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Is Sustainable Development Feasible? including (maybe) Hurricane Katrina: a development failure? Dr John C Mutter The world is "on an unsustainable trajectory. Politics is central but we have almost no politics on this issue. We're fighting all the wrong wars. We haven't even started to fight the wars on poverty, disease, and environmental degradation” J.D. Sachs 2006 the “gap between science and society is profound and extraordinarily dangerous ... These [issues of sustainability] are scientific problems first and foremost. We will require massive improvements in science and technology and their applications, if nine billion people are to live better lives. Without improvements, we'll have war and violence and benighted global disarray." By development we mean ….the challenge of spreading social, political and economic opportunity to the entire global community, particularly the poorest of the poor. By sustainable we mean …. ……managing the world’s development in a manner consistent with the continued healthy functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere and climate. The divide today rich poor GNP PPP/person population (billion) % increase/year % with HIV/AIDS $26,320 1.2 0.1 0.5 $4,450 5.3 1.5 1.4 infant mortality rate 6/1000 59/1000 children/woman 1.6 3.0 life expectancy 76 65 % urban 76 41 people/km2 24 64 Global GDP per capita for the last 3000 yrs Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted GDP Wealth Territory displayed in proportion to GDP China’s wealth doubles every 7 yrs India’s wealth doubles every 10 yrs (Source: www.worldmapper.org) Wealth increases Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate China’s wealth doubles every 7 yrs India’s wealth doubles every 10 yrs (Source: www.worldmapper.org) Wealth decreases Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate (Source: www.worldmapper.org) Living on less $10 a day Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate (Source: www.worldmapper.org) Living on less $1 a day Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate (Source: www.worldmapper.org) Kararo Ethiopia Disasters and the poorest Does this have to be? Collecting water near Kararo Ethiopia Disasters and the poorest Does this have to be? Can our science help people like this …… Kararo Village Ethiopia Can our science help people like this …… The UNDP Human Development Index (HDI) A summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in three basic aspects of human development: LONGEVITY -- life expectancy at birth; KNOWLEDGE -- a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio; STANDARD of LIVING -- GDP per capita (Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, PPP, in US$). HDI is a more comprehensive measure of deprivation than income. Young female illiteracy Growth in tertiary education Scientific research output (publications) Life expectancy at birth Infant Mortality Infant mortality Maternal mortality Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate HDI World distribution Development decreases Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate (Source: www.worldmapper.org) GDP vs HDI Territory displayed in proportion to wealth GDP HDI GDP per capita as a function of latitude. Poverty has a latitudinal dependence (J. Sachs) HDI versus latitude 70 HDI low est 40% HDI middle 40% HDI highest 20% 50 Latitude (negative indicates South) 30 10 -10 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 -30 -50 -70 HDI (1980-2000) 0.8 1.0 HDI versus latitude 70 HDI low est 40% HDI middle 40% HDI highest 20% 50 Latitude (negative indicates South) 30 10 -10 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 -30 -50 -70 HDI (1980-2000) 0.8 1.0 What causes this development gap? No chance correlation Environment matters to human well being Malthus was not entirely right Malaria mortality Regions burdened by malaria cannot achieve development Bad governance is only part of the problem Some corrupt countries do develop Most conflict regions today are poor CORRUPTION LEVELS COMPARABLE TO ASIA Economic Growth 1990-2003 China Africa Decreasing Corruption Increasing Corruption Bangladesh Nigeria Pakistan Kenya Indonesia Ethiopia Cambodia Vietnam Mali Tanzania Malawi 2.0 Senegal Rwanda 4.0 Ghana India 8.0 Uganda Asia Post-cold war conflicts wrt GDP as of 2004 Most conflict regions today are poor Conflict-related mortality Regions in conflict cannot achieve development of any kind Drought mortality Africa remains almost the only place where drought kills Drought in the Sahal More than a decade of persistent drought in area like HoA Climateand variability Conflict Droughtand Malaria risk in Botswana Environmental stress > Scarcity > Conflict Simple growth models From Kiminori Matsuyama Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development Simple growth models Growth Richer countries Poor countries Poverty traps Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development Poverty Trap A self perpetuating condition in the economy of a country in which poverty becomes the driver of further poverty Considered to be a low level equilibrium condition - a trap Many environmental factors can lead to the creation of poverty traps Poor countries are NOT embryonic rich countries waiting their turn; they have fundamentally different characteristics and must be treated differently Poverty trap causes • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Family child labor Illiteracy Debt bondage Under-nutrition/illness Low skill High fertility Subsistence Farm erosion (soil depletion) Common property mismanagement Crime Working capital Mental health Conflict Gender inequality Basic questions Can growth be sustained ? Can growth be achieved? Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development Can development be sustained? Can development be achieved? Can development be sustained? By prefacing with sustainable, we refer to the objective of managing the world’s development in a manner consistent with the continued healthy functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere and climate. To do nothing more than close the development gap between the top and the bottom (no growth at the top and no population increase) would mean a 4-fold increase in world economic output. Add 1.5 billion people (3 billion is more likely) and allow the top to continue to grow and prosper at current rates, then closing the development gap requires a 6 -Fold increase in world economic output. BUT …… Economic optimists note that since the industrial revolution the world economic output has increased 40 Fold (some say 50) and population has increased only 4 Fold. So, on average, we are 10 times better off than we were before the industrial revolution. No problem! But ……. the industrial era growth in prosperity has been very uneven (the great divergence) and was achieved at a time when resources needed for growth were essentially limitless. Ample evidence now suggests that limits are being approached and the ideal world development may be unattainable. Sustainability issues Hitting environmental boundary conditions that can turn off growth, perhaps very suddenly. System is deeply interconnected and non-linear and likely has cascading multipliers -- tipping points Limits may not signal their arrival -- collapse can be rapid with no precursor Climate Change, Water, Food and Agriculture, Biodiversity Energy, Urbanization, Population, Ecological debtors and creditors >50% in debt > 50% in credit Ecological footprint by region Neutral Water stress indicator Carbon dioxide emissions Carbon dioxide per capita 2002 per capita 2002 Carbon dioxide per capita by country Many measures of this sort abound in the literature all of which imply that the developing world cannot catch up to the top billion along the pathway that got us here without very alarming consequences for the future of the planet. Basic questions Can growth be sustained ? Can growth be achieved? Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development Can development be sustained? Can development be achieved? Can development be sustained? Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases 1. Disease Ecology Depends on Economics I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M. Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases 2. Economics Depends on Disease Ecology M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M. Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M. Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M. Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M. Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M. Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M. Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M. Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M. Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap Economic Growth Poverty Trap M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M. Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases … forms poverty trap Economic Growth Poverty Trap M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I. I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M. Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap The human health poverty trap Poor people are at greater risk of ill health and … … poor health increases the likelihood of becoming poor. Establishes a self-perpetuating state that differs from health issue for the rich