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www.medicalvoices.org Presents: Isaac Golden PhD The Safety and Effectiveness of Homœoprophylaxis Compared to Vaccination This vaccine webinar series is paid for as a community service by Homefirst Natural Pharm Source www.homefirst.com The Safety and Effectiveness of Homœoprophylaxis Compared to Vaccination Dr Isaac Golden PhD Business Manager – Academic Operations Endeavour College of Natural Health Unresolved Questions Agreement about 1 Protection? 2 Vaccine Safety 3 Vaccine Efficacy 4 HP Safety 5 HP Efficacy General Details ? S/T X L/T ? X Decision Making Flowchart IMMUNISATION? GENERAL Safety DISEASE SPECIFIC Efficacy VACCINATION Not Toxic HOMŒOPROPHYLAXIS Varies Safety Potentially Toxic Efficacy 75%–95% Safety Efficacy Not Toxic 90.4% Evidence of the Efficacy of Homœoprophylaxis 1. 1798 Scarlet Fever – Germany – 100’s 2. 1998 Meningococcal Meningitis – Brazil 65,826 children (23,539 control group) 3. 2007 (2008) Leptospirosis – Cuba – 2,308,562 ; (2,212,000) people 4. 1985 to 2004 Common Diseases – Australia – 2,342 annual responses The Cuban Experience • On October November 2007, three provinces of the eastern region of Cuba were affected by strong rainfalls causing widespread floods severe damage to sanitary and health systems. The risk of leptospirosis infection was raised extremely dangerous levels with about 2 million of peoples exposed to potentially contaminated water. Copyright Dr Isaac Golden, 2009 6 • The Finlay Institute prepared a leptospira nosode 200 CH using 4 circulating strains and following international quality standards. A multidisciplinary team travelled to the affected regions to conduct the massive administration of the nosode. Coordinated action with public health system infrastructures allowed the administration of a preventive treatment. Copyright Dr Isaac Golden, 2009 7 • Prevention consisted of two doses (7- 9 days apart) of the nosode to about 2.4 million of people (4.8 million doses). The coverage of the intervention rose up to 95% percent of total population of the three provinces at risk. • The epidemiology surveillance after the intervention showed a dramatic decrease of morbidity two weeks after and a reduction to zero mortality of hospitalized patients. The number of confirmed leptospirosis cases remains at low levels, and below the expected levels according with the trends and rain regimens. Copyright Dr Isaac Golden, 2009 8 A reinforcing application of 4,500,000 doses was given in 2008 after the hit of the hurricane IKE but using the nosode potentised to 10 MC. Strict epidemiologic surveillance was carried out on the targeted provinces. Up to date results are presented below. Copyright Dr Isaac Golden, 2009 9 Leptospirosis Cases 2005 to 2008 450 400 350 300 250 IR Cases RC cases 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 Some Other Measures of the Effectiveness of Homœoprophylaxis Year 1907 1950 1963 1974 Researcher Length Numbers Eaton < 1 year 2,806 Taylor-Smith < 1 year 82 Gutman 1 year Castro & Nogeira 3 months 385 HP 18,000 Not 6,340 Effectiveness % 97.5 100.0 86.0 86.1 1987 English 1987 Fox 1998 Mroninski et al 2 years 694 87.0 – 91.5 5 years 61 82.0 – 95.0 6/12 months HP 65,826 Not 23,539 95.0 - 91.0 2004 Golden 15+ yrs 2,342 90.4 HP EFFICACY • VE = ARU – ARV x 100 ARU Disease Whooping Cough Measles Mumps VE = Vaccine Efficacy ARU = Attack Rate Unvaccinated ARV = Attack Rate Vaccinated Attack Rate, Attack Rate, Unvaccinated % HP % Efficacy of HP % 85.0 11.7 86.2 90.0 70.0 9.0 5.9 90.0 91.6 Safety of Long-Term HP 15 Year Study (2,342) General Health Survey (781) 1. Short term safety Long term safety of HP only 1. Absolute safety of HP only Odds ratio < 1 for every condition studied: 2. Relative safety of HP only (P = Chi squared probability) Safest for statistically significant results 3. Accumulated parental rankings of general health of their child; HP only is associated with the highest level of health over all rankings. Reactions to 1.5% of doses Reactions typically brief and mild 2. Long term safety General Comments by parents re: general health of child – 92.3% positive; 7.7% negative Condit- Measure ion: GP ment Diagnoses Asthma Method HP-only Vaccines General only only Nothing Odds Ratio 0.124 1.89 0.49 0.69 Chi Test P 0.0006 0.0007 0.13 6.5E-40 0.239 1.76 0.225 0.665 Chi Test P 0.0097 0.006 0.025 6.5E-40 Ear/ Odds Ratio 0.703 1.517 0.599 0.401 Hearing Chi Test P 0.364 0.04 0.282 9.4E-41 Allergies Odds Ratio 0.307 1.518 0.446 0.608 Chi Test P 0.038 0.061 0.171 5.8E-40 Behavi- Odds Ratio 0.541 0.784 1.675 0.784 Chi Test P 0.055 0.613 0.049 1.2E-40 Eczema Odds Ratio our (a) Predicted and observed vaccine effects All Diagnoses GP Diagnoses Condition Measurement HP only Vaccination only HP only Vaccination only Asthma Odds Ratio 0.117 1.75 0.124 1.89 Chi Test P 0.0004 0.0025 0.0006 0.0007 Odds Ratio 0.382 1.315 0.239 1.76 Chi Test P 0.0146 0.121 0.0097 0.006 Ear/Hearing Odds Ratio 0.917 1.149 0.703 1.517 Chi Test P 0.792 0.459 0.364 0.04 Odds Ratio 0.550 1.220 0.307 1.518 Chi Test P 0.074 0.239 0.038 0.061 Odds Ratio 0.446 0.869 0.541 0.784 Chi Test P 0.170 0.593 0.055 0.613 Eczema Allergies Behaviour The Japanese Experience Year: Period: 1970-1974 61 months 1975-1981 1981-1984 79 months 40 months Type of vaccine First given Whole cell 3-5 months Whole cell 24 months Acellular 24 months Doses (Million) 25.1 19.8 20.4 S.I.D. 11 0 0 Other Deaths 26 3 2 Other Reactions 102 39 17 Percentage 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 MMR DPT Developmental Learning Autism/poor interaction AD(H)D type problems Anxiety/stress/bed Epilespy Sleep and associated Other neurological Other behavioural Headaches/Migraines Allergies Sinus/nose Throat/neck Asthma Recurring Other respiratory Ear/hearing problems GIT problems Arthritic/rheumatic Skin problems Screaming/continual Weight loss/gain Fevers Listless/energy Other problems Acute reactions to Comparative Analysis of the DPT and MMR Vaccines COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS: DPT , MMR Diseases Comparative Analysis of Disease Groupings 60 COMPARISON: DISEASE GROUPS DPT MMR Hep B Hib 40 30 20 10 Diseases Other Skin GIT Respiratory/ENT Neurological problems 0 Developmental and behavioural problems Percentage 50 The Variability of Clinical Trials of Vaccine Efficacy • Pertussis • (1) NH&MRC (2003) The Australian Immunisation Handbook, 8th Edition, p. 207. They suggest that pertussis vaccine is more than 80% effective through to six years of age, following three doses at 2, 4 and 6 months of age. • (2) Gustafsson L, et al, (1996) A Controlled Trial of a TwoComponent Acellular, a Five-Component Acellular, and a WholeCell Pertussis Vaccine. NEJM Vol 334:349-356 Feb. 8, 1996, No. 6 • (i) Two-component, acellular, DPT [efficacy 58.9% (95% C.I. 50.065-9)] • (ii) Five-component, acellular, DPT [efficacy 85.2% (95% C.I. 80.688.8)] • (iii) Whole-cell DPT [higher rates of crying, cyanosis, fever, local reactions than other 3 – efficacy 48.3% (95% C.I. 37.0-57.6)]. • DT (as a control). Vaccines given at 2, 4, 6 months of age, children were followed for signs of pertussis for an additional 2 years. Note: C.I. = confidence intervals • • • • • • • • • • • Measles (1) NH&MRC (2003) The Australian Immunisation Handbook, 8th Edition, p. 183. They suggest that measles vaccine is 95% effective after one dose, and 99% effective after two doses. (2) Puri A., et.al. (2002) Measles Vaccine Efficacy Evaluated by Case Reference Technique. Indian Paediatrics. 39: pp. 556-560. The relative risk was calculated to be 2.6, indicating that an unvaccinated child is 2.6 times more prone to develop measles as compared to a vaccinated child. Vaccine efficacy by case-reference method was 62%. This and similar findings show that efficacy is significantly affected by the general health of the recipient. Mumps (1) NH&MRC (2003) The Australian Immunisation Handbook, 8th Edition, page 183. They suggest that measles vaccine is 95% effective. (2) Schlegel M, et al, (1999) Comparative efficacy of three mumps vaccines during disease outbreak in eastern Switzerland: cohort study. BMJ; 319: p. 352 (7 August) Attack rate (AR) in unvaccinated people 63% (a common result) AR (vaccinated with) Rubini strain – 67%; Jeryl-Lynn strain – 14%; Urabe strain – 8%. Best efficacy – 84% - (C.I. 64 – 94%) This latter study shows that efficacy is heavily dependant on which strain of mumps the person is exposed to, and it can be significantly less than 95%. Summary of Conclusions * Vaccination does provide protection against many infectious diseases (a) The long-term success of vaccination programs has been overstated. (b) Most new vaccines are thoroughly trialled (but not always). (c) The effectiveness of vaccines seems high, but field results are variable. * The safety of vaccines is not known with certainty. (a) Short-term testing is undertaken, but results are not consistently reliable. (b) Long-term testing of single health effects is incomplete (c) Long-term testing of overall wellness has not been done. * Vaccination is a generally (but not completely) effective method of disease prevention, but the true long-term health consequences have not been researched thoroughly. * HP does provide protection against many infectious diseases. (a) Efficacy is mainly based on 200 years of clinical evidence. (b) What statistical studies have been done provide consistent results. (c) New data describing massive use shows very positive results. * HP is conceptually and clinically very safe. (a) The preparations contain no toxic materials. (b) Long-term studies show positive health effects. * HP is a generally (but not completely) effective method of disease prevention, with positive long-term health effects. U.S.A. - Whooping Cough Deaths from the onset of mass vaccination 1200 1000 Deaths 800 Deaths 600 400 200 0 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 Year 1974 1979 1984 1989 U.S.A. - Whooping Cough Deaths 10000 9000 Deaths 8000 7000 mass vaccination commences Deaths 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1923 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 Year 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988