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2009 Advanced Training Workshop on Southeast Asia
Regional Climate Change and Health Issues
A presentation of Research Proposal
By
Group 2
Inspired by love, Motivated by passion
Climate Types
Ecological
Epidemiological
Vulnerabilities
Research Title
Linking
Linking Climate Types with Ecological and
Epidemiological Vulnerabilities in Southeast Asia
CONTENT
• Research Team
•
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•
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•
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Grounding the Issue
Setting the Objectives
Research Framework
Conceptualising the Approach
Expected Outcome and Relevance
Research Schedule
Estimated Budget
Principal Investigators on Sites
Research Team
Nidi Nagabhatla
Yi-Chen Wang
Northeast Monsoon
October-March
Nidhi (Cambodia)
Landscape Ecology
Hung (Vietnam)
Air Pollution
Ramzah Dambul
Nguyen Tri Quang Hung
Srithaya Ridchuayrod
Srithaya (Thailand)
Water Pollution
Ramzah (Malaysia)
Synoptic Climatology
Yi-Chen (Singapore)
Biogeography
Southweast Monsoon
May-September
Grounding the Issue
Precipitation
Temperature
Social
Climatic
Elements
Relationship
Synoptic
Circulation
Understanding the Climate
Features
Behaviours
Driving Causes
(climate/weather)
Climate
Change
Human
Ecology
Ecology
Epidemiology
Investigating the Linkage
Distribution
Patterns
Trends
Diagnostic
Mechanism
VULNERABILITY
Projection &
Prediction
Assessing the Impacts
Sensitivity
Vulnerability
Symptoms
(Ecosystem Health)
Planning
Setting the Objectives
• To establish the linking relationships between
climate types and ecological-epidemiological
aspects
• To assess the established relationships in terms
of sensitivity and vulnerability
• To project future changes (climate types) and
predict potential intensification of the impacts
(sensitivity and vulnerability)
Research Framework
TASKS
INPUTS
METHOD
OUTPUT
Level 1: Classifying the climate
modes based on synoptic
circulation
Sea Level Pressure (SLP)
 Over the Southeast Asia
PCA
Correlation
Cluster analysis
Climate Types
Level 2: Relating the Climate
Types with ground parameters:
- Flood, Fisheries, Acidification,
etc
Epidemiological and ecological
variables
 Water quality, fish
production, mortality
Time-series analysis
Correlation, regression
Descriptive statistics
Spatial analysis
Thresholds (sensitivity &
vulnerability)
Algorithm for modeling
Level 3: Projecting future
scenarios under the change
climate influences
Reproducing the Climate Types
using GCM (based on various
scenarios)
PCA
Correlation
Cluster analysis
Future Climate Types
(frequency over time)
Level 4: Predicting future
sensitivity and vulnerability
Future Climate Types
(frequency over time)
Time-series analysis
Correlation, regression
Descriptive statistics
Spatial analysis (GIS)
Sensitivity and
vulnerability in the
future
Level 5: Communicating
information and findings to
stakeholders (policy-maker,
society)
Degree of sensitivity
Trends, patterns and
distributions of vulnerability
Descriptive statistics
Probability analysis
SWOT analysis
Strategic and action
plans for mitigation and
adaptation
Conceptualising the Approach
Climate Influences
Linkage
Ecological &
Epidemiological Impacts
Trends
Patterns
Distribution
Climate Types
Ecosystem Health
Sensitivity
Fisheries
Mortality
Vulnerability
Acidification
Flooding
Significance & Relevance
Dealing with These Challenges
• Diagnosed regional vulnerability under
different climatic scenarios
• Improved understanding of local coping
mechanisms and adaptive responses
• Strengthened capacity of stakeholders for
strategic and action plans
Climate Change v.s. Health: Established
Physical
Chemical
Biological
Bio-Chemical
Bio-physical
Direct Impacts
Temperature CVD, RTD
Vector
Expanding
Tick-Borne
Disease
TemperatureRelated
Disease
V
Indirect Impacts
Ozone, UV
rays, Air
Quality
Dermatitis
Eyes disease;
CVD; RTD
Water
Precipitation
Drought
Flooding ;
nature
disaster
Ecological
Food
V
Pollution
Fungus
Expanding
RTD
Food
Insufficient
Food safety ;
gene mutation
Vector
expanding
vector-borne
disease
Food safety
Food
insufficient;
food safety
Water-borne
disease
Mental health;
Traffic
accident
Gene
mutation
Food safety
From Prof Jenny Su’s slide (Source: American Journal of Public Health 2008)
Research Schedule
Total Months Allocated
Every Segment Represents 4-month Period (Month 1  36)
1-4
RESEARCH SPECIFIC TASKS
5-8
912
1316
1720
2124
2528
2932
3336
Grounding the issues (i.e. literature review
and establishing the comprehensive
framework)
4
Gathering and validating data
8
Classifying the Climate Types
8
Analysing the site-specific data and
establishing time-series
8
Investigating the relationship between
Climate Types and site-specific ground
variables
8
Assessing the sensitivity and vulnerability
16
Establishing various linkage algorithms for
various ground variables
8
Simulating future scenarios and predicting
the changing sensitivity and vulnerability
8
Outlining strategic plans for mitigation and
adaptation actions (workshop, publication)
8
Estimated Budget (3 Years Project)
ITEMS
US $
1
Human resource (wages)
110,000.00
2
Training, workshop, seminar, publication
20,000.00
3
Administration & coordination
20,000.00
4
Traveling & accommodation
20,000.00
5
Purchase of documents, data, equipments
20,000.00
6
Secretariat & stationary items
10,000.00
TOTAL
200,000.00
Common goal and aspiration….
.. brought us all here, together.
From the bottom
of our hearts,
THANK YOU!