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Georgia Power Environmental Engineering Fellows at (and beyond) Georgia Tech Georgia Tech Objective of Georgia Power Fellowships Attract top notch graduate students to Tech Facilitate research in areas of interest to Georgia Power Educate students in areas of interest to Georgia Power for future employment Enhance communication between Georgia Power and Georgia Tech in the environmental areas Georgia Tech Past and Current Fellows Katie Wade (now at Sonoma Technologies) Continuing to conduct air quality studies with health applications Diane Ivy Miranda Lowe Yu Miyashita Georgia Tech Air Quality Studies in CEE: A Sampler Armistead (Ted) Russell, Georgia Power Professor Model Development Measurement Sensitivity analysis Air quality measurements 3-D Air quality models Model Application Policy / Health Macon EPD Monitor Contribution to Peak 8-hour Ozone (ppm) 0.045 C_GA NOX N_GA NOX ATL NOX: PT ATL NOX: AR+NR ATL NOX: MO BRANCH SCHERER MAC VOC MAC NOX: PT MAC NOX: AR+NR MAC NOX: MO 0.040 0.035 0.030 0.025 0.020 0.015 0.010 0.005 0.000 Siggraph Scientific Visualization Winner Aug. 13 (0.068) Aug. 14 (0.070) Aug. 15 (0.069) Aug. 16 (0.082) Aug. 17 (0.093) Aug. 18 (0.079) Source Impacts Aug. 19 (0.075) 7-day avg. (0.077) Date and 8-hour Ozone Concentration (ppmV) (www.ce.gatech.edu/~trussell) Georgia Institute of Technology Why A Sampler? Range of Georgia Power relevant (and supported) studies a bit too much for 15 minutes… Assessment of Spatial Aerosol Composition in Atlanta (ASACA) (GP funds) Fall Line Air Quality Study (EPD + GP/SC) Roadway Study (GP +EPA funds) ARIES (NIH, EPA, EPRI, SC, GP…; with Emory) (Prof. Mulholland) Source apportionment of PM in Georgia (GP + EPA) Impact of NE Blackout (GP funds) Satellite and aircraft data assimilation (NASA) Sources of organic carbon aerosol (EPA + GP/SC) PM & ozone in the Mexico-US border region (LAUSPAU) Air quality management of regional air pollution (EPA + RFF) Climate and Air Quality (EPA) Prescribed burn impacts and management Georgia Tech Why A Sampler? Range of Georgia Power relevant (and supported) studies a bit too much for 15 minutes… Assessment of Spatial Aerosol Composition in Atlanta (ASACA) (GP funds) Fall Line Air Quality Study (EPD + GP/SC) Roadway Study (GP +EPA funds) ARIES (NIH, EPA, EPRI, SC, GP…; with Emory) (Prof. Mulholland) Source apportionment of PM in Georgia (GP + EPA) Impact of NE Blackout (GP funds) Satellite and aircraft data assimilation (NASA) Sources of organic carbon aerosol (EPA + GP/SC) PM & ozone in the Mexico-US border region (LAUSPAU) Air quality management of regional air pollution (EPA + RFF) Climate and Air Quality (EPA) Prescribed burn impacts and management Georgia Tech Particulate Matter Concern due to health and visibility impacts Complex mixture of solid and liquid particles suspended in the ambient air Size classifications Atlanta in non-attainment “super-coarse” “coarse” (PM10) “fine” (PM2.5) “ultrafine” > 10μm < 10μm < 2.5μm < 0.1μm Many sources Many chemical species: BRIG, New Jersey (m easured) BRIG, New Jersey (m odeled) BRIG, New Jersey (m easured) Sulfate Nitrate Ammonium Organic Carbon Elemental Carbon Soils and crustals SHRO, North Carolina (m easured) Ozone (a gas) also of concern SHRO, North Carolina (m odeled) Georgia Tech Health effects Atlanta is in non-attainment ASACA (GP funded) System of four monitoring locations around Atlanta Continuous PM2.5 Daily PM2.5 composition “Continuous” since 1999 Designed to Complement SEARCH Provide unprecedented spatial, compositional and temporal coverage in Atlanta • SEARCH+STN+ASACA Provide data for • Health (ARIES) • Model evaluation • Targets of opportunity (Fire!) Student (UG & Grad) training Georgia Tech ASACA Capturing a Forest Fire 160 February 80 40 0 2/27/2007 3 Fires appear to have greater impact than emissions inventories suggest Rich in OC, not EC Aging increases water solubility 2 EC OC K+ (x5) NH4+ NO3SO42- 20 15 10 1 5 0 0 2/27/07 Georgia Tech 3/1/07 3/3/07 3 3/2/2007 mg/m 3/1/2007 Great opportunity to diagnose forest fire impacts ASACA composition data 2/28/2007 Simulated PM plume Bad for health, but 3000 acre planned burned 70 km SE of Atlanta Winds shift PM levels climb from <10mg m-3 to over 150 in two hours Ozone jumps 20 ppb 3 2007 Observed PM Concentrations 120 mg/m 28th, Hourly TEOM Air Quality Modeling Provide a virtual laboratory to better understand atmospheric dynamics and emission control impacts Air Quality Goals Air Quality/Health Impacts Control s Chemistry Pollutant Distributions Air Quality Model Emissions Meteorology Applications Assess impacts of planned controls on attainment • Fall line air quality study (FAQS) Impact of climate on air quality Understand how much the 2003 NE blackout impacted air quality Georgia Tech Air Quality Model Application Domain 36-km 12-km 4-km Georgia Tech Impact of Planned Controls: 2000 vs. 2007 Planned emissions reductions lead to about a 10-20 ppb ozone reduction: Can we figure out which sources continue to be main contributors to nonattainment? Georgia Tech Residual ozone from Atlanta sources apportioned by NOx category Contribution to Contribution Atlanta Ozone (ppm) (ppm) Atlantato ozone 0.016 A x PT 2nd order cross 0.014 OR x PT On-road x Area 2nd order Area 2ord PT 2ord Crosssens. 2nd order self 0.012 On-road 2ord 0.010 Point 0.008 Area 0.006 1st order 1st order Sum of parts 0.004 On-road 0.002 0.000 Atlanta NOx: Aggregate Atlanta NOX Combined Atlanta NOX by Category Atlanta NOx: By Category 65% Linear Georgia Tech Atlanta MSA, 8-hour ozone, Aug. 13-19, 2000 (Year 2007 emissions) Climate Impacts on Air Quality Smog tends to get worse when it is warm… Climate change is expected to make things warmer… So, is air quality going to get worse? Complexity: Emissions will change, so what are the relative impacts (controls vs. climate change) Georgia Tech Emission Changes 2050 no controls 6.0E+04 SO2 4.0E+04 2050 no Now controls 2001 3.0E+04 2.0E+04 6.0E+04 2050_np 2050 4.0E+04 2.0E+04 1.0E+04 0.0E+00 1.5E+04 NOx 8.0E+04 tons/day tons/day 5.0E+04 ws pl mw ne se 0.0E+00 1.5E+05 us ws pl ne se us ne se us VOCs NH3 1.0E+04 tons/day tons/day mw 5.0E+03 0.0E+00 1.0E+05 5.0E+04 0.0E+00 ws pl mw ne se us Georgia Tech ws pl mw What “we” have done… Simulated how climate will impact air quality using large scale, 3D air quality models NASA GISS IPCC A1B MM5 MCIP SMOKE (w/ 2001 EI) Focused on changes expected in about 2050 SMOKE (w/ 2050 EI) CMAQ-DDM Included climate change impacts with and without emissions changes And the answer is… Georgia Tech Impact of Potential Climate Change and Planned Controls on Ozone and PM2.5 Southeast Max8hrO3 (PPbV) 80.0 60.0 standard 25.0 Summers 2000-2002 Summers 2049-2051 Summers 2049-2051_np 2001 2050 2050_np 20.0 15.0 40.0 10.0 20.0 5.0 PM2.5 (ug/m^3) 100.0 0.0 - 0.0 Controls will significantly lower PM and Ozone 4th MDA8hrO3 PM2.5 -Ozone: 3-40 (maximum 8-hr) ppbV lower in 2050 (6-40%), PM~ 40% -Climate has a more limited impact - Climate has a more limited impact -Ozone: +1ppbV, PM can go up or down Georgia Tech Blackout! Assessing the Impacts of the 2003 NE Blackout August 14, 2003 : Large scale blackout begins over parts of the Northeast, Midwest, and Ontario U. Maryland analyzes flight data, suggests drop in power plant emissions led to: 50% decrease in ozone @PA site 90% decrease in sulfate Challenges models to use this data set to evaluate ability to capture such changes Ozone EPRI analysis suggests not so fast GIT jumps in… Ozone impact 4% • Large fraction from automobiles Sulfate impact 20% Much of the UM impact due to strange trajectory PM2.5 • Came over Canada, not Ohio River Valley Georgia Tech Questions? Georgia Tech