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CLIMATE CHANGE SYMPOSIUM PART I PANELS: WATER IMPACTS URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS Symposium Time Table 9:00 – 11:55 A.M. 5 minutes (9:00-9:05) 15 minutes (9:05-9:20) ASCE President’s Welcome (David Mongan) Moderator Remarks (George Bugliarello) 55 minutes (9:20-10:15) WATER IMPACTS PANEL 10 minutes (9:20-9:30) 20 minutes (9:30-9:50) 20 minutes (9:50-10:10) 15 minutes (10:10-10:25) 10 minutes (10:25-10:35) Panel Host Remarks (Leslie Ewing) Peter Rogers Walter Vergara Discussion BREAK (continued) Symposium Time Table (continued) 55 minutes (10:35-11:40) URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT PANEL 10 minutes (10:35-10:45) 20 minutes (10:45-11:05) 20 minutes (11:05-11:25) 15 minutes (11:25-11:40) Panel Host Remarks (Brian Roberts) Darren Wachtler Scott L. Douglass Discussion 15 minutes (11:40-11:55) GENERAL DISCUSSION Moderator Remarks (George Bugliarello) Focus of the Panels: ENGINEERING CONSEQUENCES World Population 1. 2. 3. The Urban Explosion 50% of world population live in cities, from 5% in 1900 70% of world population live in areas exposed to: Floods, storm surges, sea level changes All increasingly impacted by climate change Rapid growth of megacities (>10 million inhabitants) Cities explosively impact environment and climate Water Tables Heat Islands Atmospheric Pollution Footprints Stormwater Management in Expanding Urban Areas ……… Increasing concerns about urban sustainability Climate Changes Examples of expected temperature impacts: 1°C Change •Disappearance of Arctic glaciers •Weakening of density-driven Atlantic thermohaline circulation 2°C Change •Less water (up to 30%) in Mediterranean and South Africa •Irreversible melting of Greenland icesheet Climate Changes [e.g., J. Flückiger, Science, Aug. 1, 2008] 1. 2. 3. Large climate shifts can occur within 1-3 yrs (e.g., Greenland ice) Models/simulations of climate shifts show shifts considerably slower than observed ones Possible causes of discrepancies: Focus on changes in ocean circulation, temperature, but neglect of wind patterns, atmospheric circulation,… Importance of precursor events e.g., in North Atlantic, changes in N2O concentrations Consequences 1. 2. 3. Urgency of addressing the impacts of Urban Population Explosion Rapid Climate Changes Both impacts interact Urbanization Climate Change No precedents on which to base our models Consequences (continued) 4. Imperatives: NEW MODELS (epistemological models with broader inputs) NEW APPROACHES 5. Assessment of validity of new models and approaches in comparison with real occurrences, iteratively