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Integrated Assessment and IPCC: Links between climate change and sub-global environmental issues presentation at Task Force Integrated Assessment Modelling, Brussels, 14-16 May 2001 Rob Swart Head TSU IPCC Working Group III INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) The IPCC Process • IPCC was established in 1988 as an intergovernmental, integrated assessment process by UNEP and WMO • Scientists in interdisciplinary writing teams are responsible for the substance of the assessments •Governments determine the report outline, they review the 2nd draft, and approve the Summary for Policymakers line by line • Work from 3 Working Groups (climate system, impacts/ adaptation, mitigation) is integrated in a Synthesis Report ( 5 year cycle) • Main client: UNFCCC/SBSTA • More information: http://www.ipcc.ch INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Climate change and other environmental issues in IPCC • The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) includes scenarios for SO2, NOx, VOCs, CO in addition to all GHGs • The Third Assessment Report evaluates the climatic changes (WG1) and impacts (WG2) associated with these scenarios • The Third Assessment Report (WG3) notes that integration of climate change policies with other socio-economic and environmental policies (“co-benefits”) can make policies more effective • A WRI/RFF/OECD/IPCC Workhop on Ancillary Benefits was organized in 2000; proceedings available from OECD • A Special Report on Climate Change and Sustainable Development has been proposed which would explicitly address synergies and tradeoffs between the various issues INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Figure 1.1a: An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change Climate System •Temperature rise •Sea level rise •Precipitation change Climate change impacts Feedbacks Environmental impacts Enhanced greenhouse effect Atmospheric Concentrations •Carbon dioxide •Methane •Nitrous oxide •Aerosols Human & Natural Systems •Floods and droughts •Biodiversity •Animal and plant health Anthropogenic emissions Non-climate change stresses Socio-Economic Development Paths •Main drivers are population, energy,economic growth, technology and land use Linking Climate Change to Sustainable Development Adaptation, Vulnerability Mitigation Climate Change Emissions Alternative Development Pathways: Economy, Equity, Technologies, Population, Lifestyles, and Institutions, Policy Environmental Social Sustainable Development Economic Special Report on Emission Scenarios • Revision of 1992 reference scenarios (IS92) • Based on 1994 IPCC evaluation • IPCC 1996 request for new reference scenarios, no additional climate initiatives • Based on literature review, development of storylines, quantification with 6 models, open process, and 2 IPCC reviews • Published 2000 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) The SRES worlds SRES Scenarios Economic A2 A1 Global Regional B1 B2 Environmental y og er g y -use) ol nd Te c h n A ic ulture (La En Econom y gr P o pu lat io n Dr iving Forces INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS FOR 6 SCENARIO GROUPS (a) A1 40 (b) A2 40 30 A1F1 30 20 20 A2 A1B 10 10 A1T 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 0 1990 2090 (c) B1 40 2010 2030 30 20 20 10 10 2070 2090 (d) B2 40 30 2050 B2 B1 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) 2070 2090 GLOBAL ENERGY CO2 SCENARIOS AND DATABASE Total database range Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions SRES Scenarios and Database Range (index, 1990 = 1) 10 8 Maximum in Database 6 B2 A1B 2 1990 range 0 1900 B1 A1T Minimum in Database 1950 2000 2050 2100 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Intervention 4 IS92 range A1F1 A2 A1 AIM A1 ASF A1 IMAGE 180 A1 MESSAGE A1 MINICAM A1C AIM A1C MESSAGE A1C MINICAM A1G AIM 150 A1G MESSAGE Global sulfur dioxide emissions (MtS/yr) A1G MINICAM A1V1 MINICAM A1V2 MINICAM A1T AIM A1T MESSAGE 120 A2 ASF A2 AIM A2G IMAGE A2 MESSAGE A2 MINICAM 90 A2-A1 MINICAM B1 IMAGE B1 AIM B1 ASF B1 MESSAGE B1 MINICAM 60 B1T MESSAGE B1HIGH MESSAGE B1HIGH MINICAM B2 MESSAGE B2 AIM B2 ASF 30 B2 IMAGE B2 MINICAM B2HIGH MINICAM 5% 25% 0 1990 mean median 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 75% Fig Figure 5-12: Standardized global SO2 emissions for SRES scenarios, classified into four scenario families (each denoted by a different color code – A1, red; A2, brown; B1, green; B2, blue). Marker scenarios are shown with thick lines without ticks, globally harmonized scenarios with thin lines, and non-harmonized scenarios with thin, dotted lines (see Table 4-3). Black lines show percentiles, means, and medians for SRES scenarios. 95% 200 Range of sulfur-control scenarios in the database Maximum in database 150 IS92 100 1990 range A2 A1 B2 50 Sulfur - control Global Sulfur Dioxide Emissions (MtS) Total database range Sulfur - non-control, and non-classified scenarios 250 B1 Minimum in database 0 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 2100 Figure TS-10: Global anthropogenic SO2 emissions (MtS) – historical development from 1930 to 1990 and (standardized) in the SRES scenarios. The dashed colored time-paths depict individual SRES scenarios, the solid colored lines the four marker scenarios, the solid thin curves the six IS92 scenarios, the shaded areas the range of 81 scenarios from the literature, the gray shaded area the sulfur-control and the blue shaded area the range of sulfur-non-control scenarios or “non-classified” scenarios from the literature that exceeds the range of sulfur control scenarios. The colored vertical bars indicate the range of the SRES scenario families in 2100. Database source: Grübler (1998). A1 AIM A1 ASF 160 A1 IMAGE A1 MESSAGE A1C AIM A1C MESSAGE Global nitrogen oxides emissions (MtN/yr) A1G AIM A1G MESSAGE A1T AIM 120 A1T MESSAGE A2 ASF A2 AIM A2G IMAGE A2 MESSAGE B1 IMAGE 80 B1 AIM B1 ASF B1 MESSAGE B1T MESSAGE B1HIGH MESSAGE B2 MESSAGE 40 B2 AIM B2 ASF B2 IMAGE 5% 25% mean 0 1990 median 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 75% 95% Figure 5-9: Standardized global NOx emissions in SRES scenarios, classified into four scenario families (each denoted by a different color code – A1, red; A2, brown; B1, green; B2, blue). Marker scenarios are shown with thick lines without ticks, globally harmonized scenarios with thin lines, and non-harmonized scenarios with thin, dotted lines (see Table 4-3). Black lines show percentiles, means, and medians for SRES scenarios. The IPCC WG III TAR in one view • Technologies are available today to keep climate change impacts limited in the long term and stop the growth of global GHG emissions in the short term • The costs of implementing the Kyoto Protocol can be kept low, provided implementation is done efficiently and longterm costs can be kept relatively low if optimum timing is chosen • The real problem of controlling emissions is to overcome the many political, economic, social and behavioural barriers to implementing mitigation options • There is a strong link between sustainable development and climate change mitigation: look for synergies and avoid trade-offs INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Findings SRES/TAR related to acidifying compounds and ozone precursors • In most SRES scenarios, after an initial increase, sulfur emissions are assumed to decrease worldwide after a few decades, due to concerted policy action • This is one of the main reasons that in the TAR the projected climate effects (temperature, sea level) exceed those in earlier IPCC reports • GHG mitigation can have very important ancillary benefits for regional and local air pollution, and vice versa • More detailed analysis at the regional level is needed, especially for future emissions of NOx and other ozone precursors, and options for abatement synergy INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Excerpts from SPM IPCC WG3 • “Some mitigation actions may yield extensive benefits in areas outside of climate change: for example, they may reduce health problems; increase employment; reduce negative environmental impacts (like air pollution); protect and enhance forests, soils and watersheds; reduce those subsidies and taxes which enhance greenhouse gas emissions; and induce technological change and diffusion, contributing to wider goals of sustainable development. Similarly, development paths that meet sustainable development objectives may result in lower levels of greenhouse gas emissions.” • “The effectiveness of climate change mitigation can be enhanced when climate policies are integrated with the non-climate objectives of national and sectorial policy development and be turned into broad transition strategies to achieve the long-term social and technological changes required by both sustainable development and climate change mitigation. Just as climate policies can yield ancillary benefits that improve well being, non-climate policies may produce climate benefits.” INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) A1 AIM Global non-methane volatile organic compounds emissions (Mt/yr) A1 ASF 600 A1 IMAGE A1 MESSAGE A1C AIM A1C MESSAGE A1G AIM A1G MESSAGE A1T AIM A1T MESSAGE A2 ASF 400 A2 AIM A2G IMAGE A2 MESSAGE B1 IMAGE B1 AIM B1 ASF B1 MESSAGE B1T MESSAGE 200 B1HIGH MESSAGE B2 MESSAGE B2 AIM B2 ASF B2 IMAGE 5% 25% mean 0 1990 median 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 75% 95% Figure 5-10: Standardized global emissions of NMVOCs for SRES scenarios, classified into four scenario families (each denoted by a different color code – A1, red; A2, brown; B1, green; B2, blue). Marker scenarios are shown with thick lines without ticks, globally harmonized scenarios with thin lines, and non-harmonized scenarios with thin, dotted lines (see Table 4-3). Black lines show percentiles, means, and medians for SRES scenarios. A1 AIM A1 ASF 4000 A1 IMAGE A1 MESSAGE A1C AIM Global carbon monoxide emissions (MtCO/yr) A1C MESSAGE A1G AIM A1G MESSAGE A1T AIM 3000 A1T MESSAGE A2 ASF A2 AIM A2G IMAGE A2 MESSAGE B1 IMAGE 2000 B1 AIM B1 ASF B1 MESSAGE B1T MESSAGE B1HIGH MESSAGE B2 MESSAGE 1000 B2 AIM B2 ASF B2 IMAGE 5% 25% mean 0 1990 median 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 75% 95% Figure 5-11: Standardized global emissions of CO for SRES scenarios, classified into four scenario families (each denoted by a different color code – A1, red; A2, brown; B1, green; B2, blue). Marker scenarios are shown with thick lines without ticks, globally harmonized scenarios with thin lines, and non-harmonized scenarios with thin, dotted lines (see Table 4-3). Black lines show percentiles, means, and medians for SRES scenarios.