Download Models in the Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

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A stocks and flows approach
An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate
Change: 1. the principal domains
Atmospheric
Concentrations
•Greenhouse gases
•Aerosols & precursors
Society and Economy
Main drivers are
•economic growth
• technology
• population and
• governance
Climate System
•Air and sea temperatures
•Precipitation
•Snow and ice cover
Natural Systems
•Land use
•Food and water systems
•Ecosystems &biodiversity
•Animal and plant health
An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate
Change: 2.different development paths give rise to (1)
different levels and mixes of anthropogenic emissions that
accumulate and (2) other environmental stresses on human
and natural systems
Atmospheric
Concentrations
•Greenhouse gases
•Aerosols & precursors
Climate System
•Air and sea temperatures
•Precipitation
•Snow and ice cover
Anthropogenic
emissions
Society and Economy
Main drivers are
•economic growth
• technology
• population and
• governance
Non-climate change
stresses
Natural Systems
•Land use
•Food and water systems
•Ecosystems &biodiversity
•Animal and plant health
An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate
Change: 3. atmospheric concentrations lead to the enhanced
greenhouse effect and effects on human and natural systems
e.g. damage from air pollution and acid rain
Atmospheric
Concentrations
Enhanced
greenhouse effect
Climate System
•Air and sea temperatures
•Precipitation
•Snow and ice cover
•Greenhouse gases
•Aerosols & precursors
Anthropogenic
emissions
Society and Economy
Main drivers are
•economic growth
• technology
• population and
• governance
Natural Systems
•Land use
•Food and water systems
•Ecosystems &biodiversity
•Animal and plant health
Non-climate change
stresses
An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate
Change: 4. air-temperature and sea-level rises imply e.g.
higher risks of floods and droughts
Atmospheric
Concentrations
•Greenhouse gases
•Aerosols & precursors
Enhanced
greenhouse effect
Climate change
stresses
Anthropogenic
emissions
Society and Economy
Main drivers are
•economic growth
• technology
• population and
• governance
Climate System
•Air and sea temperatures
•Precipitation
•Snow and ice cover
Natural Systems
•Land use
•Food and water systems
•Ecosystems &biodiversity
•Animal and plant health
Non-climate change
stresses
An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate
Change: 5. Various feedbacks and interactions modify the
effects
Feedbacks
Enhanced
greenhouse effect
Climate change
stresses
Anthropogenic
emissions
Society and Economy
Main drivers are
•economic growth
• technology
• population and
• governance
Climate System
•Air and sea temperatures
•Precipitation
•Snow and ice cover
Feedbacks
Atmospheric
Concentrations
•Greenhouse gases
•Aerosols & precursors
Natural Systems
•Land use
•Food and water systems
•Ecosystems &biodiversity
•Animal and plant health
Non-climate change
stresses
An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate
Change: 6. changes in the natural systems alter socioeconomic development
Feedbacks
Enhanced
greenhouse effect
Environmental
impacts
Non-climate change
stresses
Climate change
stresses
Anthropogenic
emissions
Society and Economy
Main drivers are
•economic growth
• technology
• population and
• governance
Climate System
•Air and sea temperatures
•Precipitation
•Snow and ice cover
Feedbacks
Atmospheric
Concentrations
•Greenhouse gases
•Aerosols & precursors
Natural Systems
•Land use
•Food and water systems
•Ecosystems &biodiversity
•Animal and plant health
An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate
Change: 7. adaptation reduces the environmental impacts of
climate change
Feedbacks
Atmospheric
Concentrations
•Greenhouse gases
•Aerosols & precursors
Climate System
•Air and sea temperatures
•Precipitation
•Snow and ice cover
Anthropogenic
emissions
Adaptation
Environmental
impacts
Society and Economy
Main drivers are
•economic growth
• technology
• population and
• governance
Non-climate change
stresses
Climate change
stresses
Feedbacks
Enhanced
greenhouse effect
Natural Systems
•Land use
•Food and water systems
•Ecosystems &biodiversity
•Animal and plant health
An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate
Change: 8. Immediate mitigation effect - reduced emissions
Feedbacks
Atmospheric
Concentrations
•Greenhouse gases
•Aerosols & precursors
Climate System
•Air and sea temperatures
•Precipitation
•Snow and ice cover
Mitigation
Adaptation
Environmental
impacts
Anthropogenic
emissions
Society and Economy
Main drivers are
•economic growth
• technology
• population and
• governance
Non-climate change
stresses
Climate change
stresses
Feedbacks
Enhanced
greenhoue effect
Natural Systems
•Land use
•Food and water systems
•Ecosystems &biodiversity
•Animal and plant health
An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate
Change: 9. mitigation then reduces the greenhouse effect and
local air pollution.
Feedbacks
Atmospheric
Concentrations
•Greenhouse gases
•Aerosols & precursors
Climate System
•Air and sea temperatures
•Precipitation
•Snow and ice cover
Mitigation
Adaptation
Environmental
impacts
Anthropogenic
emissions
Society and Economy
Main drivers are
•economic growth
• technology
• population and
• governance
Non-climate change
stresses
Climate change
stresses
Feedbacks
Enhanced
greenhouse effect
Natural Systems
•Land use
•Food and water systems
•Ecosystems &biodiversity
•Animal and plant health
An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate
Change: 10. mitigation also reduces climate change stresses
and finally reduces the needFeedbacks
to adapt.
Atmospheric
Concentrations
•Greenhouse gases
•Aerosols & precursors
Climate System
•Air and sea temperatures
•Precipitation
•Snow and ice cover
Mitigation
Adaptation
Environmental
impacts
Anthropogenic
emissions
Society and Economy
Main drivers are
•economic growth
• technology
• population and
• governance
Non-climate change
stresses
Climate change
stresses
Feedbacks
Enhanced
greenhouse effect
Natural Systems
•Land use
•Food and water systems
•Ecosystems &biodiversity
•Animal and plant health
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