RCM
Increase
2041-2070
Minus
1961-1990
(A2 Scenario)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
South America:
Temperature Changes
Observed: Black
20C Sim: Red
21C Sim: Orange
Anomalies from
1901-1950 ave.
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
South America: Geographic Changes
2080-2099
Minus
1980-1999
(A1B)
+10
-1
+50%
-50%
21
# models
with  > 0
0
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
South America: Water Balance Changes
+10
-1
+50%
-50%
21
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999
# models with  > 0
0
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Australia:
Temperature
Changes
Observed: Black
20C Sim: Red
21C Sim: Orange
Anomalies from
1901-1950 ave.
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Australia: Geographic Changes
2080-2099
Minus
1980-1999
(A1B)
+10
-1
+50%
-50%
21
# models
with  > 0
0
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Australia: Water Balance Changes
+10
-1
+50%
-50%
21
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999
# models with  > 0
0
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Polar Regions:
Temperature
Changes
Observed: Black
20C Sim: Red
21C Sim: Orange
Anomalies from
1901-1950 ave.
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
GCM Range
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
25% - 75%
Annual Cycle of Arctic Area Temperature Change
Sea Ice
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Arctic T
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999
(A1B)
Temperature
decrease in
3 of 21 GCMs
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
P vs. T - North of 60˚N
2080-2099 minus 1980-1999
(A1B)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Antarctic T & P
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999
(A1B)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Oceanic Temperature Projections
(Small Islands)
Observed: Black
Decadal temperature anomalies
20C Simulated: Red envelope
Baseline: 1901-1950
21C Simulated: Orange envelope
Scenario: A1B
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Caribbean: Precipitation Changes
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Indian Ocean: Precipitation Changes
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Pacific: Precipitation Changes
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Summary
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)
Regional Climate Projections
END
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)
Regional Climate Change (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 11)