Download Vaccination HP - brief lecture - Oct 2009b

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Presents: Isaac Golden PhD
The Safety and Effectiveness of
Homœoprophylaxis Compared to
Vaccination
This vaccine webinar series is paid for as a community service by Homefirst Natural Pharm Source
www.homefirst.com
The Safety and Effectiveness
of Homœoprophylaxis
Compared to Vaccination
Dr Isaac Golden PhD
Business Manager – Academic Operations
Endeavour College of Natural Health
Unresolved Questions
Agreement about
1 Protection?
2 Vaccine Safety
3 Vaccine Efficacy
4 HP Safety
5 HP Efficacy
General
Details
?
S/T X L/T
?
X
Decision Making Flowchart
IMMUNISATION?
GENERAL
Safety
DISEASE SPECIFIC
Efficacy
VACCINATION
Not Toxic
HOMŒOPROPHYLAXIS
Varies
Safety
Potentially
Toxic
Efficacy
75%–95%
Safety
Efficacy
Not Toxic
90.4%
Evidence of the Efficacy of
Homœoprophylaxis
1. 1798 Scarlet Fever – Germany – 100’s
2. 1998 Meningococcal Meningitis – Brazil 65,826 children (23,539 control group)
3. 2007 (2008) Leptospirosis – Cuba –
2,308,562 ; (2,212,000) people
4. 1985 to 2004 Common Diseases –
Australia – 2,342 annual responses
The Cuban Experience
• On October November 2007, three
provinces of the eastern region of Cuba
were affected by strong rainfalls causing
widespread floods severe damage to
sanitary and health systems. The risk of
leptospirosis infection was raised
extremely dangerous levels with about 2
million of peoples exposed to potentially
contaminated water.
Copyright Dr Isaac Golden, 2009
6
• The Finlay Institute prepared a leptospira
nosode 200 CH using 4 circulating strains
and following international quality
standards. A multidisciplinary team
travelled to the affected regions to conduct
the massive administration of the nosode.
Coordinated action with public health
system infrastructures allowed the
administration of a preventive treatment.
Copyright Dr Isaac Golden, 2009
7
• Prevention consisted of two doses (7- 9 days
apart) of the nosode to about 2.4 million of
people (4.8 million doses). The coverage of the
intervention rose up to 95% percent of total
population of the three provinces at risk.
• The epidemiology surveillance after the
intervention showed a dramatic decrease of
morbidity two weeks after and a reduction to
zero mortality of hospitalized patients. The
number of confirmed leptospirosis cases
remains at low levels, and below the expected
levels according with the trends and rain
regimens.
Copyright Dr Isaac Golden, 2009
8
A reinforcing application of 4,500,000 doses
was given in 2008 after the hit of the
hurricane IKE but using the nosode
potentised to 10 MC. Strict epidemiologic
surveillance was carried out on the
targeted provinces. Up to date results are
presented below.
Copyright Dr Isaac Golden, 2009
9
Leptospirosis Cases 2005 to 2008
450
400
350
300
250
IR Cases
RC cases
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Some Other Measures of the Effectiveness
of Homœoprophylaxis
Year
1907
1950
1963
1974
Researcher
Length Numbers
Eaton
< 1 year
2,806
Taylor-Smith
< 1 year
82
Gutman
1 year
Castro & Nogeira 3 months
385
HP 18,000
Not 6,340
Effectiveness %
97.5
100.0
86.0
86.1
1987 English
1987 Fox
1998 Mroninski et al
2 years
694 87.0 – 91.5
5 years
61 82.0 – 95.0
6/12
months
HP 65,826
Not 23,539
95.0 - 91.0
2004 Golden
15+ yrs
2,342
90.4
HP EFFICACY
• VE = ARU – ARV x 100
ARU
Disease
Whooping
Cough
Measles
Mumps
VE = Vaccine Efficacy
ARU = Attack Rate Unvaccinated
ARV = Attack Rate Vaccinated
Attack Rate,
Attack Rate,
Unvaccinated %
HP %
Efficacy of
HP %
85.0
11.7
86.2
90.0
70.0
9.0
5.9
90.0
91.6
Safety of Long-Term HP
15 Year Study (2,342)
General Health Survey (781)
1. Short term safety
Long term safety of HP only
1. Absolute safety of HP only
Odds ratio < 1 for every condition
studied:
2. Relative safety of HP only (P = Chi squared probability)
Safest for statistically significant
results
3. Accumulated parental rankings
of general health of their child; HP
only is associated with the highest
level of health over all rankings.
Reactions to 1.5% of
doses
Reactions typically
brief and mild
2. Long term safety
General Comments
by parents re:
general health of
child –
92.3% positive;
7.7% negative
Condit- Measure
ion: GP
ment
Diagnoses
Asthma
Method
HP-only
Vaccines General
only
only
Nothing
Odds Ratio
0.124
1.89
0.49
0.69
Chi Test P
0.0006
0.0007
0.13
6.5E-40
0.239
1.76
0.225
0.665
Chi Test P
0.0097
0.006
0.025
6.5E-40
Ear/
Odds Ratio
0.703
1.517
0.599
0.401
Hearing
Chi Test P
0.364
0.04
0.282
9.4E-41
Allergies Odds Ratio
0.307
1.518
0.446
0.608
Chi Test P
0.038
0.061
0.171
5.8E-40
Behavi- Odds Ratio
0.541
0.784
1.675
0.784
Chi Test P
0.055
0.613
0.049
1.2E-40
Eczema Odds Ratio
our
(a) Predicted and observed vaccine
effects
All Diagnoses
GP Diagnoses
Condition
Measurement HP only
Vaccination only
HP only Vaccination only
Asthma
Odds Ratio
0.117
1.75
0.124
1.89
Chi Test P
0.0004
0.0025
0.0006
0.0007
Odds Ratio
0.382
1.315
0.239
1.76
Chi Test P
0.0146
0.121
0.0097
0.006
Ear/Hearing Odds Ratio
0.917
1.149
0.703
1.517
Chi Test P
0.792
0.459
0.364
0.04
Odds Ratio
0.550
1.220
0.307
1.518
Chi Test P
0.074
0.239
0.038
0.061
Odds Ratio
0.446
0.869
0.541
0.784
Chi Test P
0.170
0.593
0.055
0.613
Eczema
Allergies
Behaviour
The Japanese Experience
Year:
Period:
1970-1974
61 months
1975-1981 1981-1984
79 months 40 months
Type of vaccine
First given
Whole cell
3-5 months
Whole cell
24 months
Acellular
24 months
Doses (Million)
25.1
19.8
20.4
S.I.D.
11
0
0
Other
Deaths
26
3
2
Other
Reactions
102
39
17
Percentage
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
MMR
DPT
Developmental
Learning
Autism/poor interaction
AD(H)D type problems
Anxiety/stress/bed
Epilespy
Sleep and associated
Other neurological
Other behavioural
Headaches/Migraines
Allergies
Sinus/nose
Throat/neck
Asthma
Recurring
Other respiratory
Ear/hearing problems
GIT problems
Arthritic/rheumatic
Skin problems
Screaming/continual
Weight loss/gain
Fevers
Listless/energy
Other problems
Acute reactions to
Comparative Analysis of the DPT
and MMR Vaccines
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS: DPT , MMR
Diseases
Comparative Analysis of Disease Groupings
60
COMPARISON: DISEASE GROUPS
DPT
MMR
Hep B
Hib
40
30
20
10
Diseases
Other
Skin
GIT
Respiratory/ENT
Neurological
problems
0
Developmental
and behavioural
problems
Percentage
50
The Variability of Clinical Trials
of Vaccine Efficacy
• Pertussis
• (1) NH&MRC (2003) The Australian Immunisation Handbook, 8th
Edition, p. 207. They suggest that pertussis vaccine is more than
80% effective through to six years of age, following three doses at 2,
4 and 6 months of age.
• (2) Gustafsson L, et al, (1996) A Controlled Trial of a TwoComponent Acellular, a Five-Component Acellular, and a WholeCell Pertussis Vaccine. NEJM Vol 334:349-356 Feb. 8, 1996, No. 6
• (i) Two-component, acellular, DPT [efficacy 58.9% (95% C.I. 50.065-9)]
• (ii) Five-component, acellular, DPT [efficacy 85.2% (95% C.I. 80.688.8)]
• (iii) Whole-cell DPT [higher rates of crying, cyanosis, fever, local
reactions than other 3 – efficacy 48.3% (95% C.I. 37.0-57.6)].
•
DT (as a control). Vaccines given at 2, 4, 6 months of age,
children were followed for signs of pertussis for an additional 2
years. Note: C.I. = confidence intervals
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Measles
(1) NH&MRC (2003) The Australian Immunisation Handbook, 8th Edition, p.
183. They suggest that measles vaccine is 95% effective after one dose,
and 99% effective after two doses.
(2) Puri A., et.al. (2002) Measles Vaccine Efficacy Evaluated by Case
Reference Technique. Indian Paediatrics. 39: pp. 556-560.
The relative risk was calculated to be 2.6, indicating that an unvaccinated
child is 2.6 times more prone to develop measles as compared to a
vaccinated child. Vaccine efficacy by case-reference method was 62%. This
and similar findings show that efficacy is significantly affected by the general
health of the recipient.
Mumps
(1) NH&MRC (2003) The Australian Immunisation Handbook, 8th Edition,
page 183.
They suggest that measles vaccine is 95% effective.
(2) Schlegel M, et al, (1999) Comparative efficacy of three mumps vaccines
during disease outbreak in eastern Switzerland: cohort study. BMJ; 319: p.
352 (7 August)
Attack rate (AR) in unvaccinated people 63% (a common result)
AR (vaccinated with) Rubini strain – 67%; Jeryl-Lynn strain – 14%; Urabe
strain – 8%. Best efficacy – 84% - (C.I. 64 – 94%)
This latter study shows that efficacy is heavily dependant on which strain of
mumps the person is exposed to, and it can be significantly less than 95%.
Summary of Conclusions
* Vaccination does provide protection against many infectious diseases
(a) The long-term success of vaccination programs has been overstated.
(b) Most new vaccines are thoroughly trialled (but not always).
(c) The effectiveness of vaccines seems high, but field results are variable.
* The safety of vaccines is not known with certainty.
(a) Short-term testing is undertaken, but results are not consistently reliable.
(b) Long-term testing of single health effects is incomplete
(c) Long-term testing of overall wellness has not been done.
* Vaccination is a generally (but not completely) effective method of disease
prevention, but the true long-term health consequences have not been
researched thoroughly.
* HP does provide protection against many infectious diseases.
(a) Efficacy is mainly based on 200 years of clinical evidence.
(b) What statistical studies have been done provide consistent results.
(c) New data describing massive use shows very positive results.
* HP is conceptually and clinically very safe.
(a) The preparations contain no toxic materials.
(b) Long-term studies show positive health effects.
* HP is a generally (but not completely) effective method of disease prevention,
with positive long-term health effects.
U.S.A. - Whooping Cough Deaths from the onset of mass vaccination
1200
1000
Deaths
800
Deaths
600
400
200
0
1949
1954
1959
1964
1969
Year
1974
1979
1984
1989
U.S.A. - Whooping Cough Deaths
10000
9000
Deaths
8000
7000
mass
vaccination
commences
Deaths
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1923
1928
1933
1938
1943
1948
1953
1958
Year
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988