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Adaptation to CC in African Forests UNDP Accra Forest Model Emission Scenario Climate Outcome Ecosystem Model Timber Response Carbon Response Economic Outcome Ecosystem Model • Predicts boundaries of biomes (grassland, forest, savannah, desert) • Predicts fire • Predicts NPP • Predicts carbon storage • Predicts how all of the above factors shift with climate change scenario Timber Model Volume Age Shape of Volume Function • Almost all life forms are S shaped • Implies percentage growth rate falls over time (with age) • Average growth rises over time to maximum and then falls Percentage growth % Growth Interest rate Age Economic Model of Timber • Maximize present value of timber, W • W=P*V(A,T)exp(-r*A)-C/(1-exp(-rA)) • Optimal age A, maximizes W, and depends on temperature, T, and C is cost of plantation Climate Change Effects • Climate change will move boundaries of forest (suitable land) • Climate change will alter NPP- growth of trees • Climate change will alter fire frequency Adaptation • Harvest trees early if vulnerable to increased chance of fire or if slow growth • Plant new tree species if will do better during lifetime of tree • Plant only in land suitable for trees (adapt to changing boundaries of biome) • More (less) intensity (fertilizer other inputs) if more (less) productive Suppose CC Reduces Growth Original % Growth New Interest rate Age Including Carbon Storage • Carbon is captured in body and roots of tree • Trees take carbon out of atmosphere • Trees help mitigate greenhouse gas problem • Carbon is proportional to volume Impact of including carbon • If farmers are given an incentive to store carbon, they will include this incentive into their harvest and planting decision • Carbon payments make forests more profitable (expand forest area) and make longer rotation ages more profitable Examine case study • • • • • • • Loblolly pine Examine timber alone Add carbon benefit Introduce CC on timber Introduce CC on timber plus carbon Assume P=$.15/bdft, C=100, R=.04 Assume carbon price=$5/ton/yr