Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
This presentation is by Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing Richard Warrick to Climate Coastal Impacts and Adaptation Wei Ye Change (AIACC Project SIS09) Peter Kouwenhoven Conducted by: Global Change Institute (IGCI), (PACE), Pacific CentreInternational for Sustainable Environment and Development The University Waikato The University of theofSouth Pacific Hamilton In collaboration with: New Zealand International Global Change Institute (IGCI), The University of Waikato and the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) (AIACC Project SIS09) Three Linked Objectives 1. New tools for integrated assessment 2. Case study applications 3. Capacity building Focus on: Local scale assessment Coastal settlements Risks from variability and extremes This presentation will: Describe new integrated assessment modelling developments Illustrate with case study from Rarotonga, Cook Islands Build upon the foundation of integrated assessment models already developed For example, the existing FijiCLIM model: M e a n A n n u a l P r e c ip ita tio n 2070 Suitability for Taro Growing Limitation of existing models: • impacts, not adaptation • biophysical impacts, not socio-economic • average climate, not risk of extremes Eight New Model Developments 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Capacity for multi-scale modelling Local sea-level rise scenario generator Human dimensions components Coastal flooding impact models Transient simulation Scenarios of future development and land use change Adaptation analysis Economic tools 1. Capacity for multi-scale modelling Rarotonga, Cook Islands Avatiu area 1. Capacity for multi-scale modelling Open framework system 2. Local sea-level rise scenario generator Combine global, regional and local sea-level components Global Sea-level projections Suva tide gauge data 2. Local sea-level rise scenario generator Normalised pattern IPCC compatible 1.50 3. Human dimensions components 3. Human dimensions components Avatiu area, Rarotonga, Cook Islands 4. Coastal flooding impact models Climate Change Sea Level Rise Tropical cyclone intensity Atmospheric Pressure Mean sea-level + Barometric set-up + Max. Wind Wind set-up + Return Period Significant Wave Height Wave set-up + Wave run-up Run-up elevation Acceptable risk levels Adaptation Measures & Design 4. Coastal flooding impact models 50-YEAR EVENT Current climate Study area 2050 Study area 5. Transient simulation “TIME-SLICE” versus “TRANSIENT” • Physical impacts • Damage assessments • Spatial analysis • Economic analysis • Visual • Adaptation effects • Evolving climate and land use 6. Scenarios of development and land use Model rules and settings Fractional change (per year) of land use type 7. Adaptation analysis Simulated individually or in combination 8. Economic tools • Dollar damages • Basic Benefit-Cost Analysis Classify and survey structures by: Flood height% damage function type (e.g. residential) age (e.g. <10 yrs) construction (e.g. woodframe) Indicative $ value x = $ Damage = $10k Damage For example… Single family, new, woodframe % damage 100 x 50 0 1 2 3 4 Water height (m) $20k 8. Economic tools SIMULATE IMPACTS … • • • • • Over study area Over distribution of flood events With and without climate change With and without adaptation In time steps (“transient” mode) as climate changes as land use changes • Aggregate and discount to present value 8. Economic tools With climate change With adaptation Without climate change 8. Economic tools DAMAGES ADAPTATION BENEFITS & COSTS Advantages of New Developments • Scale that is appropriate for adaptation • Focuses on risk from climate extremes • Can separate climate change effects from natural variability • Basis for estimating the incremental costs and benefits of adaptation CAUTION! Models are not enough…