Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Future rice production in Madagascar Where and how much ? Robert Hijmans & Alice Laborte International Rice Research Institute Background • Madagascar’s population is largely rural, very poor & dependent on agriculture • Rice is the main crop and staple food & cassava is also important. • Madagascar is a net rice importer. Government aims to double rice production between 2005 and 2012 • Production (kg) = Area (ha) * Yield (kg / ha) • Area expansion (habitat loss?) or intensification (pollution?) 2 modeling approaches • Regression: Where would area expansion take place? • Simulation: Climate change effect on yield Where is rice grown ? BD50 IDFN1 Regression model Rice area as function of: a) b) c) d) biophysical factors socioeconomic factors biophysical + socioeconomic factors bio. + soc. factors (2 regions: W, CE) Biophysical variables Socio-economic variables Model Variable Unit Intercept 1a 17.039** b2 0.364** c 3 12.469** Elevation km -0.679** -0.490** Slope deg -0.055** -0.063** Slope – focal mean deg -0.147** -0.114** Sqr(Slope) deg2 0.005** 0.005** Rainfall m 0.757** 0.677** Mean temperature °C -1.255** -0.851** Sqr(Temperature) °C2 0.022** 0.013** Distance to roads km -0.121** -0.114** Distance to towns km -0.094** -0.091** Population density person km-2 0.009** 0.002** Population density – change % Income million francs -0.002** 1.458** 2.165** D2 0.09 0.11 0.16 Area under ROC 0.70 0.73 0.76 26,930 26,382 24,928 AIC **Significant at 0%, * 5% Model d Variable Unit Intercept Elevation km Sqr(Elevation) West AS, MA, TL Center-East AV, FI, TM 8.722** -14.417** -3.304** -4.306** 2.007** 1.295** Slope deg -0.071** Slope – focal mean deg -0.125** -0.150** Sqr(Slope) deg2 0.003** 0.005** Flow accumulation – focal mean -0.012** Rainfall m 1.817** Mean temperature °C -0.328** Sqr(Temperature) °C2 Distance to roads km -0.150** -0.125** Distance to towns km -0.097** -0.107** Population density person km-2 0.009** 0.002** Population density – change % -0.035** 0.011** Income million francs 2.393** -0.075** 5.139** D2 0.18 0.20 Area under ROC 0.78 0.79 **Significant at 0%, *1% Biophysical variables Socio-economic variables Biophysical & socioeconmic variables Two regions Biophysical variables Socio-economic variables Biophysical & socioeconmic variables Two regions Forest loss model Business as usual: Forest area reduced by 25% in 2032 50% by 2077. Rice growth simulation model Baseline Climate: 1960-1990 (CO2 = 340 ppm) Cultivar: IR72 Model: Oryza Pot. yld. (t / ha) January April July October < 2.5 2.5 - 5 5 - 7.5 7.5 - 10 > 10 November planting of IR64, irrigated 2080 A2a, Hadcm3 Current conditions < 2.5 2.5 - 5 5 - 7.5 7.5 - 10 > 10 IR64, rainfed Implications? Part of the climate change effects on yield potential can be easily dealt with (length of growing season) Current yields are very low; Need for intensification; opportunities are not much affected. Water supply, double cropping? Resilience to extreme events (flooding, drought) More rice in the central highlands? Or diversification to high value crops? • Intensification: – less pressure on the land; – more pollution, where would that be a threat? • Extensification: – Not necessarily in the forest areas – Rehabilitation of irrigation schemes – Need for alternative livelihoods