Download Hu Junfeng - Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Analysis of CO2 Abatement Strategies in
China’s Electricity Sector
Hu Junfeng (胡军峰)
North China Electric Power University
July, 2010
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Background
Research Objectives
Main Partners
Analysis Framework
Completed Research
Ongoing Research
Future Research
1. Background
Globally, CO2 emissions were 29.2 billion tons
in 2006 (EIA).
 Global CO2 emissions need to be reduced to
10 billion tons per year by 2050 to mitigate
climate change.
 China’s share of global CO2 emissions has
rapidly increased, from 8% in 1980 to 21% in
2006; China has replaced the United States as
the world’s largest CO2 emitter.

1. Background
The Chinese government set an objective to
reduce the CO2 intensity of GDP per capita by
40-45% over 2005 levels by 2020.
 The electricity sector is China’s largest CO2
emitter (40% of gross CO2 emissions), and
should be specially regulated.
 Reduction of CO2 emissions in the electricity
sector should include both the demand and
the supply side.

1. Background


Supply-side Mitigation Measures
 Increase the share of non-fossil energy
 Increase the efficiency of fossil fuel generation
 Capture and sequester carbon from fossil fuel
generation
 Reduce transmission losses
Demand-side Mitigation Measures
 Increase demand-side efficiency (e.g., efficiency power
plants)
 Adjust industry structure (e.g., through differential
pricing)
 Develop distributed generation (e.g., PV and CHP)
2. Research Objectives




What policy portfolios can best reduce CO2
intensity in the electricity sector?
How much could electricity sector CO2 emissions
be reduced by 2020?
How much should the electricity industry, and
society, pay to reduce CO2 emissions intensity by
2020?
What could electricity sector CO2 reductions
contribute to the national CO2 intensity goal?
3. Main Partners

Government
State Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERC)
 Climate Change Department, NDRC
 State Administration of Taxation
 Ministry of Finance
 Ministry of Industry and Information Technology


International Organizations
Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)
 World Bank


Energy and Environmental Economics (E3)
4. Analysis Framework
Non-fossil fuel generation
Fossil fuel
generation
CO2 emissions
Electricity sector CO2 mitigation policies
Economy-wide CO2 emissions
Macroeconomy
Distribution
Demand
Transmission
5. Completed Research







A Comparison of Electricity Sector CO2 Emissions
between China and the U.S. (2008)
Benefit-Cost Analysis of Differential Pricing Policy
(2008)
Benefit-Cost Analysis of “Closing Small Power
Plants” Policy (2009)
Development of Wind Power in China (2009)
Electricity Sector Supply Planning during the 12th
Five-Year Plan (2010)
Generation Costs in Electricity Sector (2010)
Adjustments to the Electricity Sector’s
Accounting System (2010)
6. Ongoing Research
Relationship between electricity sector CO2
intensity and cost
 Macroeconomic impacts of CO2 emission
reduction policies in the electricity sector
 Scenarios for electric vehicle development
 Models for electrical vehicle charging stations
 Allocation scenarios for a carbon tax in China

7. Future Research









LCA for different generating technologies
Renewable energy integration, including required
reserve margins
Regional transmission system integration
Models for transmission-distribution unbundling
Smart grid economics
System design for a carbon tax
System design for carbon cap and trade
Electric vehicle integration
Intelligent transportation
谢谢！Thank you!
Comments Welcome
Hu Junfeng (胡军峰)
North China Electric Power University
[email protected]