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Global Wildland Fire – how do we adapt to climate change? Mike Flannigan , Lynn Bowman, Bill de Groot, Meg Krawchuk and Mike Wotton Canadian Forest Service – Sault Ste Marie & Edmonton, University of Alberta, California Berkeley and Toronto Outline Fire background Climate change and impacts of climate change on fire activity Options for fire research and management Global Wildland Fire On average about 350-450 M Ha burn every year. Larger than the size of India No idea as to how many fire starts though people are probably responsible for about 90% of the starts Largest area burned is in grasslands and savannas Wildland urban interface Fire is a necessary component in some ecosystems Key factors: weather, fuels, ignitions and people Global Fire Activity Data in video from Mouillot and Field 2005: Mouillot F, Field CB (2005) Fire history and the global carbon budget: a 1°× 1° fire history reconstruction for the 20th century. Global Change Biology 11, 398-420. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00920.x People and Fire Human impacts on fire: -Land use change including clearing and abandonment -Fire management - ignitions accidental and deliberate Fire impacts on humans -Loss of life, infrastructure, evacuations, air quality, water quality -Fire suppression costs -Indirect, climate change and ecological benefits(biodiversity) Fire Management Wide range of fire management activities and effectiveness Many billions of dollars spent every year on direct fire management costs Fire management replacing fire suppression in some regions – delicate balancing act ; protection vs ecology Forest Fires – 4 Key Factors Fuel - loading, moisture, structure etc. Ignition - human and lightning Weather - temperature, precipitation atmospheric moisture and wind; upper atmospheric conditions (blocking ridges), solar radiation, climatic patterns (ENSO) Humans - land use, fragmentation, fire management etc. Climate Change Climate is warming due primarily to human activities - GHG emissions and land use Much less confidence in precipitation than in temperature Significant warming expected 1.5 to 6C by end of the century More climatic extremes droughts, heat waves, floods etc. Projected temperature changes vary considerably from year to year 9 Fire & Temperature Key variable in fire activity for 3 reasons First, the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold is highly sensitive to temperature. This drives fuel moisture; if temperature increases then significant increases in precipitation are needed to compensate Approx. 10% increase in prec. Is required to compensate for every degree of warming Second, temperature has a strong positive correlation with lightning…the warmer it is the more lightning we have. Third, the warmer it is the longer the fire season; particularly important at high northern latitudes. Future Fire Changes in climate (including warmer temperatures, changes in precipitation, atmospheric moisture, wind, and cloudiness) affect wildfires Direct, indirect, and interactive effects of weather/climate, fuels, and people will determine future fire activity Area burned Fire occurrence Fire season Fire intensity Fire severity Relative change (percentage increase) in fire occurrence between future and baseline scenarios for the Canadian Climate Centre GCM. Relative change is given as the percentage increase in number of fires predicted by the GCM (future scenario minus baseline scenario) divided by the total number of fires in the baseline scenario ( i.e., (N2020-2040 – N1975-1995)/ N1975-1995 ); “no data” is shown in white. Fire and Carbon Fire plays a major role in carbon dynamics: it can determine whether the ecosystem is a carbon source or sink 1) combustion: direct loss .This can be globally significant when considering peatlands (legacy carbon). 2) decomposition of fire-killed vegetation 3) Change in vegetation stage or type: Fire and Weather Feedbacks: potentially positive 1860-2002 0.8 Degrees C 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Fossil Fuel emissions: increase greenhouse gases Weather becomes more conducive to fire: more fire 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Cause warmer conditions Carbon released from more fire enhances greenhouse gases further Future Research Accurate data for current global fire activity Future fire activity projections from around the world Modelling - DGVMs, coupling with GCMs Human Dimension – behaviour, policies and practices Decision support systems - global early warning systems -updated & enhanced fire danger rating systems Options and Adaptations Regional cooperation – resource sharing, training and education Protection of communities, infrastructures through FireSmart, FireWise or similar programs Use of early warming systems and updated fire danger rating systems Promotion and enforcement of policies and practices that will discourage unwanted fires Summary Fire and weather are strongly linked Changes in forest fires may be the greatest early impact of climate change on forests Fire activity will increase in a changing climate, but will be variable in time and space Need for international cooperation Early warning systems Sharing resources Cooperative research 25 August 2010