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Modeling Urban Water Management: Using Climate Change Information Margaret Hahn and Richard Palmer University of Washington Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Contents • Project Area and Background – Interconnection of Everett, Seattle and Tacoma • Project process – Linked models • Results of Reservoir Management model – Annual minimum storage • Impacts on planning process – Existing plans may not be sufficient Tacoma Seattle Intertie Lake Washington Revised from Nelligan-Doran, 1999 Lake Youngs SEATTLE Cedar Reservoir SKCRWA TSI Pipeline 5 HAH Reservoir TACOMA Pipeline 4 Pipeline 2 Pipeline 1 N Everett Seattle Intertie Everett Pipelines 2-4 Pipeline 5 Clearview Pipeline Proposed ESI Alignment TPL 1 TPL 2 Spada Lake Reservoir Snohomish County King County Tolt Reservoir Seattle ESSL N Planning and Management Analysis • 2020 and 2040 forecasted demands • 2020 and 2040 climate change based stream flows – PCM – ECHAM • Status quo system configuration • Tacoma Seattle Intertie • Everett Seattle Intertie Overall Analysis Process • Meteorological data Precip and temp • Hydrology model DHSVM • Calibration Historic vs Simulated • Climate Shift Downscaled GCM • Impacts Evaluation CRYSTAL model DHSVM Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model Green River Flow into Howard Hanson Reservoir 10000 Observed 9000 Current Climate - Modeled 8000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 /1 /6 9 10 /1 /6 8 10 /1 /6 7 10 /1 /6 6 10 /1 /6 5 10 /1 /6 4 10 /1 /6 3 10 /1 /6 2 10 /1 /6 1 10 /1 /6 0 10 /1 /5 9 0 10 Flow, cfs 7000 Green River Flow into Howard Hanson Reservoir Current Climate - Modeled 10000 PCM 2020s 9000 PCM 2040s ECHAM 2020s 8000 ECHAM 2040s Flow, cfs 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 10/1/59 12/1/59 2/1/60 4/1/60 6/1/60 8/1/60 10/1/60 Annual Average Hydrograph Green River Flows into Howard Hanson Reservoir 2500 Current Climate PCM 2020 PCM 2040 ECHAM 2020 ECHAM 2040 Inflow, cfs 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep CRYSTAL Cascade Regional Yield Simulation and Analysis Model • Simulation model of Puget Sound water supply • Considers future demands, policies, supplies and infrastructures • Uses weekly time step • Developed in Powersim • Picture of Crystal Planning and Management Analysis • 2020 and 2040 forecasted demands • 2020 and 2040 climate change based stream flows – PCM – ECHAM • Status quo system configuration • Tacoma Seattle Intertie • Everett Seattle Intertie Results • Compare – minimum annual storage – number of shortfalls – duration of shortfalls • Reliability – 43 year record – any shortfall is considered a failure – no demand modification Annual Minimum Storage Chester Morse Reservoir Combined Seatle Reservoirs PCM Climate Change Scenario Current Climate 2020 60000 2040 55000 Acre-feet 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 Annual Minimum Storage Combined Seattle Reservoirs Chester Morse Reservoir ECHAM Climate Change Scenario Current Climate 2020 2040 60000 55000 Acre-feet 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 Annual Minimum Storage Seattle Reservoirs ChesterCombined Morse Reservoir 2020 Demands Current Climate - Status Quo PCM - Status Quo PCM - Tacoma Seattle Intertie 60000 55000 Acre-feet 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 Annual Minimum Storage Combined Seattle Reservoirs Chester Morse Reservoir 2020 Demands Current Climate - Status Quo 60000 ECHAM - Tacoma Seattle Intertie ECHAM - Status Quo 55000 Acre-feet 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 Annual Minimum Storage Combined Seattle Reservoirs Chester Morse Reservoir 2040 Demands 60000 Current Climate - Status Quo PCM - Status Quo PCM - Tacoma Seattle Intertie 55000 Acre-feet 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 Annual Minimum Storage Combined Seattle Reservoirs Chester Morse Reservoir 2040 Demands Current Climate - Status Quo PCM - Status Quo PCM - Tacoma Seattle Intertie 60000 PCM - Tacoma Seattle Everett Intertie 55000 Acre-feet 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 Comparison of Scenarios for year 2040 climate change and 2040 demands 300 Number of Failures 250 200 150 100 50 0 Annual Current Reliability 76% ECHAM 23% PCM 38% Status Quo Current ECHAM 83% 23% TS Intertie PCM 40% Current PCM 100% 95% TS & ES Intertie Planning Implications • Ongoing regional planning efforts are important • TSI will provide only a portion of supply needed • Climate change results imply regional needs for cooperation and new approaches • Without new supply or dramatic changes in demand, system reliability will be unacceptable
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