Download Frameworks

Climate Change Indicators
The Role of National Statistical Offices
UN Expert Group Meeting on
Climate Change and Sustainable Development
New York
15-16 October 2008
Robert Smith
Statistics Canada
Environment Accounts and Statistics Division
Division des comptes et de la statistique de l'environnement
Climate change indicators –
A Statistical roadmap
1. Framework – What to measure and why?
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Two options
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Policy as the guide
Theory as the guide
2. How to measure?
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Accounting systems
Classifications
Environment Accounts and Statistics Division
Division des comptes et de la statistique de l'environnement
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1. What to measure and why?
• Frameworks tell us what to measure and why –
they are the tools that give structure to statistics
– Policy-based frameworks
• Policy serves as the guide for what to measure and
why
• Most indicators of sustainable development are policybased
– Theory-based frameworks
• A theoretical understanding of the issue provides the
guide for what to measure and why
• The classic example is economic statistics, where
macroeconomic theory guides all data collection
Environment Accounts and Statistics Division
Division des comptes et de la statistique de l'environnement
3
Policy-based frameworks
Strengths
• Strengths
– Guaranteed buy-in from stakeholders
– Responsive to the express needs of decision
makers
– Flexible and adaptable as needs and
understanding change
Environment Accounts and Statistics Division
Division des comptes et de la statistique de l'environnement
4
Policy-based frameworks
Drawbacks
• Not always theoretically defensible
• Can lead to long indicator lists because of
“horse-trading”
• Prone to frequent revision, often with
every change of government
• Often differ significantly from one country
to the next
– Even if the issues actually don’t
Environment Accounts and Statistics Division
Division des comptes et de la statistique de l'environnement
5
Theory-based frameworks
Strengths
• Politically neutral
• Can be defended based on agreed
principles
– Can only be refuted if the theory is refuted
• Applicable across countries
• Not inflexible
– But also not subject to frequent change
Environment Accounts and Statistics Division
Division des comptes et de la statistique de l'environnement
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Theory-based frameworks
Drawbacks
• Theories that are not widely accepted can
lead to statistics that are not relevant
• Theory may be entirely absent in a given
domain, leaving policy as the only guide
• Theory leaves little room for stakeholder
input, possibly limiting buy-in or bringing
accusations of elitism
Environment Accounts and Statistics Division
Division des comptes et de la statistique de l'environnement
7
Policy or theory as a guide for statistics?
• Both have their place, but...
...theory-based frameworks are closer to what statistical
offices strive for in general
• Help ensure political independence of the statistical system
• Help ensure “compactness” in indicator sets
– No need to add indicators for political acceptability
• Indicators should form a complete, coherent and
interpretable set
• Stability over time allows time series to be built
• Wide applicability allows for int’l comparisons
• The question is whether a suitable theory exists
for climate change indicators
Environment Accounts and Statistics Division
Division des comptes et de la statistique de l'environnement
8
Capital theory as a framework for
climate change indicators
• Climate change impacts are long-term
– Capital theory is well suited to long-term issues
• The standard capital framework must be broadened
– Most importantly, to include natural capital
– Recognizing human and social capital also important
• The good news is that much of the thinking has
already been done
– Rich academic literature
– Joint ECE/OECD/Eurostat Working Group on Statistics for
Sustainable Development
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Division des comptes et de la statistique de l'environnement
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2. How to measure?
• Statistics compatible with those in other domains
are needed
– Understanding climate change impacts requires
linkage of environmental, economic and social
data
• UN System of Environment and Economic
Accounts (SEEA) is very close to what is needed
– A rigorous framework for organizing
environmental stock and flow data
– Closely aligned with economic statistics through
the System of National Accounts
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10
Classifications
• Many existing classifications are relevant
– industries, products, census regions
• Also needed are
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ecological classifications
land cover and land use classifications
drainage basin classifications
waste classifications
classifications of ecosystem services
• Climate change impacts will be spatially
differentiated
– therefore, spatial classifications are key for analysis
Environment Accounts and Statistics Division
Division des comptes et de la statistique de l'environnement
11
Data to address climate change impacts
• Economic and social data reasonably complete
– Health data may be an exception
• Environmental data are where the weaknesses
are mainly found, including
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Land use and land cover
Water use and availability
Air quality
Ecosystems
Energy
Environment Accounts and Statistics Division
Division des comptes et de la statistique de l'environnement
12
Thoughts on building environmental data
1.
Choose a clear and robust conceptual framework to guide
data collection
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2.
Follow the success story of economic statistics to build
environmental statistics programs
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3.
4.
Focus on time series of a few key indicators
Ensure cooperation between statistical offices and policy
departments
Bring environmental statistics more into the mainstream
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5.
Avoids ad hoc collection
Many opportunities lost today due to poor coordination of effort
Build a spatial analysis capacity and collect data that can
exploit its potential
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Cannot measure climate change impacts except spatially
Environment Accounts and Statistics Division
Division des comptes et de la statistique de l'environnement
13
Thank you
Robert Smith
Director, Environment Accounts and Statistics
Statistics Canada
[email protected]
613-951-2810
Environment Accounts and Statistics Division
Division des comptes et de la statistique de l'environnement