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Peak Oil, Petrol Prices, Climate
Change & Rural Communities
Dr Jim Barson
Convenor of the Health Sector
Working Group ASPO-Australia
ASPO-Australia
Introduction
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Overview
The Rural Economy
Transport
Travel & Tourism
Industry &Employment
Population
Health Service Delivery
ASPO-Australia
ASPO-Australia
ASPO-Australia
General Observations
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Prediction is hard, especially about the
future!
Peak oil will happen in stages T1-T4
The global situation will set the stage
Australia is lucky with large reserves of
natural gas, although not where we want
it. Potential for mitigation
Climate Change is a lot scarier than
Peak Oil and they have a common
solution set
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The Rural Economy
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The rural economy could behave
differently to the cities
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Relocalisation could be seen as a natural
response to ↓ mobility?
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This might reverse the population drift to
the cities
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The Rural Economy
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Rural areas have some
advantages
Capacity for self sufficiency
 Rural and regional towns could
function very well with reduced
car transport
 Identity and sense of community
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The Rural Economy
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Rural areas have some
disadvantages
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Fuel prices will be higher with a wider
spread, instability and possible
shortages
Starting from a lower income base
Less diversity of industry to start with
Services stretched by distance
 Road maintenance
 Waste collection
 Power, water etc.
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Employment & Business in
Rural Communities
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Some industrial, transport and tourism
based employment will likely decrease
Some local employment will likely
increase
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Local small scale (+/-organic) food
production will be competitive
Local ingenuity & innovation
Repair, reuse, recycle, reduce
Local services
Some services will have to decentralise
and expand locally eg. hospitals
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Employment & Business in
Rural Communities
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Local and seasonal food will be cost
competitive
Local business will be more competitive
Possibly less ‘Big Box’ retail
‘Captive Population’ to support small
retailers
New technology business opportunities
will arise as mobility becomes more
expensive.
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Farming Industry
Employment
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Industrial farming is very energy
intensive
Fuel
 Fertiliser
 Chemicals
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Farming with less petroleum will
employ a lot more labour.
Cuba is an interesting case study
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Tourism
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Huge employer
What will happen to overall numbers?
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International visitors (Airfares ? ↑)
Overall economy (? ↓)
Local tourism ↓ with fuel prices ↑
What will happen to short stay B&B ?
Will there be an increase in the longer
stay accommodation?
What will happen to the holiday home
market?
Local strategies in marketing and
mobility will be important
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Transport & Travel
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Railways are vitally important as they
very fuel efficient and should be rebuilt
and expanded as a matter of urgency
Road transport will probably decline
unless CNG and LNG come on stream
soon
Public and active transport should
increase
Small communities will benefit from
being linked with minibuses, bike trails
and walking tracks
Community ride share programs
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Transport & Travel
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Sustained high and continuously
rising fuel prices will impact on
mobility and redefine boundaries
Urban
Urban-Fringe
Regional
Rural
Remote
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Transport & Travel
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Personal mobility will probably
decline
If car ownership declines
 ?Only the wealthy elite
 ?Impact on social cohesion
 ?Anti-democratic
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Population in Rural and
Regional towns
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Life without a car will be possible
 Work
 Education
 Food
 Fun
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Local food and industry
Sense of community
Livable, walkable scale
Car free existence possible
Critical population for markets, skills,
infrastructure
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Population in Rural and
Regional towns
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How big is big enough?
How big is too big?
‘Goldilocks Solution’
Zoning to prevent sprawl
Development as linked self sufficient
villages
Folke, G. Ruralisation- Integrating
Settlements and Agriculture to provide
Sustainability
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Health Service Delivery
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World class system
Big problems on the horizon
Costs unsustainable on current trends
Aging population
Unreasonable expectations
Peak oil timing could not be worse
Things have to change
Who gets what, where, when, how, and
at whose expense?
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Peak Oil and Healthcare
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Deterioration of the economy
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Unsustainable complexity
Decreased mobility for patients and staff
Increased costs for all material inputs
Need to decrease use of disposables
Logistics of drugs and essential goods
Service delivery
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Government
Business
Food, linen, waste
Outsourcing reversal
Will the private practice model of medicine
survive Peak Oil?
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Peak Oil and Rural
Healthcare
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Redefining boundaries
Geographic mobility
 Procedural complexity
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Increased role for small hospitals
Increased demand on country
doctors
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Training and support
Reassessment of risk
management
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Some Ideas for
Healthcare Delivery
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High speed broadband
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Live in facilities for staff
Mobile service delivery
Support for local industries
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‘Stranded’ Patient ↔ Consultant
‘Stranded’ GP ↔ Consultant
Generic drugs
Generic equipment
Health funding priorities
Smart card fuel rationing
Rationing of treatments
Community discussion and comment
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Things to do as a
Community
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Talk about Peak Oil and Climate
Change
Be frugal with fuel
Improve efficiency
Continue to work on alternative
fuels such biodiesel, CNG, LNG
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Things to do as
Individuals
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Get out of debt, economise, think of how you
might live on half your income
Move to the non-discretionary side of the
economy, aim to satisfy needs not wants
Reduce, reuse, repair, recycle
Produce as much as you can of what you need
and something of value to others
Get to know the neighbours, share skills and
resources, nobody can do everything but
everyone can do something.
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ASPO-Australia