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SOCIETAL ADAPTATION TO A BADLY
DAMAGED BIOSPHERE
John Cairns, Jr.
University Distinguished Professor of Environmental Biology
Emeritus
Department of Biological Sciences
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Blacksburg, Virginia 24061, U.S.A.
October 2010
MOTHER NATURE DOES NOT
DO BAILOUTS.
Glenn Prickett
Conservation International
HUMANKIND’S PLAN  ECONOMIC GROWTH 
IS DAMAGING THE BIOSPHERE. A DETAILED PLAN IS
NEEDED TO REDUCE RISKS TO HUMAN HEALTH AND
THE ENVIRONMENT.
 The human economy is based on resources obtained from the
biosphere, but the list of US national priorities does not
acknowledge this fact.
 Humankind’s lifestyle, coupled with nearly 7 billion people, is
simply not sustainable.
 Damage to the present biospheric life support system is
evident, and, if it continues even for another decade, one or
more tipping points probably will be passed, followed by
irreversible climate or ecological changes.
THE MOST POWERFUL FORCES ON EARTH
ARE THE UNIVERSAL LAWS OF PHYSICS,
CHEMISTRY, AND BIOLOGY.
Ignoring or violating the universal laws of physics, chemistry, and
biology will result in severe consequences for both individuals
and nations.
Conforming to these universal laws must be humankind’s top
priority, not economic growth, war, or ideologies.
If some nations refuse to take these universal laws seriously,
Homo sapiens will have an increased mortality and might well
become extinct.
If humankind cannot follow these universal laws, it will have to
adapt to many new conditions, some that are predictable and
some that are not.
THE EVENTS IN THE BIOSPHERE ARE
PRIMARILY NONLINEAR AND WILL BE
DRAMATICALLY MORE RAPID THAN MOST
PEOPLE EXPECT.
 If humankind is going to adapt successfully, it must learn to think
and plan in terms of exponential change.
 Early warning monitoring systems to detect the onset of exponential
change must be developed in various components of the biosphere.
 The early warning systems must have the capability of identifying
false positive and false negative signals.
 The information from the monitoring systems must be responded to
expeditiously and not blocked politically or ideologically.
HUMANKIND’S PRIMARY GOAL SHOULD BE
SAVING THE BIOSPHERE, WHICH PROVIDES
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE TO HOMO SAPIENS.
 As resources per capita decrease, conflict will increase 
staying within the biospheric carrying capacity for the human
population is a superb way to diminish conflict.
 Only a small percentage of the species (approximately 1-2%)
that have ever lived on Earth are now alive.
 Survival of the fittest has protected life through five major
extinctions, but such adaptation is very hard on individual
species.
IRONICALLY, BLOCKING ACTION ON SCIENTIFIC
EVIDENCE IN THE UNITED STATES BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY HAS RESULTED IN AN ERA OF HIGH
GLOBLAL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE.
 Unsustainable human practices have ended “a ‘long summer’
of unusual (climatic) stability over the past 11,700 years.”1
 At present, humankind needs to return to “school” and learn
how the biosphere works before a point of no return is
passed.
 Recognition is long overdue that uncertainty is a fact of life in
politics, financial markets, sports, marriage, fishing, and the
future.
MANY IMPORTANT BIOSPHERIC CHANGES ARE
IRREVERSIBLE, BUT MANY PEOPLE ASSUME THE
CHANGES ARE REVERSIBLE.2
 “Hail Mary” geoengineering may lower Earth’s temperature but will
not restore the present biosphere to its predisturbance condition.
 If anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the
need to adapt rapidly will increase.
 Those individuals and nations that fail to adapt or adapt poorly will
almost certainly not survive.
IF ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL CHANGE IS NOT
GLOBALIZED, ESPECIALLY IN THE POPULOUS NATIONS,
CHANGES WILL WORSEN AND FUTURE ADAPTATIONS
WILL BE NEEDED.
 Perpetual growth on a finite planet is an oxymoronic goal.
 Economic growth requires resources, and humankind is
already using 150% of the resources the biosphere can
regenerate annually.
 The failure to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions or even to agree on a date and limiting numbers is
one of the major causes of climate change!
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HAS USHERED IN A
NEW ERA OF GROUP SELECTION FOR HOMO SAPIENS.
 Individual selection will continue to be operative for diseases,
drunken driving, nutrition, and so on, but the eight interactive
global crises3 affect humans as a species.
 With numerous hostilities, including wars, the present is
hardly a propitious time to make decisions as a global
community, but the global crises will not wait until conditions
improve.
FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION AND COMMERCE HAVE
NOT BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOCIAL GLOBALIZATION,
WHICH IS NEEDED TO COUNTERACT HARM TO THE
BIOSPHERE CAUSED BY ECONOMIC GROWTH.
 The stalled negotiations on decreasing anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions is positive proof that efforts are
lacking at the global level to diminish the risks of global
warming.
 Severe consequences are already happening, and time for
action is short.
 Runaway climate change is increasingly probable.
Acknowledgments: I am indebted to Darla Donald for transcribing
the handwritten first draft of this Power Point and for preparing it
for publication.
References
1Dumanoski,
D. 2009. The End of the Long Summer. Crown
Publishers, Random House, New York, NY.
2 Solomon,
S., G-K Plattner, R. Knutti, and P. Friedlingstein. 2009.
Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 106:17041709.
3Cairns,
J., Jr. 2010. Threats to the biosphere: eight interactive
global crises. Journal of Cosmology 8:1906-1915.