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Adaptation to Climate Change in Livestock sector of Mongolia Batima P., Shiirev-Adya., Bat B., Bayarbaatar L., Tserendash S. AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Contents Methodologies Long list Short list Analysis Discussions AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Methodologies expert judgment adaptation screening matrix simulation of animal behavior economic analysis of intensive farm development adaptation decision matrix AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Expert judgment Long list Pasture and feed Livestock herding practice Livelihood Food supply of big cities Research on climate change AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Adaptation screening matrix Pasture and feed:19 Livestock herding practice: 15 Livelihood: 14 Food supply of big cities: 3 Research on climate change: 2 AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Adaptation screening matrix Criteria Opportunity Priority Effectiveness Impact on environment Cost Barrier AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Adaptation screening matrix* Priority Develop intensive dairy farming High High High Develop intensive farming for meat High High Develop intensive farming other than livestock High Establish climate change monitoring Develop climatic criteria for dzud and drough Adaptation options Food supply Impact on Effective- Environness ment Target of Opportunity Cost Barrier Low High Medium High Low High Medium High High Medium High Medium High High High None Medium None High High High None Medium None CC AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Short list Pasture and livestock herding management Assessment of the pasture carrying capacity at soum level, Ecological Classification of pasture for livestock herding, Pasture classification by season Develop management concepts for Livestock herding by socio-economic regions, Develop management system for animal productivity improvement Extension of grazing time Feed Preparation of supplementary feed: plant and non-plant Encourage to reserve irrigated hay area, Encourage to reserve irrigated pasture, Livelihood Develop alternative income source Awareness raising and education at all level Food supply Develop intensive dairy farm near to big cities, Develop intensive farm for meat production near to big cities, AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Pasture capacity AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Pasture Seasonal Camping AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Pasture Seasonal Camping H- autumn camping, X-spring camping, 3-Summer camping, Q- winter camping, movement direction AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Socio-Economic regions AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Simulation of animal behavior vs. Supplementary feed Table 1.Ewe weight changes in increased (10,20,30%) pasture peak biomass (HADCM3,) Changes of peak biomass,% Ecosystem Impact results 10 20 30 2020 Forest steppe -0.31 -0.17 -0.09 -0.02 Steppe -0.28 -0.10 -0.01 0.18 High mountains -0.03 -0.06 0.02 0.12 Gobi -0.11 0.05 0.15 0.22 2050 Forest steppe -0.78 -0.48 -0.32 -0.08 Steppe -0.46 -0.37 -0.23 0.02 High mountains -0.34 -0.28 -0.12 0.06 Gobi -0.51 -0.26 0.05 0.18 2080 Forest steppe -2.38 -1.41 -1.04 -0.61 Steppe -1.99 -1.42 -1.00 -0.70 High mountains -1.89 -1.89 -0.76 -0.50 Gobi -1.28 -1.61 -0.88 -0.18 AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Supplementary feed Forest steppe Steppe High mountain Gobi-Desert 2020 1.2 1.8 0.8 0 2050 1.6 1.8 1.2 0 2080 2050 2.1 2.4 1.5 0.4 Forest steppe Steppe High mountain Gobi-Desert 2020 3 3.3 1.9 0 2050 3.4 4.2 2.3 0 2050 2080 3.6 4.6 2.8 2.1 AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Preparation of Traditional supplementary feed Traditionally: hand prepared feed Plant Non-plant Have prepared hand out on Plant Non-plant AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Intensive farming Agro-climate Soil Landscape Vegetation Climate (max, min and average tº, soil moisture…) Economic parameters Expenditure Income……. 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0 25 50 75 100 125 -5000 AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Discussions Three level workshop: Local workshop Workshop at scientific community Workshop at Ministerial level Present at Permanent Committee for Food and Agriculture of the Parliament AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Local workshop AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Current adaptation practice Current adaptation practice At herder’s level Output of the workshops Were very effective in terms of Improving the understanding of climate change at local level and disseminate the research information Discussing the proposed adaptation options at local level and get feedback from local community Almost all the adaptation option that was prepared by the expert team have been accepted by the local experts as well as herders Adaptive capacity 3.50 2.50 1.50 0.50 -0.50 -1.50 -2.50 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Adaptive capacity (Socio-economic adaptive capacity) Policy Institutional Technical Financial Resource Infrastructure Score National 3 2 2 2 2 2 13 Eastern 3 1 2 1 3 2 12 Central 3 1 2 1 1 3 11 Khangain-mountain Western 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 10 8 AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Institutional Framework Ministry of Food and Agriculture Academy of science 2 Agencies 2 Departments Institute of livestock NAMHEM Livestock Pasture plants Ministry for Nature and Environment 7 Departments IMH Monitoring • institutions are there • no linkage AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Adaptation decision matrix Adaptation measures Criteria: Socio-economic Criteria Weight Prioritize AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Some measures • IMH: predictions • Long term prediction for winter: OctoberMarch • Prediction of pasture resources • Prediction on pasture capacity • Prediction of ewe weight for November-April AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004 Thank you for your attention!