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RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN MONITORING AND PREDICTION OF EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTS Hiroshi SATODA Japan Meteorological Agency Tsu Local Observatory WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) WATCHING EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTS Synoptic and climatological reports 0 2000 4000 Japan Meteorological Agency Km WMO/CBS Lead Centre Quality Check Advisories/ recommendations to improve reporting practice Analysis Winkel's projection Trend in anomalously high/low temperature frequency 出現数(回/30年) Anomaly charts Public Policy makers NMHSs NMHS: National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (oC) 7 high 6 Japan 5 Number of events per year 4 3 2 low 1 0 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 年 WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) 2 CLIMATE SYSTEM MONITORING 0 2000 4000 Km Global Observing System Objective analysis Winkel's projection Monitoring of the current status of the climate system Atmospheric circulation Oceanic conditions Tropical convection etc 3 WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) MONITORING OF DISASTERS AND EXTREME EVENTS 0 2000 4000 Km Cool summer Forest fire 10 Sep 2003 Iwate Prefecture Press reports on natural disasters Climate system monitoring Winkel's projection Flood Drought Amagi Agricultural Office Global extreme climate event chart (Extreme events in 2004) Stormy snow Nov Dry Jun Drought Jun-Jul Forest fire Oct Hot, dry, forest fire Jun-Sep Cold Jan,Feb Storm,wet Oct Dry Oct Drought Sep-Nov Hot Jun Heat wave, Forest fire Jun-Jul Hot Jun-Jul Wet Jul,Oct Wet, typhoons May-Nov,Dec Cyclones Mar Cold Dec-Jan Wet Jul,Aug Cyclones,storm Apr-Oct Wet May-Jun Hurricanes Aug-Sep Cold Jun-Jul Wet Jul Wet Jan-Feb Dry Jun, Drought Jun-Jul 4 WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) EUROPEAN HOT SUMMER 2003 Issued a report of JMA’s views on the status of the high temperature in Europe on 13 August 2003 Meet requirements for information on the status and mechanisms of extreme events Temperature anomalies (1-12 Aug 2003) 500 hPa circulation (1-12 Aug 2003) 850 hPa circulation and temperature (1-12 Aug 2003) WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) 5 ENSEMBLE SEASONAL PREDICTION Slightly different initial conditions Numerical prediction with the supercomputer Set of predictions (ensemble prediction) Temperature anomaly Analysis Predictions Probabilities of anomaly 20 % With the ensemble prediction method … (1) probability predictions can be issued; and Below normal 30 % 50 % Normal Above normal (2) accuracy will increase with model improvement. 6 WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) GLOBAL WARMING AND EXTREME EVENTS Global mean temperature upper estimate (5.8℃) Projected changes in extreme weather and climate events Very likely: •Higher max temperature and more hot days (all land) •Higher min temperature and fewer cold and frost days (all land) •Reduced diurnal temperature range (most land areas) •more intense precipitation events (mid-/high- lat land) Likely: •Increased summer drying, risk of drought (mid-lat continent) •Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind and precipitation Global mean temperature lower estimate (1.4℃) Mean surface temperature in the last 1000 years (Northern Hemisphere) +0.5 0 -0.5 1000 1500 2000 IPCC Third Assessment Report 2100 WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) 7 GLOBAL WARMING PROJECTION Projection of global climate change by 2100 surface temperature change precipitation change (Jul) Projection of regional climate change by 2100 temperature change precipitation change Researchers of impact assessment on •Forestry •Agriculture •Terrestrial ecosystem •Disaster risk management •Health … 8 WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) ACTIVITIES OF TOKYO CLIMATE CENTER Global Dynamical Prediction Monitoring of Global Climate System Monitoring of Extreme Events ENSO Outlook Global Warming Projection Graphic information Grid Point Values Technical Assistance Asia-Pacific NMHSs Requirements Provision of Basic Climate Data and Products Graphic information Capacity Building Activities General users 9 WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) THANK YOU. © Japan Meteorological Agency, 2005 WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005)