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Adaptation to
Climate Change in
Livestock sector of
Mongolia
Batima P., Shiirev-Adya., Bat B., Bayarbaatar L., Tserendash S.
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Contents
 Methodologies
 Long list
 Short list
 Analysis
 Discussions
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Methodologies
 expert judgment
 adaptation screening matrix
 simulation of animal behavior
 economic analysis of intensive farm
development
 adaptation decision matrix
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Expert judgment
 Long list
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Pasture and feed
Livestock herding practice
Livelihood
Food supply of big cities
Research on climate change
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Adaptation screening matrix
 Pasture and feed:19
 Livestock herding practice: 15
 Livelihood: 14
 Food supply of big cities: 3
 Research on climate change: 2
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Adaptation screening matrix
 Criteria
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Opportunity
Priority
Effectiveness
Impact on environment
Cost
Barrier
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Adaptation screening matrix*
Priority
Develop intensive dairy
farming
High
High
High
Develop intensive farming for
meat
High
High
Develop intensive farming
other than livestock
High
Establish climate change
monitoring
Develop climatic criteria for
dzud and drough
Adaptation options
Food
supply
Impact on
Effective- Environness
ment
Target of
Opportunity
Cost
Barrier
Low
High
Medium
High
Low
High
Medium
High
High
Medium
High
Medium
High
High
High
None
Medium
None
High
High
High
None
Medium
None
CC
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Short list
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Pasture and livestock herding management
 Assessment of the pasture carrying capacity at soum level,
 Ecological Classification of pasture for livestock herding,
 Pasture classification by season
 Develop management concepts for Livestock herding by socio-economic
regions,
 Develop management system for animal productivity improvement
 Extension of grazing time
Feed
 Preparation of supplementary feed: plant and non-plant
 Encourage to reserve irrigated hay area,
 Encourage to reserve irrigated pasture,
Livelihood
 Develop alternative income source
 Awareness raising and education at all level
Food supply
 Develop intensive dairy farm near to big cities,
 Develop intensive farm for meat production near to big cities,
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Pasture capacity
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Pasture Seasonal Camping
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Pasture Seasonal Camping
H- autumn camping,
X-spring camping,
3-Summer camping,
Q- winter camping,
 movement direction
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Socio-Economic regions
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Simulation of animal behavior vs.
Supplementary feed
Table 1.Ewe weight changes in increased (10,20,30%) pasture peak biomass
(HADCM3,)
Changes of peak biomass,%
Ecosystem
Impact results
10
20
30
2020
Forest steppe
-0.31
-0.17
-0.09
-0.02
Steppe
-0.28
-0.10
-0.01
0.18
High mountains
-0.03
-0.06
0.02
0.12
Gobi
-0.11
0.05
0.15
0.22
2050
Forest steppe
-0.78
-0.48
-0.32
-0.08
Steppe
-0.46
-0.37
-0.23
0.02
High mountains
-0.34
-0.28
-0.12
0.06
Gobi
-0.51
-0.26
0.05
0.18
2080
Forest steppe
-2.38
-1.41
-1.04
-0.61
Steppe
-1.99
-1.42
-1.00
-0.70
High mountains
-1.89
-1.89
-0.76
-0.50
Gobi
-1.28
-1.61
-0.88
-0.18
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Supplementary feed
Forest steppe
Steppe
High mountain
Gobi-Desert
2020
1.2
1.8
0.8
0
2050
1.6
1.8
1.2
0
2080
2050
2.1
2.4
1.5
0.4
Forest steppe
Steppe
High mountain
Gobi-Desert
2020
3
3.3
1.9
0
2050
3.4
4.2
2.3
0
2050
2080
3.6
4.6
2.8
2.1
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Preparation of Traditional supplementary feed
 Traditionally: hand prepared feed
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Plant
Non-plant
 Have prepared hand out on
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Plant
Non-plant
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Intensive farming
 Agro-climate
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Soil
Landscape
Vegetation
Climate (max, min and average tº, soil moisture…)
 Economic parameters
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Expenditure
Income…….
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5000
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Discussions
 Three level workshop:
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Local workshop
Workshop at scientific community
Workshop at Ministerial level
 Present at Permanent Committee for Food and
Agriculture of the Parliament
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Local workshop
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Current adaptation
practice
Current adaptation
practice
At herder’s level
Output of the workshops
 Were very effective in terms of
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
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Improving the understanding of climate change at
local level and disseminate the research
information
Discussing the proposed adaptation options at
local level and get feedback from local community
Almost all the adaptation option that was prepared
by the expert team have been accepted by the
local experts as well as herders
Adaptive capacity
3.50
2.50
1.50
0.50
-0.50
-1.50
-2.50
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Adaptive capacity
(Socio-economic adaptive capacity)
Policy
Institutional
Technical
Financial
Resource
Infrastructure
Score
National
3
2
2
2
2
2
13
Eastern
3
1
2
1
3
2
12
Central
3
1
2
1
1
3
11
Khangain-mountain Western
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
10
8
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Institutional Framework
Ministry of Food and
Agriculture
Academy of science
2 Agencies
2 Departments
Institute of livestock
NAMHEM
Livestock
Pasture plants
Ministry for Nature
and Environment
7 Departments
IMH
Monitoring
• institutions are there
• no linkage
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Adaptation decision matrix
 Adaptation measures
 Criteria: Socio-economic Criteria
 Weight
 Prioritize
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Some measures
• IMH: predictions
• Long term prediction for winter: OctoberMarch
• Prediction of pasture resources
• Prediction on pasture capacity
• Prediction of ewe weight for November-April
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Thank you for your attention!