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Brian H. Hurd, PhD, Professor
Dept. of Agricultural Economics & Agricultural Business
New Mexico State University
bhurd @ nmsu.edu
http://agecon.nmsu.edu/bhurd
“Assessing Costs and Benefits of Adaptation: Methods and Data”
First Regional Training Workshop – Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation
Bangkok, Thailand
11 Mar - 14 Mar 2013
Lec 2. Hydro-Economic Models in
Practice: Two Case Studies of
Model Design, Data and
Implementation
•
•
Case #1: Colorado River
Case #2: Rio Grande
Methods and Conceptual Approach
Model Basics
 Develop a schematic diagram of the watershed system
 Describes physical structure (tributaries, inflows, and
reservoirs
 Identifies and locates watershed services
 Show diversion points and instream uses
 Derive estimates for the model’s objective function
 Develop demand and supply curves for each service based on
water diversion or instream flow
 Describe model constraints
 Mass balance (upstream to downstream flow)
 Intertemporal storage in reservoirs
 Institutional flow restrictions
Colorado River Model (Upper Basin)
Colorado River Model (Lower Basin)
Outcomes: Colorado River
Watershed
 Projected hydrologic
and runoff changes
 Estimated changes
in runoff and
allocation in the
Lower Colorado
watershed
 Economic impacts
across the watershed
How Climate Change Could Alter
Colorado Watershed Runoff:
the driving data
Colorado Basin Runoff by Year by Scenario
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
ba sin inflow (KAF)
baseline
2.5c +7p
5.0c +7p
5.0c +15p
1.5c +15p
1.5c -10p
1.5c +7p
2.5c -10p
2.5c +15p
5.0c -10p
Modeled Runoff and Allocation
Changes in the Lower Colorado Basin
Percentage Change from
Baseline Climate
40%
20%
0%
[+1.5C +15%P]
[+2.5C +7%P]
[+5.0C]
-20%
-40%
-60%
Runoff
Agriculture
M&I
Colorado Basin Sectoral Impacts
Percentage Change from
Baseline Climate
100%
50%
0%
[+1.5C +15%P]
[+2.5C +7%P]
[+5.0C]
-50%
-100%
-150%
Runoff
Agriculture Salinity Damage
Total
Hydropower
Basin Results: Agriculture
Effect of Climate Change on Agricultural Welfare
Percentage Change from
Baseline Climate
20%
10%
0%
-10%
[+1.5C +15%P]
[+2.5C +7%P]
-20%
[+5.0C]
-30%
-40%
-50%
Colorado Missouri Delaware
Modeled Basins
A-F-C
Basin Results: Hydropower
Effect of Climate Change on Value of Hydropower Production
Percentage Change from
Baseline Climate
40%
20%
0%
[+1.5C +15%P]
-20%
[+2.5C +7%P]
[+5.0C]
-40%
-60%
-80%
Colorado Missouri Delaware
Modeled Basins
A-F-C
Basin Results: Total Welfare
Effect of Climate Change on Total Welfare
Percentage Change from
Baseline Climate
5%
0%
-5%
[+1.5C +15%P]
-10%
[+2.5C +7%P]
[+5.0C]
-15%
-20%
-25%
Colorado Missouri Delaware
Modeled Basins
A-F-C
Objectives:
(1) Estimate the impacts of climate
change on agricultural diversity of
the Upper Rio Grande basin and
(2) Estimate the system’s
adaptability to climatic changes
through a hydro-economic
framework.
Spatial Heterogeneity: Climate, Vegetation, Environment
Source: Enrigue Vivoni, AZ State Univ.
Rio Grande
HydroEconomic
Model
Schematic
Diagram
Rio Grande – Hydrology Model
Validation
Agricultural Irrigation Benefits
Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District Agriculture
Value Per Acre
500
400
300
Total Benefit
200
$
Marginal Benefit (Demand)
100
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-100
-200
Water Use (af/yr)
 Consumptive irrigation requirements rise with increased temperatures
 Agricultural water demands are increased
Urban Water Benefits
City of Albuquerque M&I
Value Per Household
12000
10000
8000
6000
Total Benefit
4000
$
Marginal Benefit (Demand)
2000
0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
-2000
-4000
-6000
Water Use (af/yr)
 Urban water demands are most directly affected by population changes
 Income increases are assumed to have little direct effect on water demand because
increased demand for water services is offset by increased water-use efficiency
Reservoir Recreation Benefits
Climate Scenarios
 Selected General
Circulation Models
(GCMs):

HadCM3 from Hadley
Center for Climate
Prediction and Research in
UK Met Office

CSIRO MK3.0 from
Common Wealth Scientific
and Industrial Research
Organization of Australia

GFDL0 from National
Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration’s (NOAA)
Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory
 All under A1B emissions
storyline
Population Growth Scenarios
 Population growth increases water demand
 Isolate climate change
Hydrologic Modeling Status and Results
Distribution of Annual Streamflow
Rio Grande Streamflow Cumulative Probability
1
0.9
0.8
Probability
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
30
80
130
180
230
280
330
380
Total Annual Basin Inflow (kaf)
Base
2030-Dry
2030-Mid
2030-Wet
2080-Dry
2080-Mid
2080-Wet
Streamflow Changes
 Streamflows were produced using WATBAL hydrologic model
 Conceptual rainfall-runoff model that works with the changes of temperature
and precipitation and easy to use model to assess climate change impacts on
river basins (Yates, 1996).
Climate Change and Crop Irrigation Productivity
 Shifted production function to the right due to higher Consumptive
Irrigation Requirement (CIR)
Results
 Changes in water allocation:
Crop Mix For San Luis Valley
Crop Mix For MRGCD
Crop Mix for EBID and EPAG
Crop Water Consumption Level
Crop Water Consumption Level
Crop Water Consumption Level
Economic Impacts
Marginal Value of Water
Conclusions
 Agriculture can lose big share of its water consumption losing almost a third under 2080
GFDL0 (driest scenario).
 At the same time the economic impacts of climate change on the whole economy can
sum up to $175 million (12.6% of the total net benefits).
 Recreational sector loses 67% (highest percentage-wise) and agricultural sector loses
$160 million (highest dollar-wise) under 2080 GFDL0.
 In 2030’s small grain hay and corn silage are loser crops losing more than 60% and 50% of
their production under 2030 GFDL0, while pecans are the winners.
 In 2080’s potato joins the group of loser crops losing 50% of their total production while
crops like pecans, green chile and onions are the winner crops losing less than 15% of
their production.
Merci’ Beaucoup!
Grazie
Gracias Thank You
Brian H. Hurd, PhD
Department of Agricultural Economics & Agricultural Business
Gerald Thomas Hall Rm. 350
New Mexico State University
Tel :
Email:
Web:
(575) 646-2674
[email protected]
http://agecon.nmsu.edu/bhurd