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Climate change and European islands Dr. Eman Calleja Ph.D. Islands and Small States Institute 1 Structure of my talk 1 Why European islands? 2 Diversity of threats facing the four island regions 3 Identify threats common to islands 4 Implications and need for further research 2 Why European islands? 3 Four different island regions 4 Mediterranean islands • The most populated of the four island regions • Has the highest number of tertiary research institutions • The biggest climate change related threat facing the region • More likely to come from a lengthening of the dry season through a decrease in summer rainfall, than a decrease in annual rainfall • A drying trend has been observed across many islands • Demand has already outstripped supply of freshwater in the more populated islands • A northward expansion of the arid regime is expected 5 • Will lead to salt water intrusion into fresh water aquifers • Smaller islands are particularly vulnerable • Lack of water resources could lead to conflicts between water users • Lack of sufficient water resources • Tourist numbers in vulnerable smaller islands might need to be restricted • Hotter summers that could scare northern European tourists • Water deficits, soil salinisation and higher temperatures • Adaptation needed: through water storage and use of reclaimed water 6 Macaronesian islands • The biggest climate change related threat facing the region • An inversion of the trade winds would affect the relict Laurel forests • Lower lying eastern canaries at risk from sea level rise • Shift in trade winds to east - west could bring tropical diseases and pests from Africa • Risk to agriculture and public health 7 Baltic islands • Hundreds of islands belonging to 6 EU member states • At least 20 are larger than 150km2 and contain populations of between 1,000 and 80,000 people • Milder conditions and longer growing season • Improvement in conditions for crop production and extension of cultivable areas • Evidence exists of an increase in coastal erosion in various islands • Reduction in winter sea ice and increase in wave height exacerbates problem 8 North Atlantic and Arctic islands • Marine species include fish stocks and cetaceans • Others include bird populations decreasing in various islands • Could affect fisheries and ecotourism sectors in these isolated islands • Milder conditions and longer growing season • Improvement in conditions for crop production and extension of cultivable areas • Milder conditions for grazing animals • Opportunities to grow new crops and extend cultivation of others 9 • Leads to increased coastal erosion and damage to infrastructure • Isolated island communities at risk from being cut off during more frequent storm events • Leads to loss of fishing days and shipping to and from islands • Erosion of coastal sand dunes and barrier islands during severe storms increased vulnerability to coastal infrastructure • Locals facing increased insurance premiums • Social science studies have shown that locals feel the need for adaptation • Disagreement with central government and island populations on who should administer adaptation funds 10 Island specific vulnerabilities? • Islands important centers of biodiversity • Island species often cannot shift their range unlike continental species • High altitude species are at particular risk, since they might have nowhere to go. • Natural corridors for migration are often not available due to intensive land use practices on islands • Habitat specialists, species with a restricted distribution and endemic species are the most vulnerable • Islands have a high coastline to landmass ratio, exposing a greater proportion of their territory to SLR • Most European islands do not have access to their own financial resources but depend on central governments • Salinisation of groundwater in the Mediterranean • Cost of adaptation is often higher in islands than in continental areas due to higher coast/land ratio and greater vulnerability to impacts • Coastal erosion in Atlantic and Baltic islands • Vulnerable to extreme storm events affecting coastal infrastructure and connectivity to the island • Islands are exposed to disproportionate costs of impacts from SLR and extreme storm events • Many European island residents have a lower GDP, implying a greater cost per capita for private adaptation • Remote islands with small populations are the most vulnerable 11 12 Need for further research 13 Thanks for your attention Dr. Eman Calleja [email protected] 14