Download PPT 10 MB - global change SysTem for Analysis, Research

This presentation is by
Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing
Richard
Warrick to Climate
Coastal Impacts
and Adaptation
Wei Ye
Change
(AIACC
Project SIS09)
Peter
Kouwenhoven
Conducted by:
Global
Change Institute
(IGCI), (PACE),
Pacific CentreInternational
for Sustainable
Environment
and Development
The University
Waikato
The University
of theofSouth
Pacific
Hamilton
In collaboration
with:
New Zealand
International Global Change Institute (IGCI), The University of Waikato
and the
South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)
(AIACC Project SIS09)
Three Linked Objectives
1. New tools for integrated assessment
2. Case study applications
3. Capacity building
Focus on:
Local scale assessment
Coastal settlements
Risks from variability and extremes
This presentation will:
Describe new integrated assessment modelling
developments
Illustrate with case study from Rarotonga, Cook
Islands
Build upon the foundation of integrated
assessment models already developed
For example, the existing FijiCLIM model:
M e a n A n n u a l P r e c ip ita tio n
2070
Suitability for Taro Growing
Limitation of existing models:
• impacts, not adaptation
• biophysical impacts, not socio-economic
• average climate, not risk of extremes
Eight New Model Developments
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Capacity for multi-scale modelling
Local sea-level rise scenario generator
Human dimensions components
Coastal flooding impact models
Transient simulation
Scenarios of future development and land use change
Adaptation analysis
Economic tools
1. Capacity for multi-scale modelling
Rarotonga, Cook Islands
Avatiu area
1. Capacity for multi-scale modelling
Open framework system
2. Local sea-level rise scenario generator
Combine global, regional and local sea-level components
Global Sea-level
projections
Suva tide gauge data
2. Local sea-level rise scenario generator
Normalised pattern
IPCC compatible
1.50
3. Human dimensions components
3. Human dimensions components
Avatiu area, Rarotonga, Cook Islands
4. Coastal flooding impact models
Climate
Change
Sea Level Rise
Tropical cyclone
intensity
Atmospheric
Pressure
Mean sea-level
+
Barometric set-up
+
Max. Wind
Wind set-up
+
Return Period
Significant
Wave Height
Wave set-up
+
Wave run-up
Run-up elevation
Acceptable risk
levels
Adaptation
Measures & Design
4. Coastal flooding impact models
50-YEAR EVENT
Current climate
Study area
2050
Study area
5. Transient simulation
“TIME-SLICE”
versus
“TRANSIENT”
• Physical impacts
• Damage assessments
• Spatial analysis
• Economic analysis
• Visual
• Adaptation effects
• Evolving climate and
land use
6. Scenarios of development and land use
Model rules and settings
Fractional change (per year) of land use type
7. Adaptation analysis
Simulated individually or in combination
8. Economic tools
• Dollar damages
• Basic Benefit-Cost Analysis
Classify and survey
structures by:
Flood height% damage
function
type (e.g. residential)
age (e.g. <10 yrs)
construction (e.g. woodframe)
Indicative
$ value
x
=
$ Damage
=
$10k Damage
For example…
Single family,
new, woodframe
% damage
100
x
50
0
1
2
3
4
Water height (m)
$20k
8. Economic tools
SIMULATE IMPACTS …
•
•
•
•
•
Over study area
Over distribution of flood events
With and without climate change
With and without adaptation
In time steps (“transient” mode)
as climate changes
as land use changes
• Aggregate and discount to present value
8. Economic tools
With climate change
With
adaptation
Without climate
change
8. Economic tools
DAMAGES
ADAPTATION
BENEFITS &
COSTS
Advantages of New Developments
• Scale that is appropriate for adaptation
• Focuses on risk from climate extremes
• Can separate climate change effects from natural variability
• Basis for estimating the incremental costs and benefits of adaptation
CAUTION! Models are not enough…