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Transcript 
Climate Change
Past, Present and Future
Mark New
Climate Research Group
The Earth Today
600,000,000 Years Ago
18,000 Years Ago
Global Change Research in SoGE
Quaternary Science Ecological Change
Climate Change
Prof David Thomas
Dr Kathy Willis
Dr Richard Washington
Dr Stephen Stokes
Dr Rob Whittaker
Dr Mark New
Dr Richard Bailey
Dr Yadvinder Mahli
Dr Ana Lopez
Dr Simon Armitage
Dr Lindsey Gillson
Dr Anthony Preston
Dr Mortezza Fatahi
Dr Terry Brncic
Dr Kathleen Nicoll
Dr. Miguel Araújo
Ice Cores
Ice Cores
The Vostok Ice Core Record
The Vostok Ice Core Record
Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
Global Near Surface Temperature
Variability from Palaeodata
Natural Forcing Only
Anthropogenic Forcing Only
Natural & Anthropogenic Forcing
Attribution of Impacts
Attribution of Impacts
Central England Temperature (Jul & Aug)
Temperature (C)
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
1650
1750
1850
Year
1950
Was Last Summer due to Global
Warming?
• Probability of these temperatures without
CO2 forcing is ~0.2% (1:500 years)
• Probability of these temperature today with
CO2 forcing is ~4.0% (1:25 years)
• Probability of these temperatures in 2020, if
CO2 increases continue is 20% (1:5 years)
The Earth Today
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