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Download Models in the Integrated Assessment of Climate Change
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A stocks and flows approach An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 1. the principal domains Atmospheric Concentrations •Greenhouse gases •Aerosols & precursors Society and Economy Main drivers are •economic growth • technology • population and • governance Climate System •Air and sea temperatures •Precipitation •Snow and ice cover Natural Systems •Land use •Food and water systems •Ecosystems &biodiversity •Animal and plant health An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 2.different development paths give rise to (1) different levels and mixes of anthropogenic emissions that accumulate and (2) other environmental stresses on human and natural systems Atmospheric Concentrations •Greenhouse gases •Aerosols & precursors Climate System •Air and sea temperatures •Precipitation •Snow and ice cover Anthropogenic emissions Society and Economy Main drivers are •economic growth • technology • population and • governance Non-climate change stresses Natural Systems •Land use •Food and water systems •Ecosystems &biodiversity •Animal and plant health An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 3. atmospheric concentrations lead to the enhanced greenhouse effect and effects on human and natural systems e.g. damage from air pollution and acid rain Atmospheric Concentrations Enhanced greenhouse effect Climate System •Air and sea temperatures •Precipitation •Snow and ice cover •Greenhouse gases •Aerosols & precursors Anthropogenic emissions Society and Economy Main drivers are •economic growth • technology • population and • governance Natural Systems •Land use •Food and water systems •Ecosystems &biodiversity •Animal and plant health Non-climate change stresses An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 4. air-temperature and sea-level rises imply e.g. higher risks of floods and droughts Atmospheric Concentrations •Greenhouse gases •Aerosols & precursors Enhanced greenhouse effect Climate change stresses Anthropogenic emissions Society and Economy Main drivers are •economic growth • technology • population and • governance Climate System •Air and sea temperatures •Precipitation •Snow and ice cover Natural Systems •Land use •Food and water systems •Ecosystems &biodiversity •Animal and plant health Non-climate change stresses An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 5. Various feedbacks and interactions modify the effects Feedbacks Enhanced greenhouse effect Climate change stresses Anthropogenic emissions Society and Economy Main drivers are •economic growth • technology • population and • governance Climate System •Air and sea temperatures •Precipitation •Snow and ice cover Feedbacks Atmospheric Concentrations •Greenhouse gases •Aerosols & precursors Natural Systems •Land use •Food and water systems •Ecosystems &biodiversity •Animal and plant health Non-climate change stresses An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 6. changes in the natural systems alter socioeconomic development Feedbacks Enhanced greenhouse effect Environmental impacts Non-climate change stresses Climate change stresses Anthropogenic emissions Society and Economy Main drivers are •economic growth • technology • population and • governance Climate System •Air and sea temperatures •Precipitation •Snow and ice cover Feedbacks Atmospheric Concentrations •Greenhouse gases •Aerosols & precursors Natural Systems •Land use •Food and water systems •Ecosystems &biodiversity •Animal and plant health An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 7. adaptation reduces the environmental impacts of climate change Feedbacks Atmospheric Concentrations •Greenhouse gases •Aerosols & precursors Climate System •Air and sea temperatures •Precipitation •Snow and ice cover Anthropogenic emissions Adaptation Environmental impacts Society and Economy Main drivers are •economic growth • technology • population and • governance Non-climate change stresses Climate change stresses Feedbacks Enhanced greenhouse effect Natural Systems •Land use •Food and water systems •Ecosystems &biodiversity •Animal and plant health An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 8. Immediate mitigation effect - reduced emissions Feedbacks Atmospheric Concentrations •Greenhouse gases •Aerosols & precursors Climate System •Air and sea temperatures •Precipitation •Snow and ice cover Mitigation Adaptation Environmental impacts Anthropogenic emissions Society and Economy Main drivers are •economic growth • technology • population and • governance Non-climate change stresses Climate change stresses Feedbacks Enhanced greenhoue effect Natural Systems •Land use •Food and water systems •Ecosystems &biodiversity •Animal and plant health An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 9. mitigation then reduces the greenhouse effect and local air pollution. Feedbacks Atmospheric Concentrations •Greenhouse gases •Aerosols & precursors Climate System •Air and sea temperatures •Precipitation •Snow and ice cover Mitigation Adaptation Environmental impacts Anthropogenic emissions Society and Economy Main drivers are •economic growth • technology • population and • governance Non-climate change stresses Climate change stresses Feedbacks Enhanced greenhouse effect Natural Systems •Land use •Food and water systems •Ecosystems &biodiversity •Animal and plant health An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 10. mitigation also reduces climate change stresses and finally reduces the needFeedbacks to adapt. Atmospheric Concentrations •Greenhouse gases •Aerosols & precursors Climate System •Air and sea temperatures •Precipitation •Snow and ice cover Mitigation Adaptation Environmental impacts Anthropogenic emissions Society and Economy Main drivers are •economic growth • technology • population and • governance Non-climate change stresses Climate change stresses Feedbacks Enhanced greenhouse effect Natural Systems •Land use •Food and water systems •Ecosystems &biodiversity •Animal and plant health
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