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RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
IN
MONITORING AND PREDICTION
OF
EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTS
Hiroshi SATODA
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tsu Local Observatory
WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water
Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005)
WATCHING EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTS
Synoptic and climatological reports
0
2000
4000
Japan Meteorological Agency
Km
WMO/CBS Lead Centre
Quality Check
Advisories/ recommendations
to improve reporting practice
Analysis
Winkel's projection
Trend in anomalously high/low
temperature frequency
出現数（回/30年）
Anomaly charts
Public
Policy makers
NMHSs
NMHS: National
Meteorological and
Hydrological Service
(oC)
7
high
6 Japan
5
Number of events per year
4
3
2
low
1
0
1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
年
WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water
Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005)
2
CLIMATE SYSTEM MONITORING
0
2000
4000
Km
Global Observing System
Objective analysis
Winkel's projection
Monitoring of the current status of the climate system
Atmospheric
circulation
Oceanic conditions
Tropical convection etc
3
WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water
Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005)
MONITORING OF DISASTERS AND EXTREME EVENTS
0
2000
4000
Km
Cool summer
Forest fire
10 Sep 2003 Iwate Prefecture
Press reports
on natural disasters
Climate system
monitoring
Winkel's projection
Flood
Drought
Amagi Agricultural Office
Global extreme climate event chart (Extreme events in 2004)
Stormy snow Nov
Dry Jun
Drought Jun-Jul
Forest fire Oct
Hot, dry, forest fire Jun-Sep
Cold Jan,Feb
Storm,wet Oct
Dry Oct
Drought Sep-Nov
Hot Jun
Heat wave, Forest
fire Jun-Jul
Hot Jun-Jul
Wet Jul,Oct
Wet, typhoons May-Nov,Dec
Cyclones Mar
Cold Dec-Jan
Wet Jul,Aug
Cyclones,storm Apr-Oct
Wet May-Jun
Hurricanes Aug-Sep
Cold Jun-Jul
Wet Jul
Wet Jan-Feb
Dry Jun, Drought Jun-Jul
4
WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water
Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005)
EUROPEAN HOT SUMMER 2003
Issued a report of JMA’s views
on the status of the high temperature in
Europe on 13 August 2003
Meet requirements for information on the
status and mechanisms of extreme events
Temperature anomalies (1-12 Aug 2003)
500 hPa circulation (1-12 Aug 2003)
850 hPa circulation and temperature
(1-12 Aug 2003)
WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water
Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005)
5
ENSEMBLE SEASONAL PREDICTION
Slightly different
initial conditions
Numerical prediction
with the supercomputer
Set of predictions
(ensemble prediction)
Temperature anomaly
Analysis
Predictions
Probabilities of anomaly
20 %
With the ensemble prediction method …
(1) probability predictions can be issued; and
Below
normal
30 %
50 %
Normal
Above
normal
(2) accuracy will increase with model improvement.
6
WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water
Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005)
GLOBAL WARMING AND EXTREME EVENTS
Global mean temperature
upper estimate （5.8℃）
Projected changes in extreme weather and climate events
Very likely:
•Higher max temperature and more hot days (all land)
•Higher min temperature and fewer cold and frost days (all land)
•Reduced diurnal temperature range (most land areas)
•more intense precipitation events (mid-/high- lat land)
Likely:
•Increased summer drying, risk of drought (mid-lat continent)
•Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind and precipitation
Global mean temperature
lower estimate （1.4℃）
Mean surface temperature in the last 1000 years (Northern Hemisphere)
+0.5
0
-0.5
1000
1500
2000
IPCC Third Assessment Report
2100
WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water
Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005)
7
GLOBAL WARMING PROJECTION
Projection of global climate change by 2100
surface temperature change
precipitation change (Jul)
Projection of regional climate change by 2100
temperature change
precipitation change
Researchers of impact
assessment on
•Forestry
•Agriculture
•Terrestrial ecosystem
•Disaster risk management
•Health …
8
WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water
Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005)
ACTIVITIES OF TOKYO CLIMATE CENTER
Global Dynamical
Prediction
Monitoring of
Global Climate System
Monitoring of
Extreme Events
ENSO Outlook
Global Warming
Projection
Graphic information
Grid Point Values
Technical Assistance
Asia-Pacific NMHSs
Requirements
Provision of Basic
Climate Data and Products
Graphic information
Capacity Building Activities
General users
9
WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water
Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005)
THANK YOU.
© Japan Meteorological Agency, 2005
WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water
Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005)