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Illinois Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Inventory and
Projections Update
Meeting of the Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group
130 West Mason Street, Springfield, IL
April 3, 2007
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
GHG Inventory Addenda
• Detailed greenhouse gas emissions of Illinois sectors
• Electricity generation, Transportation, Industry and Land
use change and forestry
• Greenhouse gas emissions in other Midwest states
• Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin
• Greenhouse gas emissions in top interstate electricity
exporting states
• Alabama, Arizona, Indiana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania,
Texas, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
Projections updated
• Biofuels updated to reflect a range of assumptions around the
success of cellulosic ethanol
– Scenario A: 35.7% corn ethanol, 11.9% cellulosic ethanol, 2.4%
biodiesel
– Scenario B: 41.6% corn ethanol, 6% cellulosic ethanol, 2.4%
biodiesel
– Scenario C: 47.6% corn ethanol, 0% cellulosic ethanol, 2.4%
biodiesel
• EIP IGCC and CCS components incorporated into projections
– Optimistic: 3 IGCC power plants w/ 50% CCS, displacing 2 new
plants and 400MW of existing capacity; plus 3 CTL plants (2 w/
50% CCS) Displacing 120,000 BBL/day of fuel
– Pessimistic: 3 IGCC power plants no CCS, displacing 2 new plants
and 400MW of existing capacity; plus 3 CTL plants (1 w/ 50%
CCS) Displacing 120,000 BBL/day of fuel
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
Pessimistic technology scenario still
achieves GHG reductions
Illinois GHG Emission Trends with Energy Plan Reductions 1990-2020
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
1990 Levels
100,000
EIP Technology Optimistic
EIP Technology Pessimistic
50,000
Acual and Projected Emissions
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
2010
2015
2020
Cellulosic ethanol can augment GHG reductions
GHG Reductions from EIP Biofuels provisions under 3 scenarios
100% of biofuels consumed in-state
GHG Lifecycle Emissions Reductions in 2020
in-state reductions
out-of-state reductions
total reductions
Scenario A
7,754,256
3,015,544
10,769,800
Scenario B
6,192,423
2,408,164
8,600,587
Scenario C
4,604,118
1,790,490
6,394,608
50% of biofuels consumed in-state
GHG Lifecycle Emissions Reductions in 2020
in-state reductions
out-of-state reductions
total reductions
Scenario A
3,877,128
6,892,672
10,769,800
Scenario B
3,096,211
5,504,376
8,600,587
Scenario C
2,302,059
4,092,549
6,394,608
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
Discussion
Questions and Comments
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group