Download The EU's Resource Efficiency Perspectives in the Global

Resource Scarcity in a
Sea of Plenty Some Lessons for
Effective Resource
Policies
Stephan Slingerland
Transatlantic
Kivi
Niria jaarcongres,
Academy
23 January
12
november
2012
2011
3 Lessons for effective resource policies
2
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
3 Lessons for effective resource policies

3
A different discussion
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
3 Lessons for effective resource policies
4

A different discussion

Transparent goals and
interactions
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
3 Lessons for effective resource policies
5

A different discussion

Transparent goals and
interactions

A balanced mix of options
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Resource scarcity:
1. A different discussion
2. Transparent goals
3. Balanced options
Transatlantic
Kivi
Niria jaarcongres,
Academy
23 January
12
november
2012
2011
Resource scarcity is of all times…
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Resource scarcity is of all times…
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Resource scarcity is of all times…
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Resource scarcity is of all times…
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
The current discussion has more dimensions
Source: PBL, 2011
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Not only depletion, but also indirect physical
effects of resource use …
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Not only depletion, but also indirect physical
effects of resource use …
Climate change
Source: PBL, 2009
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Not only depletion, but also indirect physical
effects of resource use …
Climate change
Source: PBL, 2009
Biodiversity loss
Source: PBL, 2011a
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
… short-term price peaks…
Source: PBL, 2010
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
… short-term price peaks…
Scarcity
Resources too expensive
Abundance (environmental degradation):
Resources too cheap
Source: PBL, 2010
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
… and resource security.
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Most severe effects in developing countries.
In PBL, 2011
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Resource scarcity:
1. A different discussion
2. Transparent goals
3. Balanced options
Transatlantic
Kivi
Niria jaarcongres,
Academy
23 January
12
november
2012
2011
Resource policies can have several objectives
1. Security of supply
2. Affordability
3. Environment
4. Development
20
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Objectives can conflict: choices are required
Source: PBL, 2011
21
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Current EU policy goals
 Environment track / Resource efficiency
– Flagship initiative ‘Resource Efficient Europe’ (January
2011)
– ‘Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe’ (October 2011)
 Security of supply track / Raw materials
– ‘Tackling the challenges on commodity markets and on raw
materials’ (February 2011)
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Current EU policy goals
 Environment track / Resource efficiency
– Flagship initiative ‘Resource Efficient Europe’ (January
2011)
– ‘Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe’ (October 2011)
 Security of supply track / Raw materials
– ‘Tackling the challenges on commodity markets and on raw
materials’ (February 2011)
Where are priorities?
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Current EU policy goals
 Environment track / Resource efficiency
– Flagship initiative ‘Resource Efficient Europe’ (January
2011)
– ‘Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe’ (October 2011)
 Security of supply track / Raw materials
– ‘Tackling the challenges on commodity markets and on raw
materials’ (February 2011)
Where are priorities? Where is development?
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Resource scarcity:
1. A different discussion
2. Transparent goals
3. Balanced options
Transatlantic
Kivi
Niria jaarcongres,
Academy
23 January
12
november
2012
2011
Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet
26
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet
 Relative decoupling is not
absolute decoupling
27
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet
 Relative decoupling is not
absolute decoupling
 Rebound effect
28
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet
 Relative decoupling is not
absolute decoupling
 Rebound effect
 Other necessary directions
– Substitution
– Behavioural changes
29
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet
 Relative decoupling is not
absolute decoupling
 Rebound effect
 Other necessary directions
– Substitution
– Behavioural changes
 Involve other actors
30
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
3 Lessons for effective resource policies
31

Integrate all dimensions of the
new resource discussion

Be transparent about trade-offs
between goals

Develop a balanced set of policy
options
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Thank you!
www.pbl.nl
Transatlantic
Kivi
Niria jaarcongres,
Academy
23 January
12
november
2012
2011
Literature - PBL reports used
 2009 Growing within Limits
 2010 Scarcity and Transition
 2011 Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
 2011a The Protein Puzzle
 2011b Rethinking Global Biodiversity Strategies
 2011c EU Resource Efficiency Perspectives in a Global
Context
 2011d The Energic Society
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Efficiency will not achieve climate goals
Source: PBL, 2011c
35
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Trade-offs need to be considered…
Competing additional claims on land in 2050
 Agriculture
 Energy crops
 Protected area
 Other ecosystem services
 Forestry
 Potentially lost due to degradation
7-31 million km2  available 17 million km2
Source: PBL, 2011a
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty