Download Document

Long-Term Electricity Report
Susan Gray
September 27, 2010
1
Long-Term Electricity Report
Not a planning document and will not recommend policy
• Executive Order 01.01.2010.16 - Identify approaches to
meet Maryland’s long-term electricity needs and to achieve
a clean, reliable, and affordable energy future
• Executive Order (EO) analysis will include:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
2
Existing and planned electric generating capacity
Demand response
Electricity-based transportation
Existing and planned electric transmission
Conventional and renewable generating capacity additions (including
small-scale distributed generation)
Fuel-switching
Energy conservation and efficiency
Smart grid
Energy storage technologies
Long-Term Electricity Report
• EO evaluation criteria:
–
–
–
–
–
Long-term cost and cost stability (including congestion costs)
Supply reliability
Transmission and distribution issues
Minimization of adverse environmental and land-use impacts
Consistency with state and federal environmental laws
• Solicit input and comments from a wide range of
stakeholders
• Hold public meetings prior to completion of the report
• Final Report – December 1, 2011
• Update the report every 5 years
3
Long-Term Electricity Report
Preliminary Analysis Approach
• Use Ventyx Integrated model outputs
– Generating capacity changes (retirements,
additions, retrofits)
– Capacity prices & zonal LMPs
– REC and emissions allowance prices
– Emissions of pollutants (CO2, SO2, NOx)
– Generation and fuel sources by zone
• Use PJM energy and demand forecasts (adjust
for demand response and EE/EC)
4
Long-Term Electricity Report
Building on other past and ongoing efforts
Maryland PSC’s SB400
Final Report to the
General Assembly - and
Supplement
MEA’s Maryland Energy
Outlook
Long-term
Electricity Report
MDE/MEA/PSC
Maryland Multi-pollutant
analysis
Eastern Interconnection
States’ Planning Council
Transmission Options
Study
Maryland PSC’s
10-Year Plan
Long-Term Electricity Report
Preliminary Analysis Approach (cont.)
7+ potential base case scenarios to be run along with
16+ alternative scenarios
Base Case 1: PJM load forecast adjusted for demand response in years 4-20, EE/EC legislation,
and smart meters; current power plant capacity adjusted for highly likely plants in the PJM
queue; and, renewable projects sufficient to meet MD RPS
Base Case 2:
Base Case 1
plus
Calvert Cliffs 3
National carbon
legislation
6
Base Case 7:
Base Case 3:
Base Case 1
plus
PATH
MAPP
Base Case 4:
Base Case 5:
Base Case 6:
Base Case 1
Base Case 1
Base Case 1
plus
plus
plus
PATH
MAPP
Calvert Cliffs 3
Base Case 1
plus
Calvert Cliffs 3
PATH & MAPP
National carbon
legislation
Long-Term Electricity Report
Preliminary Analysis Approach (cont.)
Possible alternative scenarios run on different base cases
1. High Renewables Development
(on-shore & off-shore wind, solar, biomass)
2. Medium Renewables Development
• Base Cases 1, 2, 3, 7
3. High Gas Prices
• Base Cases 1, 7
4. Aggressive Energy Efficiency and Conservation
(EE/EC)
• Base Cases 1, 2, 3, 7
5. Climate Change
(weather forecast that incorporates climate change)
7
• Base Cases 1, 2, 3, 7
• Base Cases 1, 7
Long-Term Electricity Report
Step #1 – get the assumptions right and make the
process transparent.
Step #2 – make the model runs.
Use PPRAC as advisory committee during
development of the report.
8
Long-Term Electricity Report
Based on informal inputs received from several PPRAC
members and on-going research:
– EmPOWER Maryland goals - met in the base cases or reflect lessthan-full achievement based on current approved programs?
– Potential additional scenarios for high electric vehicle penetration?
– Mix of renewable generating capacity for high renewables cases
(how much off-shore & on-shore wind, solar, other)?
– Renewable Portfolio Standard – re: solar carve out - met in the
base cases or reflect less-than-full achievement?
Long-Term Electricity Report
Schedule
• Assumptions completed & documented – December 2010
• Receive PJM 2011 Forecast and begin runs – January 2011
• Preliminary Draft Report – March 2011
– Introductory and background sections
– Descriptions of models and development of model input parameters
– Results of base case runs (w/o all alternative scenarios)
• Draft report – late April 2011
– Followed by a public meeting
• Final draft report – late Summer/Fall 2011
• Followed by a public meeting
• Final Report – December 1, 2011
10
Long-Term Electricity Report
Questions?
11