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08 Dec. 2004: 連絡会議 Chemistry and aerosol modeling in the Kyousei-2 ① CHASER-SPRINTARS のKISSMEへの導入 ② IPCC-AR4 実験について Kengo Sudo (FRCGC) K2-Integrated Earth System Modelling at the FRCGC Earth System Model: KISSME (being developed) radiation cloud distribution transport radiation Climate (CCSR/NIES AGCM 5.7) SST Aerosol (SPRI transport production heterogeneous reaction Chemistry (CHA deposition mineral Sea Salt Ocean (an NPZD-type model) DMS dust, OC CO2 NMHCs Land Surface (MATSIRO,Sim-CYCLE) Chemistry and aerosol simulations with CHASER and SPRINTARS -- as a part of the Kyousei integrated earth system modelling -- Climate impacts & interactions Ozone OC CH4 SO4-- BC clouds Chemical Reaction Soil Dust Liq. Chem. Sea Salt neutralization Surface Sulfate and OC are coupled with the chemistry component in CHASER Aerosol simulation in CHASER-SPRINTARS Sulfate (SO42- ) Chemical production by OH, O3, and H2O2 is calculated in the chemistry component of CHASER. (!) cloud pH is calculated as a function of ammonium (NH4+) , dust(Ca2+, etc), nitrates, and sulfate concentrations Nitrates (NO3-) Aerosol thermoequilibrium model implemented in CHASER calculates sulfate-nitrate-ammonium (SO42- NO3- -NH4+) system in aerosol-phase. Carbonaceous (EC/OC) Basically based on SPRINTARS [Takemura et al., 2000] , but for SOA production which is calculated in CHASER. (e.g., Terpenes + O3 SOA) Mineral dust Based on SPRINTARS [Takemura et al., 2002] Sea-Salt Based on SPRINtARS [Takemura et al., 2002] (!) calculated aerosols concentrations are reflected on the radiation (incl. J-values), cloud/precipitation, and heterogeneous reactions in the model. CHASER-SPRINTARS in KISSME ① 基本的に Multitasking に対応 (要チェック) ② 一部 fortran95 に書き換え && small bug fixing ③ SIMCYCLE, SIMCYCLE+SPRINTARS, SIMCYCLE+CHASER, SIMCYCLE+CHASER+SPRINTARS 全ての実験が可能。 ④ CHASER入り実験の際はトレーサーNo.などをConfigファイルで一括管 理。(LTCO2, LTO3, LTCH4, … ) ⑤ RESTART ファイルのトレーサー番号の管理: GAQ03 GAQCO2 ⑥ 地表面過程 deposition: MATUSIRO のR_ST 気孔抵抗を共用可能にした。 課題: 植物起源VOCs emission の on-line 計算 E (PAR,LAI,NPP) 海洋起源DMS emission の on-line 計算 CHASER-SPRINTARS in KISSME 残りの作業: ① 鉛直hybrid座標化。 ② 新放射コード導入: CHASER用に変更必要。 ③ ハロゲン(Cl,Br) 化学反応の追加。 ④ PSCs の導入。 Extention of KISSME/CHASER to the strato/meso-sphere ozone hole Ozone stratosphere Chemical Reaction gravity wave Climate impacts & interactions Br,Cl Ozone CH4 OC SO4-- BC clouds Chemical Reaction Soil Dust Liq. Chem. neutralization Surface Sea Salt ① CHASER-SPRINTARS のKISSMEへの導入 ② IPCC-AR4 実験について IPCC第4次報告書実験 化学-気候相互作用の解明・理解に向けて IPCC-AR4 (7-3): Atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate change. → 対流圏・成層圏オゾン化学と気候変動との相互作用理解に着手しよ うとしている。 (1) 気候→化学: 気候変動のインパクトの見積もりに重点。 (2) 化学→気候: 放射強制力の見積もりに留まる。 「実際にオゾンおよびエアロゾルが気候(温度場、風速場、降水場 など)にどう影響するか?」 っていう感じ?の研究が必要。 (+植生とのインタラクション) 次の次の報告書 (AR5) ? Chemistry and aerosol simulation with CHASER and SPRINTARS Radiative forcing from tropospheric ozone (direct) radiative forcing from elemental carbon IPCC-AR4 (7章)のための実験: intercomparison ① Experiment I : 過去(1850) → 現在(2000) → 将来(2100) 主眼=気候変動・成層圏オゾン変動の影響 ※ data submission = O3,NOx,CO,OH,….,T ; Photocomp ② Experiment II : 現在(2000) → 将来(2030) 主眼=前駆気体 emission 変化+気候変動 ※ より環境寄りの議論 ※ 将来に関してはこちらの方がもっともらしい・・・ ※ data submission = 〇一時間ごとの地表オゾン濃度(AOT40) 〇daily 対流圏カラムオゾン(放射強制力) 〇(10:30LTC)NO2カラム量(GOME 衛星比較) 〇酸性物質(S,N,O3)沈着分布 〇対流圏オゾンの全球収支 〇OH 濃度比較(メタン寿命) 〇各化学種濃度場 Scenarios: Experiment-1 Number climate Cl/Br Ozone precursors N2O CH4 priority models 1 pre-ind pre-ind pre-ind pre-ind pre-ind 1 GCM 1a present pre-ind present I: present present 2 CTM/GCM II: pre-ind pre-ind I: present pre-ind 2 CTM/GCM II: pre-ind pre-ind 1b present present pre-ind 1c present pre-ind pre-ind pre-ind pre-ind 1 CTM/GCM 2 present present present present present 1 CTM/GCM 3 future future future future future 1 GCM 3a present future present I: present present 3 CTM/GCM II: future future I: present future 3 CTM/GCM II: future future 1 CTM/GCM 3b present present future 3c present future future future future 3d future present future future future pre-ind=1850, present=2000, future=2100 ハロゲン(Cl/Br)はEESCl として与える。 GCM Global mean N.H. mean Net O3 S.H. mean 成層圏起源 300hPa 500hPa Surface ① J(O3O1D)の増大 ② 水蒸気増加 ネット成層圏-対流圏オゾン交換量の変化: 1970 2000 1970 ネット STE (O3) 542.2 1980 498.8 1990 469.2 2000 397.0 (Tg/yr) -27% ① 成層圏オゾン量の減少 ② 対流圏オゾン量の増加 世界の化学・気候結合モデル Table.4 Atmospheric chemistry model corporatedin a climate model. Organization GCM CTM reference UKMO Cambridge Univ. HadCM3,4 HadGEM1 UM STOCHEM Collins et al. [1997,2002,2003]; Stevenson et al. [1998] Cambridge Univ. UM (TOMCAT) Zeng and Phyle [2003] MPI-Met ECAM (PRISM*) MOZART Brasseur et al. [1998]; Horowitz et al. [2003] DLR ECAM E39C (CHEM) Hein et al. [2001] France LMD LMD-GCM INCA Hauglustein et al. [2003] US NCAR CAM3-CCSM (WACCM) MOZART Brasseur et al. [1998]; Horowitz et al. [2003] Harvard Univ. NASA GISS GCM FRCGC/CCSR/NIES CCSR/NIES GCM (KISSME*) Country UK Germany Japan Mickley et al. [1999] CHASER Sudo et al.[2002,2003] * Integrated Earth system model. Experiment-II: UK, Norw, US のCTMグループも参加 ※ 日本からは FRCGC (CHASER and UCI モデル) Scenarios: Experiment-2 Sim. ID emissions Meteo. Description S1 IIASA-BAU-2000 2000(1990s) Baseline S2 IIASA-BAU-2030 2000 IIASA Business S3 IIASA-MFR-2030 2000 IIASA Max. Feasible Reduction S4 A2-2030 2000 SRES-A2 S5 IIASA-BAU-2030 2020s Climate Change※ S1,S5: GCM実験も行った。(基本的にNudging CTM モード) ※ HadCM3の結合実験による SST と Sea-ice 分布を使用。 GCM実験:9years run: 1995-2003 for S1 and 2025-2033 for S5. メタン濃度:各シナリオで fixed. Emission 変化 気候変動 夏季地表オゾン濃度 ( AOT40: 健康影響+植物への影響 ) S1: base-line S2: IIASA-2030 S3: 2030 (Max-Reduction) S4: SRES-A2 全球メタンおよび対流圏オゾンの収支: Experiment-2 CTM実験:Emission 変化 GCM実験: Emission+CC S1 S2 S3 S4 S1G S2G S5G CH4 global loss (TgCH4/yr) 526 615 522 645 529 616 628 CH4 global loss: troposph. 524 612 519 641 527 614 626 CH4 chemical turnover (yr) 9.22 9.36 9.30 9.26 9.17 9.34 8.82 O3 chemical prod. (TgO3/yr) 5054 5364 4675 6103 5022 5333 5370 O3 chemical loss (TgO3/yr) 4590 4854 4320 5428 4607 4859 5016 O3 net prod. (TgO3/yr) 464 510 355 675 415 474 354 O3 SFC depo. (TgO3/yr) 949 996 873 1124 949 999 979 O3 net STE (TgO3/yr) 517 503 539 471 506 478 570 485 486 518 449 534 525 624 O3 net STE (diagnostic) Base IIASA IIASA SRES Base IIASA IIASA line 2030 2030 -A2 line 2030 2030 Future simulations of ozone, methane, aerosols with chemistry coupled climate model Simulations with the SRES scenarios: Ex.) time evolution of global mean CH4 ! different evolutions for different scenarios ! in all cases, future warming reduces emission-induced CH4 increases with water vapor and temperature changes. A1 Warming-induced reduction A2 B1 気候変動が成層圏/対流圏間オゾン交換 (STE)に与える影響 成層圏→対流圏への(ネット)オゾン流入量 Exp2: +climate change(温暖化) Exp1 +83% 地表気温上昇(K) Sudo et al. [2003] Sudo et al. [2003] ネットオゾン流入分布 (gO3/yr) S1 2000 S5 2030