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Scientific tools for coastal zone management
Hans von Storch
Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG)
Centre for Materials and Coastal Research
 Non-university public research centre
 Staff: > 900, located in Geesthacht/Hamburg and in Teltow/Berlin
 Funding: > 90 M € p.a.: 9:1 split between Federal and Regional (Länder) authorities, e.g. Hamburg
 National Lab within the Helmholtz-Association (Budget: > 3 Bn €)
 HZG- Research Portfolio:
1/3 Coastal and Climate Research, 2/3 Materials Research:
Preserve resources and guarantee
mobility through light-weight
and multifunctional materials
Enable regenerative therapies
through new biomaterials
Help society to cope with natural
and anthropogenic changes in global
and regional coastal systems
Coasts
Coasts have undergone significant
changes in the past centuries and
decades. In the past, the usage of the
coastal seas was mostly unregulated.
Nowadays a detailed planning of the
German coastal sea area is prepared,
with regulated usage in different parts,
such as natural preservation, shipping,
tourism and wind energy.
This transformation did not happen
without broad public debates and
conflicts. These conflicts were based on
very different perceptions of what the
coast is and how it should be used.
Coasts – contested usages
Contribution of coastal science to decision
making in coastal issues
• Coasts need to be managed.
• Management needs a scientific basis.
• Task I: Short term events and emerging risks –
monitoring and short term prediction.
• Task II: Determining, describing and assessing ongoing
and possible future long-term change.
Task I: Monitoring the state and the change
of the coastal environment
Nordsee
Land-Meer-Interaktionen
Räumliche und zeitliche
Variabilität
Trends
Events, Risiken
COSYNA (Coastal Observing
System for Northern and Arctic
Seas) is a synoptic observing
system for the environmental status
of the North Sea. Numerous
automatic in situ and satellite
observations are continuously
assimilated in models, thus
producing hourly real-time forecasts
of high quality.
The data are used by science,
Photo:
NASA and authorities.
industry,
Operational COSYNA Products
Nordsee
Actual state & forecast:
• current
• waves
Land-Meer-Interaktionen
Räumliche und zeitliche
Variabilität
Trends
Events, Risiken
• salinity
• temperature
• turbidity / chlorophyll
Application:
• oil spills/chemical accidents
• toxic algal blooms
Photo: NASA• wind farms
Product Currents
Nordsee
Land-Meer-Interaktionen
Räumliche und zeitliche
Variabilität
Trends
Events, Risiken
Photo: NASA
Task II: Determining, describing and assessing ongoing and possible future long-term change
•
•
•
•
Coastal conditions and utilizations are permanently changing.
Part of the recent change is due to natural processes, another part is man-made.
Risks in and utility of coastal zones undergo variations because of these changes.
Among the drivers of this change are local modifications (such as dredging
shipping channels) and global changes (in particular climate change)
• Societal decisions (mitigation / adaptation) on how to deal with such changing
risks and utility are political, and will be based on social values (such as economic
growth, protection of environmental conditions).
• Coastal science contributes to the knowledge base of such decisions, by
explaining ongoing and possible future changes, their links to drivers, and
options/perspectives for the future.
• Coastal science is not part of the decision process itself.
We need knowledge about past conditions and their change
-
of parameters such as wind, precipitation, ocean waves, currents etc.
-
for determining risks (of high waves, for instance), of opportunities (frequency of
low wind episodes)
We need also scenarios of possible future conditions (years, decades in
advance) – not forecasts, but possible, plausible conditions which may emerge if a
certain measure is taken (accelerated climate change; installation of many wind
turbines, adding erosion protection measures …)
We describe and analyse past change for 1948-today, and scenarios for the time
period 2010-2100 in our data bank CoastDat. This system can also be implemented
in any other part of the world
significant wave height
[days]
wave direction
[days]
Red: buoy, yellow: radar, blue: wave model run with REMO winds
Storm surge height scenarios 2030, 2085
Only the effect of changing
weather conditions is
considered, not the effect of
water works such as dredging
the shipping channel.
The CoastDat-effort
at the Institute for Coastal Research@HZG
 Long-term, high-resolution reconstructions (60 years) of present and recent
developments of weather related phenomena in coastal regions as well as
scenarios of future developments (100 years)
 Northeast Atlantic and northern Europe.
 Assessment of changes in storms, ocean waves, storm surges, currents and
regional transport of anthropogenic substances.
 Extension to other regions and to ecological parameters.
Applications
 many authorities with responsibilities for different aspects of the German coasts
 economic applications by engineering companies (off-shore wind potentials and
risks) and shipbuilding company
 Public information
www.coastdat.de
Some applications
- Ship design
- Navigational safety
- Offshore wind
- Interpretation of measurements
- Oils spill risk and chronic oil pollution
- Ocean energy
- Scenarios of storm surge conditions
- Scenarios of future wave conditions
Currents Power [W/m2]
Wave Energy Flux [kW/m]
What are causes of ongoing change?
• Often a number of drivers are causing change in coastal regions, e.g. climate
change, euthropication, pollution, overfishing, mofications of shipping
channels etc.
• In the public debate, often claims about the cause for a change is amde
according to the utility of the political argument. - social constructions of
causes
• However, an analysis of the dominant causes is needed. – scientific
constructions.
Natural hazards as social construction
- an example from Guyana
Flooding in Guyana:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Historical settlement strategy and structure (ca. 90% of the
population and ca. 75% of GDP in coastal plains, sugar &
rice).
Sugar industry in decline, enhanced lumber production.
Heavy flooding in recent years
Standard explanation of the flooding: Global sea level rise
More detailed analysis reveals: Lack of maintenance of the
drainage system due to decline of the sugar industry
Lack of national disaster management programs and no
political responsibility for the unmaintained drainage canals
Deforestation of the hinterland leads to increased runoff

Hazards exist in the context of economic interest,
perception, social relations and political influences.
Summary
1. Coastal and climate science are needed for a region like the metropolitan
region of Hamburg to face the challenges and chances of climate change
and modernization.
2. One scientific challenge is the provision of technology and methods to
describe the present change and the short term future for dealing with
operational off-shore and on-.shore activities, as well as with managing
catastrophic events (incl. oil spills)
3. Another challenge is the analysis of ongoing change, the identification of
dominant causes, and the derivation of options for future development.